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S% F1 k, v' Y/ Y2 `& m标题（title）：International Futures: Building and Using Global Models
+ q& W3 {' Y) d# D国际期货：建立和使用全球模型
& E" ?6 q0 e; R# N# z作者（author）：Barry Hughes8 k# p5 [; u3 A" W
出版社（publisher）：Academic Press
/ I( P m! C$ u9 \) s* |大小（size）：13 MB (1#897#42 bytes)( z$ i7 \3 O V" D
格式（extension）：pdf
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International Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system.5 m& Z5 n! U# D9 p& x
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9 d8 r9 l1 @/ y. }1 a$ CFinally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years.3 v& m& a: z, [
Table of contents :
+ r. ~& G4 L* Z* Q5 aCover......Page 1
2 }+ U/ I& G7 E) U: yINTERNATIONAL8 q1 x1 F& R$ E, D
FUTURES
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9 }+ E8 j8 j" k) pBuilding and Using Global Models......Page ##Copyright......Page 4. o* W2 y" e4 B
Prologue......Page 5( S* c+ d9 K S
Glossary I: Model Acronyms and Abbreviations......Page 7
# Q6 Z3 b" @7 B0 e% zGlossary II: Modeling-Related Concepts, Tools, and Databases......Page 9
& b+ G; Q7 y' H6 _7 V BGlossary III: Organizations, Projects, and Teams......Page 11
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% h- O& X5 Y: C4 X9 Y) z" A0 h# xIntroduction......Page 1##What Path Are We On?......Page 14) F- T; L( [( [- I7 z; x: e/ @' v" n
What Leverage Do We Have?......Page 15" C3 F+ D. W+ a% R7 D( W
How Do We Address Uncertainty?......Page 16
/ s9 J1 K* ~9 _/ b! EThe Plan of the Volume......Page 17& Z- o% L ~# ]. J( f; L# ~
References......Page 18( [3 u. Q) a; Z0 S2 R5 ^
Identifying Concepts......Page 19& x5 v+ h$ o i) W9 U
Recognizing Systems......Page 20& y' Q& V+ `) C7 p) j3 K
Assembling Data......Page 2##Understanding Past and Ongoing Global Transitions......Page 26+ W; [9 Q- G/ P
Making Fundamental Choices Concerning Model Type......Page 28
1 v. D) K- W l; P0 j5 N$ \+ W6 JBuilding Algorithms......Page ##Making Choices at the Equation Level......Page ##Using Statistical Fit as a Guide, Not a Straitjacket......Page ##Considering Both Distal and Proximate Drivers......Page ##Looking for and Understanding Leverage Points......Page ##Using the Model and Exploring Uncertainty......Page ##Exploring Transformative Uncertainty......Page ##Verification, Validation, and Accreditation......Page ##Addressing Errors of Omission and Commission......Page 42# U, e+ ^. y; x b
References......Page 4##Foundational Work......Page 45* Z$ C8 Q* @9 b$ k+ c& N5 v
The First Wave......Page 46
! h. T0 l! H5 M9 y, h' f+ VNew Capabilities......Page 47
3 t: D4 Y6 h% L' E7 |* x3 a2 B. kIntegrated Assessment Models......Page 49. r5 D: b. z+ J" O
Comparative Use of IAMs......Page 50% C# y2 d( y, b* f
Comparative Assessments of IAM Structures......Page 51
# O, K: }# s3 W/ @Status of and Challenges for Global Model Building and Use......Page 596 E _# j; p3 E: O( s
Coverage and Connections......Page 60
H; Y% _9 r7 _# I7 \Transparency and Openness......Page 619 a2 f; C. j5 X/ X$ _% ~
Challenges in Model Use: Dealing With Uncertainty......Page 62
! z+ X: `' W ]0 B" A jShared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)......Page 6##Other Integrative Analytical Initiatives......Page 658 R) ^# c! ~7 i3 m/ s0 M' ?' |7 V
References......Page 66
1 }+ x2 g0 h4 M; E& _: bStructural Overview of IFs......Page 7##Data Analysis......Page 78
' O8 F1 W2 r) Z& t5 U. ]! ]+ ?5 WCreation of Scenarios......Page 790 t- K ~) o1 U4 M1 O @
Users and Uses of IFs......Page 80
/ s( z, ]' _7 j1 ]7 WLooking Ahead......Page 82& ?: G* L1 P% W8 f6 u5 F
References......Page 8##Population......Page 88
# j7 t, T# A7 VConcepts, Structures, and Data......Page 89 ]" J- G. K3 A9 z/ i$ y
Demographic Transitions......Page 91
) s% u+ S# e: N8 U1 KModeling Population, Especially Fertility......Page 9##Population in IFs......Page 96
( B! D0 \2 @3 ?& \+ g9 I( qFertility Rate......Page 97
' @+ r. [; Q- |- lMortality and Migration......Page 100. c( H0 x4 F; v, Z( G
Limitations......Page 101. |- X) W q7 h! E; {3 I( U' k
Comparative Scenarios......Page 102
9 C1 d( E3 T8 O4 {8 G6 N" Z5 E& kConcepts, Structures, and Data......Page 104$ z" l+ Q& u; _' ~5 E) }4 {
Health Transitions......Page 1055 _: ~. W3 V3 j' A
Modeling Health, Especially Mortality......Page 106' x1 k d# a: W% s$ F( P5 e% |8 v
Health in IFs......Page 1089 s2 C6 n% J9 m. R. S$ V6 h
The Distal Foundation......Page 109
3 i9 {+ @+ _2 {# nThe Risk Assessment Overlay......Page 112
% @3 t5 [1 n2 i7 R; Z+ M/ pCombining the Distal and Proximate Risk Drivers......Page 1149 r J. U1 e+ B/ n9 [
Other Important Health Variables......Page 1152 G1 l& {& u7 l4 @% N2 e
Comparative Scenarios......Page 116
+ T2 J$ _ x tEducation......Page 117+ ]1 e2 E F$ K" {: C$ ^3 B
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 118
! @9 [6 y, b. a& t4 mEducation Transitions......Page 120
" u8 ?- ~4 _; V' `6 B! OModeling Education Progression......Page 1226 s8 A3 p% n+ M5 L8 S
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发表于 2020-7-3 08:19:39