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标题（title）：International Futures: Building and Using Global Models
; p7 t0 @. @- W7 c国际期货：建立和使用全球模型; ?$ E) x! E8 I8 o: h7 Q) p/ c
作者（author）：Barry Hughes
9 c% V+ L0 J c7 O' `$ X" w& R出版社（publisher）：Academic Press- T/ u. Q* \/ E0 A# C9 N
大小（size）：13 MB (1#897#42 bytes): l$ z. [5 x n' W
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) w7 H7 s$ W2 Y( F) N: k( w' LInternational Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system.
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Finally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years.
1 k( g" {3 ?0 A# Q( h# H8 }! n3 t: JTable of contents : 9 p- d5 I+ d+ J
Cover......Page 1& z/ u) ^/ x+ ^" i( D: Z( e) G
INTERNATIONAL# j! \$ w2 d0 ?3 i* ~! f* |
FUTURES, l* [- ]6 V0 r4 c! ^
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Building and Using Global Models......Page ##Copyright......Page 4
5 _8 a$ h5 q& Z6 T& ~Prologue......Page 5: m9 _* V1 G u7 w8 {4 q
Glossary I: Model Acronyms and Abbreviations......Page 7
: \8 R6 R S# D8 t: E2 Z6 |Glossary II: Modeling-Related Concepts, Tools, and Databases......Page 9
) r" \; p P! J( j1 v) N% Y8 lGlossary III: Organizations, Projects, and Teams......Page 11 N6 n' x" Q! @
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) s9 G( M( c2 _2 R! v+ v7 ]1 `& _Introduction......Page 1##What Path Are We On?......Page 14
) K$ o, Y; V" a& \2 B6 [# |What Leverage Do We Have?......Page 15
. R* q- P" Y# I& @) `: ~. hHow Do We Address Uncertainty?......Page 16
' T. }0 n. I9 w0 R% QThe Plan of the Volume......Page 17
0 k. i2 `6 O' b2 Q# U8 CReferences......Page 18% K4 [- C. d* o& k
Identifying Concepts......Page 19
* g+ o' ?7 V( ]+ vRecognizing Systems......Page 20
" a$ [: J& D2 a8 j) r0 LAssembling Data......Page 2##Understanding Past and Ongoing Global Transitions......Page 26
9 a3 T3 t2 a) P7 F5 {% F% OMaking Fundamental Choices Concerning Model Type......Page 28
7 c) ~2 L% u+ b8 w nBuilding Algorithms......Page ##Making Choices at the Equation Level......Page ##Using Statistical Fit as a Guide, Not a Straitjacket......Page ##Considering Both Distal and Proximate Drivers......Page ##Looking for and Understanding Leverage Points......Page ##Using the Model and Exploring Uncertainty......Page ##Exploring Transformative Uncertainty......Page ##Verification, Validation, and Accreditation......Page ##Addressing Errors of Omission and Commission......Page 42+ g! g9 v# M+ D# [9 y. R5 N
References......Page 4##Foundational Work......Page 45
! m( F* I- M; a2 K( Z8 ]The First Wave......Page 46
, Q% h7 L* Q- T0 g6 K HNew Capabilities......Page 47
( Y* M8 R' [$ K ~4 ]Integrated Assessment Models......Page 49) B* R I, g0 c0 q3 ^$ F8 m
Comparative Use of IAMs......Page 50
6 x0 ^8 c6 i, q# d1 K7 @Comparative Assessments of IAM Structures......Page 51( J8 _1 E, C8 }0 h+ L5 k
Status of and Challenges for Global Model Building and Use......Page 597 S4 O( y+ `8 j5 e" D% u, r
Coverage and Connections......Page 60
& q2 x6 ~7 V: MTransparency and Openness......Page 61
; _- S4 m4 Q0 Q3 XChallenges in Model Use: Dealing With Uncertainty......Page 626 q1 B5 E4 p6 E0 }) E4 f# n& a0 P
Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)......Page 6##Other Integrative Analytical Initiatives......Page 65
* \3 n' f$ m" @2 P* M- ^' j2 J( tReferences......Page 662 n& N2 K4 t/ ~9 d
Structural Overview of IFs......Page 7##Data Analysis......Page 781 F4 d S1 [) E5 D" _% P0 l7 M
Creation of Scenarios......Page 79
& u# r; X9 C' P7 G+ `Users and Uses of IFs......Page 80
4 \+ k* H+ @- T' T- TLooking Ahead......Page 82% F$ N/ f; L% R2 M
References......Page 8##Population......Page 889 \3 g9 l% b4 }! o, c
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 89
. t* j. ?7 r5 Z$ r7 J: cDemographic Transitions......Page 91
* i- ?4 V4 @/ a# O0 fModeling Population, Especially Fertility......Page 9##Population in IFs......Page 96
% r* M) m! \+ D& [5 j! BFertility Rate......Page 97
7 d' i9 G" y! x2 X1 Y, }. gMortality and Migration......Page 100
# }7 @3 U8 y* @ l8 @Limitations......Page 101
/ A7 c7 w- `2 k- q1 |4 tComparative Scenarios......Page 102
/ `6 {" w& r0 V, o) o' A6 d/ zConcepts, Structures, and Data......Page 104& ^. X' l1 \. A8 t" [: x* `6 d
Health Transitions......Page 105/ k* Q, A( u# n- |5 E) C( R9 ?
Modeling Health, Especially Mortality......Page 106/ P* c) ]) {6 h/ i1 M
Health in IFs......Page 108
: @4 x( p1 h7 WThe Distal Foundation......Page 1093 z2 S- B7 m" u1 E ^+ ?
The Risk Assessment Overlay......Page 112
# @. S% ?- k/ W# N) R( CCombining the Distal and Proximate Risk Drivers......Page 114
( j9 D: N" {4 Z) i/ o3 rOther Important Health Variables......Page 115, p- f' |- ^$ H
Comparative Scenarios......Page 116
' r- t/ c H2 C1 u0 R" r2 yEducation......Page 117
' M1 ~; Y* G6 L4 G/ VConcepts, Structures, and Data......Page 118! c" j6 p2 T c+ f6 W+ Z
Education Transitions......Page 1200 u$ Y' r% y- h9 B2 Q) G& v1 y: M$ H
Modeling Education Progression......Page 1223 P1 Q! h. c. C6 e& p3 O7 z9 i5 H
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发表于 2020-7-3 08:19:39