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7 A/ {) ~$ A, i! ?2 r }标题（title）：International Futures: Building and Using Global Models5 \, \3 c* R* t' m5 q$ H+ F
国际期货：建立和使用全球模型* d, I! \% A" v/ W l0 l: ~' d- ]
作者（author）：Barry Hughes, p5 B6 H1 _% r
出版社（publisher）：Academic Press
# }3 y6 o3 Y3 c) L大小（size）：13 MB (1#897#42 bytes): v0 h% i' ~! t: [+ d2 r) s$ v9 d$ p
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International Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system. L( e) V- y, ?9 @. j/ K
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2 _' E2 H$ ~3 z( C1 w4 k, ~Finally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years.7 c( I. Y7 J" P5 C0 _$ p( y
Table of contents :
& a" E/ _! G; F) c) b) l1 CCover......Page 1
5 V0 S* S- S4 R2 w/ @INTERNATIONAL# j/ ], o7 y7 a. P% o# b7 _
FUTURES4 P3 M( |& U3 D3 }' b# h2 T c
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$ ]; g8 F( W5 B# l: n% yBuilding and Using Global Models......Page ##Copyright......Page 47 W( j. M5 v: Q8 J, r
Prologue......Page 5
( L/ K% l9 N) `7 ^4 I/ [ LGlossary I: Model Acronyms and Abbreviations......Page 7
* J$ z o, ^ x0 `: h7 IGlossary II: Modeling-Related Concepts, Tools, and Databases......Page 9& i+ {1 ~5 r8 w5 W
Glossary III: Organizations, Projects, and Teams......Page 11$ U! X- r* c3 y
1
! q* f" K1 A) T( DIntroduction......Page 1##What Path Are We On?......Page 148 a0 l" W8 x. C3 n; `/ v
What Leverage Do We Have?......Page 15; [7 s6 Y$ a5 c: C6 ]+ ^: P" W4 _
How Do We Address Uncertainty?......Page 16& S0 r( w z) Z
The Plan of the Volume......Page 17" S' F* c7 e' J2 E) w
References......Page 18% _5 z' R( _* z; W& l( `
Identifying Concepts......Page 19
) r3 D& u* t, |* c. i0 PRecognizing Systems......Page 20
8 q1 |' m- t) x$ n# pAssembling Data......Page 2##Understanding Past and Ongoing Global Transitions......Page 26& ^, l5 v6 ~5 Z5 y7 l; t( s; X) j
Making Fundamental Choices Concerning Model Type......Page 28
4 l6 {( j9 l' b: T: KBuilding Algorithms......Page ##Making Choices at the Equation Level......Page ##Using Statistical Fit as a Guide, Not a Straitjacket......Page ##Considering Both Distal and Proximate Drivers......Page ##Looking for and Understanding Leverage Points......Page ##Using the Model and Exploring Uncertainty......Page ##Exploring Transformative Uncertainty......Page ##Verification, Validation, and Accreditation......Page ##Addressing Errors of Omission and Commission......Page 429 N$ g2 o( A' U5 F' R' Z
References......Page 4##Foundational Work......Page 45
5 z; d6 N7 x+ o F) e% B! S3 xThe First Wave......Page 46* x( }& ?! Y* o; d& c
New Capabilities......Page 47
" U. C! T1 r/ ]$ N3 F* _Integrated Assessment Models......Page 49
/ p+ q S1 w0 VComparative Use of IAMs......Page 50$ d: ~6 i( R, T( k
Comparative Assessments of IAM Structures......Page 51! Q5 Y( M9 H8 t3 O+ n* ?8 W c' h% H
Status of and Challenges for Global Model Building and Use......Page 59
9 C5 ^# a0 `3 ^( c& B+ u9 N( g9 TCoverage and Connections......Page 60
$ h* `7 g. Z7 r2 oTransparency and Openness......Page 612 Q0 V! C) t& [0 y; U( ?4 g
Challenges in Model Use: Dealing With Uncertainty......Page 629 u' A9 f& e Q6 z& G6 f& E
Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)......Page 6##Other Integrative Analytical Initiatives......Page 65
; V; U6 O0 Q9 \1 @3 B( |) NReferences......Page 662 _* i1 }' v) }4 M- U1 _1 \
Structural Overview of IFs......Page 7##Data Analysis......Page 78
/ Y1 t) h/ {+ y2 d9 g6 X$ @; e, sCreation of Scenarios......Page 79
0 k( n1 i2 ]5 y" X9 R( x1 `( uUsers and Uses of IFs......Page 80
9 s z; A+ j2 C6 i0 M: iLooking Ahead......Page 82
# z/ M8 i# r. u+ U% f) N% e# {$ MReferences......Page 8##Population......Page 88
, m0 `" B% W8 r. {' T0 tConcepts, Structures, and Data......Page 89& y$ p$ Q: _" s+ c9 U3 g
Demographic Transitions......Page 911 J% {7 J6 |% x( }) y$ g# J! H- r
Modeling Population, Especially Fertility......Page 9##Population in IFs......Page 96: F: W0 u y1 k! b
Fertility Rate......Page 97
4 x3 U r# t5 ]8 D( _" IMortality and Migration......Page 100
0 y2 X8 \6 P- Q9 c: k7 vLimitations......Page 101
/ o* \% Z! e6 a0 T$ ^Comparative Scenarios......Page 102
# d# r8 U' R; j5 [% v/ IConcepts, Structures, and Data......Page 104
* ]) @4 `% Y3 u8 t( i3 L/ }Health Transitions......Page 105
0 b" i. G: O0 R: X1 `6 u' FModeling Health, Especially Mortality......Page 106
; D. x8 ]. J3 kHealth in IFs......Page 1083 x$ a. Q7 x' I* C
The Distal Foundation......Page 109
. f1 D4 g" Z1 f9 K( o# bThe Risk Assessment Overlay......Page 112+ g4 ~+ ]/ w) V8 j/ `
Combining the Distal and Proximate Risk Drivers......Page 114
3 a' c- Y! R0 |6 ^& b4 w# qOther Important Health Variables......Page 115
3 P0 G! V; g2 R w% ^Comparative Scenarios......Page 116% v* f6 L8 Y \' J2 O* l& ?
Education......Page 117! ]5 G9 x, @3 ^7 H' y$ _$ n- e
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 118
4 P( \. d9 Y1 l s( C6 a: dEducation Transitions......Page 120
: R) z1 z6 b; M( ?/ LModeling Education Progression......Page 122
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发表于 2020-7-3 08:19:39