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: N; W6 M/ w' y/ \- U标题（title）：International Futures: Building and Using Global Models
# z/ d; c8 }* i: ?& |+ P7 E+ c国际期货：建立和使用全球模型9 N6 m; g$ l$ `0 [! d/ m& W5 I
作者（author）：Barry Hughes
; b( E: ~# R& T; [$ D9 p( ?出版社（publisher）：Academic Press) k! X! Q; ~1 r5 ^
大小（size）：13 MB (1#897#42 bytes)
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International Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system. U2 l9 @1 q4 @' o' N" n
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4 W& a% v* _ |0 s# v3 DFinally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years.
9 o! B8 u4 `& u& i- M! l6 nTable of contents :
9 t5 M- L7 T7 \1 P% ^8 }$ L' |Cover......Page 1
8 q* a! P6 F1 {, f9 k) `INTERNATIONAL! L8 j) Z; h- o6 a+ l" f
FUTURES- Y: L" t! z# {( d# l
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Building and Using Global Models......Page ##Copyright......Page 48 l+ I. m8 S. N N
Prologue......Page 5) k- n1 ]5 @0 E3 }6 C
Glossary I: Model Acronyms and Abbreviations......Page 7/ R6 C$ P" c2 w0 g
Glossary II: Modeling-Related Concepts, Tools, and Databases......Page 9
- @5 ^" Y+ c2 K6 Z+ c& SGlossary III: Organizations, Projects, and Teams......Page 11
8 w( b$ a& h' _6 U1# g# v' _7 P2 Y+ V3 x: g4 P' ^
Introduction......Page 1##What Path Are We On?......Page 14
' k7 K/ B$ P2 r4 }What Leverage Do We Have?......Page 15; t. ^) Z/ h' o E9 Q' H, P
How Do We Address Uncertainty?......Page 16
* G5 o& E; }$ H* k* hThe Plan of the Volume......Page 17& l# x7 o; I1 n/ G1 U, w. q$ @+ @
References......Page 18) ~2 S2 j9 a. r/ R5 v
Identifying Concepts......Page 19
1 K j7 h! a0 f! ^Recognizing Systems......Page 20
4 `* y9 z* G5 X9 K5 u1 gAssembling Data......Page 2##Understanding Past and Ongoing Global Transitions......Page 261 I7 E( ^0 f/ R2 Y E
Making Fundamental Choices Concerning Model Type......Page 28; X5 A! n h6 ~+ u# _# t" z8 X( E
Building Algorithms......Page ##Making Choices at the Equation Level......Page ##Using Statistical Fit as a Guide, Not a Straitjacket......Page ##Considering Both Distal and Proximate Drivers......Page ##Looking for and Understanding Leverage Points......Page ##Using the Model and Exploring Uncertainty......Page ##Exploring Transformative Uncertainty......Page ##Verification, Validation, and Accreditation......Page ##Addressing Errors of Omission and Commission......Page 42
$ ^$ ] m9 _6 ]5 A1 zReferences......Page 4##Foundational Work......Page 455 S$ V# F; u7 E0 E! {3 a; J$ i
The First Wave......Page 46- r! u- G% z! w! v9 E
New Capabilities......Page 47. \* L/ z) {7 ^
Integrated Assessment Models......Page 49
+ x" o- D! J' H2 e N' D. p: XComparative Use of IAMs......Page 50
9 ~% z5 G5 {( p. }( EComparative Assessments of IAM Structures......Page 51
7 g3 f% ]& ^" M) }Status of and Challenges for Global Model Building and Use......Page 59
3 y- K% X8 c- {# I& A/ \ P3 y& fCoverage and Connections......Page 60
& V& U) e1 h7 A$ hTransparency and Openness......Page 616 B+ _( [9 r. I; w0 |1 c4 K
Challenges in Model Use: Dealing With Uncertainty......Page 62, d5 U- i+ T- q* d
Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)......Page 6##Other Integrative Analytical Initiatives......Page 657 ]7 O& T( w, j. T6 r& K
References......Page 66- r F8 K7 [# k, H, |/ e, W5 O% V" s
Structural Overview of IFs......Page 7##Data Analysis......Page 78
7 _# x% Q H. s8 o8 v4 O* ~Creation of Scenarios......Page 79
- d/ n: A+ D* ] ?9 _7 c- vUsers and Uses of IFs......Page 802 M6 T2 Y1 W5 c! U% I
Looking Ahead......Page 82
+ j# `& G3 e3 l. ^. l: |0 c: MReferences......Page 8##Population......Page 88
! s* p0 j; s4 Q4 Z3 E h( {Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 894 m1 o" ]- m2 U" {
Demographic Transitions......Page 91
$ c) |7 Q$ \! j% }* Y2 }4 ?0 VModeling Population, Especially Fertility......Page 9##Population in IFs......Page 96
9 a, X; I; n5 BFertility Rate......Page 97
* J. T( I1 ~: [7 d/ S6 w& rMortality and Migration......Page 100
4 t$ s: S, X- O6 a# U9 @Limitations......Page 1015 E4 e N* w! V. S
Comparative Scenarios......Page 102! }6 y) A5 a% s9 S4 D6 f6 Z2 j
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 104
& k- K) f1 H4 L- pHealth Transitions......Page 1056 Q4 W; j' `# _$ j4 R- |
Modeling Health, Especially Mortality......Page 106/ A/ g6 S$ L- i) T3 C
Health in IFs......Page 108
$ n" Q( a% S* G. U' q2 g" Q+ ^The Distal Foundation......Page 109: |7 N7 B( e* |/ {
The Risk Assessment Overlay......Page 112
9 i4 y2 j3 k9 s& k; x/ _& KCombining the Distal and Proximate Risk Drivers......Page 114
L( t6 f/ \+ p) n! O+ l8 k) tOther Important Health Variables......Page 115
$ a7 [6 {4 L. R+ TComparative Scenarios......Page 116
2 u6 H& Q: z0 M. [- {3 K6 wEducation......Page 1175 L+ U$ r$ i0 [. s% d; Y
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 118
8 m) ]# I& B, J q& ~& ^! GEducation Transitions......Page 120- D/ ]/ O! M" q1 ]7 I+ x7 _+ R
Modeling Education Progression......Page 122. _% H5 q5 O: G
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发表于 2020-7-3 08:19:39