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标题（title）：International Futures: Building and Using Global Models1 j. C0 r" A+ S" Y; m
国际期货：建立和使用全球模型) F8 |& l) b* ? O( F; u
作者（author）：Barry Hughes
8 \8 Q& x6 M* e4 ]- Z出版社（publisher）：Academic Press
/ U: G5 m, x( E+ P大小（size）：13 MB (1#897#42 bytes)
! M5 Q1 o3 o, f% T @* R格式（extension）：pdf
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International Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system.1 `$ Y V) r( J& _# s+ }! e
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Finally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years.
3 p! T' `% G# o* c- f* k6 DTable of contents : ; x0 X4 k) [" Q1 y7 \# X/ x
Cover......Page 1! m1 `8 j7 w: ^, ?# J$ x$ `, `, `( I
INTERNATIONAL3 b6 w" m6 ]# i1 Q+ }8 Z, `% r
FUTURES
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Building and Using Global Models......Page ##Copyright......Page 4! z; c/ X3 _% t7 g" J9 t: T
Prologue......Page 54 r( L ~+ P( A- C$ u4 V- g4 a% Q
Glossary I: Model Acronyms and Abbreviations......Page 7
! \* ~# v, Z0 r0 H. X& LGlossary II: Modeling-Related Concepts, Tools, and Databases......Page 96 d* E, h! L3 Q( d! ?
Glossary III: Organizations, Projects, and Teams......Page 11
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4 O( n; u. I4 _" @7 f0 _' B# `Introduction......Page 1##What Path Are We On?......Page 143 |& B& _) \3 D0 ?- K
What Leverage Do We Have?......Page 15
7 E5 k5 ^$ j+ x) `' q: @5 H. t' B2 EHow Do We Address Uncertainty?......Page 16
, L2 d) d* \: EThe Plan of the Volume......Page 17 A0 T' @1 J% @! T# ?
References......Page 183 q4 ^* x/ ~( b# [ U; ?
Identifying Concepts......Page 19
+ W1 H& k# Z% s9 LRecognizing Systems......Page 20
; d( G0 j4 j" \Assembling Data......Page 2##Understanding Past and Ongoing Global Transitions......Page 26
2 O& U4 x0 }: I. Z- S' P AMaking Fundamental Choices Concerning Model Type......Page 288 C }. w6 z) V0 n3 i; @2 `
Building Algorithms......Page ##Making Choices at the Equation Level......Page ##Using Statistical Fit as a Guide, Not a Straitjacket......Page ##Considering Both Distal and Proximate Drivers......Page ##Looking for and Understanding Leverage Points......Page ##Using the Model and Exploring Uncertainty......Page ##Exploring Transformative Uncertainty......Page ##Verification, Validation, and Accreditation......Page ##Addressing Errors of Omission and Commission......Page 427 S: F6 h1 O- D V& ~% t4 b8 f" e
References......Page 4##Foundational Work......Page 45
3 U; C& J$ y h0 KThe First Wave......Page 46
4 q" ?- j: m* H3 C9 @4 kNew Capabilities......Page 47
( `( D, z9 X2 h9 R& v- }Integrated Assessment Models......Page 49
4 P2 r9 O7 b4 k/ ]6 o4 r$ lComparative Use of IAMs......Page 50
' ?" g2 C$ ^- C: I( ^& @Comparative Assessments of IAM Structures......Page 51
3 X/ T* A' V BStatus of and Challenges for Global Model Building and Use......Page 594 ]$ L T0 D- _; x
Coverage and Connections......Page 60
0 e/ x t' S% K4 E) VTransparency and Openness......Page 61: O& v! x1 B' X; P% f
Challenges in Model Use: Dealing With Uncertainty......Page 62( c( O5 H/ ]: _& `' E
Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)......Page 6##Other Integrative Analytical Initiatives......Page 658 I0 e C7 m& O8 Y
References......Page 66
8 O% F7 A; V0 NStructural Overview of IFs......Page 7##Data Analysis......Page 78
" z( S2 d/ S5 G! c9 G' XCreation of Scenarios......Page 79
2 e3 y& Q6 d& R; g# N: jUsers and Uses of IFs......Page 80
2 k: t a g, O* kLooking Ahead......Page 82
& K, x7 H' B2 @, l* A; LReferences......Page 8##Population......Page 88
6 J7 r9 A y' n( a( t3 n( l1 x5 ^Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 89+ g/ \4 h |9 e# T: I
Demographic Transitions......Page 91* S# V' w! t* r" d% {! X
Modeling Population, Especially Fertility......Page 9##Population in IFs......Page 96
1 p6 ]# H( U" M/ i7 QFertility Rate......Page 973 @, L$ H& ~' Q8 X$ P
Mortality and Migration......Page 100# r1 r6 S2 w Q; _# @
Limitations......Page 101; K4 {" o1 N' j1 N" t; y
Comparative Scenarios......Page 102/ N# P/ |5 {6 f8 o
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 104
2 M. C; }+ z# a8 I- fHealth Transitions......Page 105
4 j8 R( U" E. Y/ A3 i) v7 V9 j% {Modeling Health, Especially Mortality......Page 106
! {" X+ t& S; F1 r9 U! F8 u$ HHealth in IFs......Page 108
& k* {1 S& b2 K0 W1 D" ?& hThe Distal Foundation......Page 109 d) z9 y! T1 t
The Risk Assessment Overlay......Page 112& g5 Q9 |+ j3 s4 p6 O a
Combining the Distal and Proximate Risk Drivers......Page 114# a( x) K& v! U9 x- M: e7 l
Other Important Health Variables......Page 115 B+ ]% \3 u, A1 H5 s# C% ]- W
Comparative Scenarios......Page 1160 _+ k6 X. F# P% E U" T* Q& K% i4 P
Education......Page 1175 Y3 f9 R8 y& g: }
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 118
& S& D/ M/ e0 [. @Education Transitions......Page 120; |' C& H' {1 q
Modeling Education Progression......Page 122
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发表于 2020-7-3 08:19:39