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& K9 X; u/ _- v p$ G) X5 t O标题（title）：International Futures: Building and Using Global Models
1 S. R2 M! K, X0 J7 a国际期货：建立和使用全球模型9 Z+ w+ q# a0 d% y* a
作者（author）：Barry Hughes
( x+ Y, G; I7 V" V出版社（publisher）：Academic Press
3 U6 i9 q Z' @ r! y9 m& u大小（size）：13 MB (1#897#42 bytes)
1 c6 B- v9 R% n格式（extension）：pdf
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! ]! b1 t( |$ a1 R) qInternational Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system.
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Finally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years.0 C& U( o6 o) n j: [# n: h
Table of contents :
8 D$ c: q; j8 A/ MCover......Page 1
/ f2 l7 Y- G, C rINTERNATIONAL
- l& @# {, A; T( IFUTURES3 H0 L! r4 p4 C6 {
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Building and Using Global Models......Page ##Copyright......Page 4
% C9 Z6 M8 S5 x4 vPrologue......Page 5" c: n6 A- @/ ^/ H4 _% C
Glossary I: Model Acronyms and Abbreviations......Page 7
/ Y$ p/ X; i9 a6 Q$ F. c3 ]Glossary II: Modeling-Related Concepts, Tools, and Databases......Page 9
. R' i% {: ]4 r$ Q( p1 {Glossary III: Organizations, Projects, and Teams......Page 11
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Introduction......Page 1##What Path Are We On?......Page 14
3 c/ i9 z8 {. v$ O* I8 ~( ^What Leverage Do We Have?......Page 15; v l1 Q& X) z1 o5 r; z
How Do We Address Uncertainty?......Page 16
7 L6 V# `, t1 V b& ?The Plan of the Volume......Page 17+ }, H8 _* [5 D" F+ H) n
References......Page 18
! ^: x- k8 O4 eIdentifying Concepts......Page 19
7 o* p2 v* `: i) mRecognizing Systems......Page 20
& I" {. g8 d3 w- Y/ R3 WAssembling Data......Page 2##Understanding Past and Ongoing Global Transitions......Page 26" ]& G; b4 ?- \, \8 j7 j$ c# x3 P3 h
Making Fundamental Choices Concerning Model Type......Page 28; f) x( ]( }1 C+ m# w
Building Algorithms......Page ##Making Choices at the Equation Level......Page ##Using Statistical Fit as a Guide, Not a Straitjacket......Page ##Considering Both Distal and Proximate Drivers......Page ##Looking for and Understanding Leverage Points......Page ##Using the Model and Exploring Uncertainty......Page ##Exploring Transformative Uncertainty......Page ##Verification, Validation, and Accreditation......Page ##Addressing Errors of Omission and Commission......Page 42
- |8 Y# c5 j9 }/ _- t% ~% h4 UReferences......Page 4##Foundational Work......Page 45
: @5 c2 i1 |$ V" WThe First Wave......Page 46
; l6 i- I3 X- B8 r# _New Capabilities......Page 47* a+ w- q& t+ E1 b( \
Integrated Assessment Models......Page 49
- I, V: s8 U/ O2 b, j- v! cComparative Use of IAMs......Page 50: ~" G ]$ ^6 }
Comparative Assessments of IAM Structures......Page 51+ H8 J% l6 P" y/ }. [
Status of and Challenges for Global Model Building and Use......Page 59
3 i3 P6 P; P$ S) i( b- @7 j; WCoverage and Connections......Page 60
2 M6 T; R9 ^ U' I4 zTransparency and Openness......Page 61
/ W0 e7 ^8 K: t, n+ j1 uChallenges in Model Use: Dealing With Uncertainty......Page 62
8 Q$ Q+ O% h* h' H. B4 XShared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)......Page 6##Other Integrative Analytical Initiatives......Page 65) z, n, f0 W! P, d/ ^7 y( u l1 \
References......Page 66
- W3 J4 S; K$ nStructural Overview of IFs......Page 7##Data Analysis......Page 78
- ?0 ^* }3 T% ?; q8 E2 oCreation of Scenarios......Page 79
8 l& H w1 {+ e/ b( H/ v$ ?* X9 E) UUsers and Uses of IFs......Page 80( B/ F* Q/ e5 c' j+ N2 Z4 ?
Looking Ahead......Page 82/ r/ u9 \5 q- x2 l8 g
References......Page 8##Population......Page 88
3 |6 V- ]) _/ L5 c: c( f3 x6 {" uConcepts, Structures, and Data......Page 89
% `8 l: g7 E8 b9 f6 f. n; k: YDemographic Transitions......Page 91* R9 D1 p8 f7 C U
Modeling Population, Especially Fertility......Page 9##Population in IFs......Page 96 C9 x- n: p2 K, f# {1 G* Q
Fertility Rate......Page 97* ~7 N( ^/ Q2 F
Mortality and Migration......Page 1000 K; E0 H: g: n J/ m- B7 S
Limitations......Page 1011 p0 H' l7 Z4 A% t9 b
Comparative Scenarios......Page 102# ]: ^, X1 Q9 b4 ~- u" s& T1 i
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 104
+ c3 u% J$ q' u J* {9 rHealth Transitions......Page 105
) }2 j% h3 s5 l! }* |2 o! MModeling Health, Especially Mortality......Page 106
" k1 r. g! }! B3 v0 ] NHealth in IFs......Page 108
5 ?$ _* \0 N7 } W8 @The Distal Foundation......Page 1094 Z, U8 K3 ~" _
The Risk Assessment Overlay......Page 112
5 P# P- q; ?- m: @+ `Combining the Distal and Proximate Risk Drivers......Page 114
* T4 E i& e H7 [, qOther Important Health Variables......Page 115
5 K6 h+ X Z6 z5 I8 gComparative Scenarios......Page 116
# {; E7 D0 r/ L$ _4 xEducation......Page 117
2 I h+ x3 S- b0 x1 W; h; m% ZConcepts, Structures, and Data......Page 118
+ e0 H) m) k- c, ~Education Transitions......Page 1209 Z8 G5 L4 |6 u8 r6 p
Modeling Education Progression......Page 1224 n5 V6 P2 d" I% r( G1 X
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发表于 2020-7-3 08:19:39