【电子书分享】国际期货:建立和使用全球模型-Internat
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标题（title）：International Futures: Building and Using Global Models
国际期货：建立和使用全球模型
作者（author）：Barry Hughes
出版社（publisher）：Academic Press
大小（size）：13 MB (1#897#42 bytes)
格式（extension）：pdf
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International Futures: Building and Using Global Modelsextensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system.
Finally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years.
Table of contents :
Cover......Page 1
INTERNATIONAL
FUTURES
Building and Using Global Models......Page ##Copyright......Page 4
Prologue......Page 5
Glossary I: Model Acronyms and Abbreviations......Page 7
Glossary II: Modeling-Related Concepts, Tools, and Databases......Page 9
Glossary III: Organizations, Projects, and Teams......Page 11
1
Introduction......Page 1##What Path Are We On?......Page 14
What Leverage Do We Have?......Page 15
How Do We Address Uncertainty?......Page 16
The Plan of the Volume......Page 17
References......Page 18
Identifying Concepts......Page 19
Recognizing Systems......Page 20
Assembling Data......Page 2##Understanding Past and Ongoing Global Transitions......Page 26
Making Fundamental Choices Concerning Model Type......Page 28
Building Algorithms......Page ##Making Choices at the Equation Level......Page ##Using Statistical Fit as a Guide, Not a Straitjacket......Page ##Considering Both Distal and Proximate Drivers......Page ##Looking for and Understanding Leverage Points......Page ##Using the Model and Exploring Uncertainty......Page ##Exploring Transformative Uncertainty......Page ##Verification, Validation, and Accreditation......Page ##Addressing Errors of Omission and Commission......Page 42
References......Page 4##Foundational Work......Page 45
The First Wave......Page 46
New Capabilities......Page 47
Integrated Assessment Models......Page 49
Comparative Use of IAMs......Page 50
Comparative Assessments of IAM Structures......Page 51
Status of and Challenges for Global Model Building and Use......Page 59
Coverage and Connections......Page 60
Transparency and Openness......Page 61
Challenges in Model Use: Dealing With Uncertainty......Page 62
Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)......Page 6##Other Integrative Analytical Initiatives......Page 65
References......Page 66
Structural Overview of IFs......Page 7##Data Analysis......Page 78
Creation of Scenarios......Page 79
Users and Uses of IFs......Page 80
Looking Ahead......Page 82
References......Page 8##Population......Page 88
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 89
Demographic Transitions......Page 91
Modeling Population, Especially Fertility......Page 9##Population in IFs......Page 96
Fertility Rate......Page 97
Mortality and Migration......Page 100
Limitations......Page 101
Comparative Scenarios......Page 102
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 104
Health Transitions......Page 105
Modeling Health, Especially Mortality......Page 106
Health in IFs......Page 108
The Distal Foundation......Page 109
The Risk Assessment Overlay......Page 112
Combining the Distal and Proximate Risk Drivers......Page 114
Other Important Health Variables......Page 115
Comparative Scenarios......Page 116
Education......Page 117
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 118
Education Transitions......Page 120
Modeling Education Progression......Page 122
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