简单麦麦
) @" R, x7 g1 E6 e# [/ G下载链接： http://www.jiandanmaimai.cn/file/0/
5 x4 [1 H0 w( R3 x' v( N8 [' t标题（title）：International Futures: Building and Using Global Models* ~ A7 R" n6 p8 d8 N; ? o9 w
国际期货：建立和使用全球模型; a x7 e3 w, o0 R" s
作者（author）：Barry Hughes# V5 i& U! V+ C4 ]" k2 I/ H
出版社（publisher）：Academic Press
3 L* F" s7 [' {3 e x2 _; M$ ~大小（size）：13 MB (1#897#42 bytes)! d* q# e( A; M+ H
格式（extension）：pdf5 ]1 [% x7 _* }9 ]' U3 W& V0 x
注意：如果文件下载解压完成后为无法打开的格式，请修改后缀名为格式对应后缀$ m0 u. i2 c6 V1 l2 t8 f, `- \9 T
& `. G/ ^: ]5 p5 {. A
9 H1 H) e9 ~+ Q& C# z2 ~0 QInternational Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system.; L. e3 F9 X( G6 t: H- F- a& q3 E
y) G7 p' U" W/ u) o
: W h9 X1 p3 Y4 U: `3 p) ?Finally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years.
# ~7 P9 F) S5 [- V4 ]/ @+ h; f# FTable of contents : 9 h8 Z5 `6 @ m! _
Cover......Page 1/ T0 t" C0 ]9 w/ e$ F2 Y
INTERNATIONAL9 `5 X; k" u: C
FUTURES% z/ u, f' \8 c4 q
# _; c& A/ C' c1 Y* z! ^2 B
8 ?' u& D. r( H2 C/ PBuilding and Using Global Models......Page ##Copyright......Page 4& i4 {; A1 z* s$ x: S% o
Prologue......Page 5! z! w5 l; N; y6 E3 p- e4 F
Glossary I: Model Acronyms and Abbreviations......Page 7
& \" T# ]- b" ~( I0 \Glossary II: Modeling-Related Concepts, Tools, and Databases......Page 9
( S9 x+ Q) L- L' M3 JGlossary III: Organizations, Projects, and Teams......Page 11
) `0 e# u' o1 m7 |; [% \2 P, ~1
$ s2 C2 ~# I! U5 Z) gIntroduction......Page 1##What Path Are We On?......Page 14
" F5 c c' ?! u- S0 w# GWhat Leverage Do We Have?......Page 15& i! @5 J" k3 @2 P
How Do We Address Uncertainty?......Page 16
" f- i1 m0 m7 D" s1 ~9 ]4 uThe Plan of the Volume......Page 17
0 d, L6 y5 T7 k! |* }References......Page 184 Q" x1 J7 Z8 Y: K' K) ~) D/ a
Identifying Concepts......Page 191 h( d: o3 B/ k. B, }2 R, I
Recognizing Systems......Page 20
7 J$ T2 a5 U v8 OAssembling Data......Page 2##Understanding Past and Ongoing Global Transitions......Page 261 i; f$ Y- h6 ?" H# p/ D5 f
Making Fundamental Choices Concerning Model Type......Page 28# o! H6 I+ H0 V+ t9 i
Building Algorithms......Page ##Making Choices at the Equation Level......Page ##Using Statistical Fit as a Guide, Not a Straitjacket......Page ##Considering Both Distal and Proximate Drivers......Page ##Looking for and Understanding Leverage Points......Page ##Using the Model and Exploring Uncertainty......Page ##Exploring Transformative Uncertainty......Page ##Verification, Validation, and Accreditation......Page ##Addressing Errors of Omission and Commission......Page 42( q7 Q2 X3 u0 ]2 V3 _
References......Page 4##Foundational Work......Page 45
; k8 C2 \2 p3 e! I# ~! G9 [9 `0 UThe First Wave......Page 46
, p `1 H& x( a+ j5 GNew Capabilities......Page 47
$ S0 ^! N, s0 M* KIntegrated Assessment Models......Page 49
1 ?% I" @; w; x& V% }" LComparative Use of IAMs......Page 50
/ x( G) N, v: B, R8 s1 MComparative Assessments of IAM Structures......Page 51( s" J# [) O' Z' T
Status of and Challenges for Global Model Building and Use......Page 59
) b1 \6 b* N) o. J6 xCoverage and Connections......Page 600 r4 |# k7 ?* Y4 y" b, A' c$ D# d
Transparency and Openness......Page 615 c. t( `' O5 g$ O8 U
Challenges in Model Use: Dealing With Uncertainty......Page 62
. T3 R$ O# U. r$ M, _* R. D9 CShared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)......Page 6##Other Integrative Analytical Initiatives......Page 65
! \! w- e; g0 i/ N) o+ h4 ~References......Page 66
( ? I% i* G0 t. h/ JStructural Overview of IFs......Page 7##Data Analysis......Page 78- Q& v6 P2 t5 \) z
Creation of Scenarios......Page 79
" |; c4 X" F2 ^1 }7 z. q' M% O; D+ gUsers and Uses of IFs......Page 80
7 H6 U& _2 @8 e, h# Q9 v; qLooking Ahead......Page 82
' b) P( W; ~7 n$ bReferences......Page 8##Population......Page 88
/ x6 F) A- P( A7 UConcepts, Structures, and Data......Page 89
5 V5 ^( _6 \% j+ H: D ~Demographic Transitions......Page 91
/ {4 z/ s1 P5 MModeling Population, Especially Fertility......Page 9##Population in IFs......Page 96! p3 L; a h- j% a
Fertility Rate......Page 97
t/ y( r8 X+ qMortality and Migration......Page 100
1 V. m1 d3 C% C. |Limitations......Page 101+ H% e* U! S2 o* M8 y4 O" ?
Comparative Scenarios......Page 102
; T2 j6 [ F3 |, ?. k, QConcepts, Structures, and Data......Page 1048 N: c+ Z! Y4 q$ t
Health Transitions......Page 105
# A* G* ^% C/ k; Q+ J8 j% R# vModeling Health, Especially Mortality......Page 1061 f/ V; c) H" d: b9 o
Health in IFs......Page 108
& Q5 d! D3 `& m% KThe Distal Foundation......Page 109
' z8 T' f' U0 jThe Risk Assessment Overlay......Page 112$ H4 Z% d1 g! W8 `! P
Combining the Distal and Proximate Risk Drivers......Page 114+ n( i" _$ v* D* K( H7 r) r
Other Important Health Variables......Page 115
& Y( s* g! ?) |Comparative Scenarios......Page 116
$ B3 z* z( x7 ?7 dEducation......Page 117; {: Q: v8 w6 o" x! g$ N j
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 118/ r% w G) a4 i8 ]6 g
Education Transitions......Page 120
5 c' a# Q: r& S( jModeling Education Progression......Page 122
8 M8 M8 V5 k7 nE |
|手机版|Archiver|
( 桂ICP备12001440号-3 )|网站地图
发表于 2020-7-3 08:19:39