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标题（title）：International Futures: Building and Using Global Models5 N: t+ {/ e8 r( n- `
国际期货：建立和使用全球模型( [0 h) p5 X$ a4 T. f+ F
作者（author）：Barry Hughes' d; U6 ~2 K8 H& ^' a3 p
出版社（publisher）：Academic Press# t) v% |5 ?6 L' ?3 @; a7 y
大小（size）：13 MB (1#897#42 bytes)8 e& w4 U, X7 [/ }! i5 p
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/ T e [$ k9 ~' Y/ N2 t1 {% [International Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system.
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" F K7 A: W7 V' t6 @; cFinally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years.
* S! ^, e; C/ a1 [0 BTable of contents : $ C: i; \2 Q) ^
Cover......Page 18 t6 j- ]* ] ]+ w# S+ J
INTERNATIONAL5 j6 A' |4 a( a2 y. v+ k- ]
FUTURES( M; r3 h! R" J- X( R' Q2 k
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* G# X+ z' P, ?/ _( e6 L; V- KBuilding and Using Global Models......Page ##Copyright......Page 4
3 T% ]' Z5 R1 w: z% N+ EPrologue......Page 5: A2 w2 E; b; {1 `2 l
Glossary I: Model Acronyms and Abbreviations......Page 7
- E) I: e+ ?1 u+ ~. ?8 BGlossary II: Modeling-Related Concepts, Tools, and Databases......Page 9
/ L8 f+ U- w8 G! @" AGlossary III: Organizations, Projects, and Teams......Page 11
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Introduction......Page 1##What Path Are We On?......Page 14: H0 ], y* \# S: T/ X! u6 Y! X; Y
What Leverage Do We Have?......Page 15
; v( Z, `9 }/ ]) u' b8 }How Do We Address Uncertainty?......Page 16
* K8 X( @5 ~# w9 `The Plan of the Volume......Page 17
" D1 @+ O# e `2 qReferences......Page 18: y: r4 a4 A, i+ }6 Q
Identifying Concepts......Page 19# b9 O/ s9 A+ ~$ z
Recognizing Systems......Page 20
6 T; [/ h5 l3 |4 SAssembling Data......Page 2##Understanding Past and Ongoing Global Transitions......Page 26; J- Z t# e9 E: t6 J- i
Making Fundamental Choices Concerning Model Type......Page 28+ F; T7 W7 H8 a- l& ]' `
Building Algorithms......Page ##Making Choices at the Equation Level......Page ##Using Statistical Fit as a Guide, Not a Straitjacket......Page ##Considering Both Distal and Proximate Drivers......Page ##Looking for and Understanding Leverage Points......Page ##Using the Model and Exploring Uncertainty......Page ##Exploring Transformative Uncertainty......Page ##Verification, Validation, and Accreditation......Page ##Addressing Errors of Omission and Commission......Page 42
% z2 ~# u. ~8 g* c% [/ e4 kReferences......Page 4##Foundational Work......Page 45
& }+ a$ a/ o U" w7 I" Q, @The First Wave......Page 46
Y* l; q- p+ p' h! j. u9 ZNew Capabilities......Page 47- g6 `1 x5 y' y
Integrated Assessment Models......Page 49
/ O% |* x4 u, R9 T$ }Comparative Use of IAMs......Page 50
, e1 w, v0 x( ]( C/ ]; o0 q6 v$ @Comparative Assessments of IAM Structures......Page 51
$ @3 |1 v+ e, e' U! iStatus of and Challenges for Global Model Building and Use......Page 59. D0 l- F- p% x+ q
Coverage and Connections......Page 60
: h* r/ a" d7 ~; W& p6 mTransparency and Openness......Page 61
' s# {+ E9 m. X9 w2 mChallenges in Model Use: Dealing With Uncertainty......Page 62
k/ z1 a& o" s, ]4 vShared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)......Page 6##Other Integrative Analytical Initiatives......Page 65
# a, ? E) _8 b1 Q5 i% `References......Page 667 a! ~' q8 p2 u8 e
Structural Overview of IFs......Page 7##Data Analysis......Page 78
7 l+ Q2 N% I: U% fCreation of Scenarios......Page 79
* H/ y9 w1 V9 f7 G" M) y8 p; X9 dUsers and Uses of IFs......Page 80
! ?. |# m) z; D7 hLooking Ahead......Page 820 j9 l* [$ D: J! W! Z
References......Page 8##Population......Page 88, X: v) R# K/ d# L3 M* ?" v9 c
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 89& `# ~3 K0 a) u. q
Demographic Transitions......Page 91
3 K1 D3 U1 O# P6 q+ B5 iModeling Population, Especially Fertility......Page 9##Population in IFs......Page 96, {' @6 W9 R$ K% U3 i5 K, V
Fertility Rate......Page 97
0 N4 ^3 Q( K4 m( iMortality and Migration......Page 100' L( _4 K; u' ]/ {& _9 W ]+ `
Limitations......Page 1010 t" K, g% X9 z- u6 I
Comparative Scenarios......Page 102
$ w( S+ d, H% a# D' L U7 m# v0 dConcepts, Structures, and Data......Page 104* K m* c; G/ a) P7 O
Health Transitions......Page 105
7 ~* I0 y t& t- s0 Q# jModeling Health, Especially Mortality......Page 106
) O+ h3 l& L+ E- D, CHealth in IFs......Page 1088 V: v3 e$ l3 J* m9 |7 E
The Distal Foundation......Page 109& C6 ?9 S W' m3 t
The Risk Assessment Overlay......Page 1121 C& Q/ N" j' k; g1 U# g
Combining the Distal and Proximate Risk Drivers......Page 1146 N4 ]) ]9 J0 ]* M# s1 X- A
Other Important Health Variables......Page 115
% x- Q1 H6 z/ j' hComparative Scenarios......Page 1166 P9 F! g/ r0 Y5 k! f$ Z' Z
Education......Page 117
! B+ W, ?3 Z, KConcepts, Structures, and Data......Page 1183 _% s s2 x T6 E
Education Transitions......Page 1201 U+ y& M8 n7 R \' [! W! t
Modeling Education Progression......Page 122+ N& T: W b0 N( q8 N0 e
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发表于 2020-7-3 08:19:39