简单麦麦9 B' M" s+ ~2 r$ |
下载链接： http://www.jiandanmaimai.cn/file/0/
$ |* b. y1 `. g6 a$ U1 W; v5 g标题（title）：International Futures: Building and Using Global Models
3 z- J4 J& P6 J% p x) S4 A国际期货：建立和使用全球模型
0 Z& M5 K2 _' j) R# y3 t# b: R8 m4 V作者（author）：Barry Hughes5 m0 E4 V! S+ q. b. o+ c& A, _& e
出版社（publisher）：Academic Press
- ^8 p# r4 k I大小（size）：13 MB (1#897#42 bytes)
' F( h5 F' `0 @. o$ D2 c z/ n7 f% j格式（extension）：pdf4 v0 s3 B5 o2 } G, e
注意：如果文件下载解压完成后为无法打开的格式，请修改后缀名为格式对应后缀
: o I- h$ e) ^& u
5 K, L$ F5 K% }) u' ]! @/ x7 F( R& J3 V: L
International Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system.) s+ _3 v: `4 X: r0 H
7 o# o. V: p/ J7 y, s
% c+ }6 S: y, W8 ^Finally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years.
8 {+ T! N: O3 Q; u+ lTable of contents : # }3 N' b, z1 |" F
Cover......Page 1/ \* M1 L5 n2 Z
INTERNATIONAL" Y. W. m) w; W/ T
FUTURES1 ]" K4 c6 Z$ F# s) K
- L- g# K' i1 m5 f" H- g
# _; m4 I# P! x+ @2 @+ p: c$ q7 nBuilding and Using Global Models......Page ##Copyright......Page 4* ?7 E; `& G5 E* E& r6 U
Prologue......Page 5
6 l: u8 {* _6 }! I! KGlossary I: Model Acronyms and Abbreviations......Page 7+ `0 i& V9 u6 w; s' [
Glossary II: Modeling-Related Concepts, Tools, and Databases......Page 9
) V' i2 ]/ o" d3 \Glossary III: Organizations, Projects, and Teams......Page 11
/ T9 I* R8 c, E3 a5 A9 W0 z1
3 l) F! R( z( C9 VIntroduction......Page 1##What Path Are We On?......Page 14
( g' N. ^6 c6 Q( E- e. D/ TWhat Leverage Do We Have?......Page 152 u: m& ^1 C1 J
How Do We Address Uncertainty?......Page 16" y/ n1 I$ I3 g0 n, N$ d* q. s- h/ O
The Plan of the Volume......Page 17
4 V9 X) B, O7 S5 y x9 KReferences......Page 18
d8 w0 e9 d, B2 \Identifying Concepts......Page 19+ H" r* K: t" G$ u1 m
Recognizing Systems......Page 20% l2 k/ s/ m/ S3 b& y7 D9 X# v
Assembling Data......Page 2##Understanding Past and Ongoing Global Transitions......Page 26
! `! w- m# p6 SMaking Fundamental Choices Concerning Model Type......Page 28
( H' `" ?' l2 M' ^8 P$ HBuilding Algorithms......Page ##Making Choices at the Equation Level......Page ##Using Statistical Fit as a Guide, Not a Straitjacket......Page ##Considering Both Distal and Proximate Drivers......Page ##Looking for and Understanding Leverage Points......Page ##Using the Model and Exploring Uncertainty......Page ##Exploring Transformative Uncertainty......Page ##Verification, Validation, and Accreditation......Page ##Addressing Errors of Omission and Commission......Page 42/ ^4 t# {- m# w" ]5 S' w4 L
References......Page 4##Foundational Work......Page 45, j( ~' x' L' b2 s
The First Wave......Page 46
# }4 d% K# v" j6 SNew Capabilities......Page 47
p6 h! x- u$ o0 Z0 }4 AIntegrated Assessment Models......Page 49
# b( P7 ~6 n* f, c% `Comparative Use of IAMs......Page 50
5 k8 {4 ]1 _' x, U0 G& g; @6 zComparative Assessments of IAM Structures......Page 51+ U7 G" w2 y8 b% x& q: |
Status of and Challenges for Global Model Building and Use......Page 59* {# @/ K- s+ p# t6 `) u
Coverage and Connections......Page 60
3 f" C( M$ K( `. _6 k7 I0 pTransparency and Openness......Page 61
9 m2 h2 U% @; F3 Q3 Y" mChallenges in Model Use: Dealing With Uncertainty......Page 62: @, O) ]% K: e2 N
Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)......Page 6##Other Integrative Analytical Initiatives......Page 65 n2 m+ u p6 d: w+ O
References......Page 66, x4 M$ U+ }: r; W" ?1 p( U
Structural Overview of IFs......Page 7##Data Analysis......Page 78$ J6 j3 C/ `8 T) P
Creation of Scenarios......Page 79
( }. T' y+ b5 ~' L) RUsers and Uses of IFs......Page 80
6 W9 c3 d! I* w) BLooking Ahead......Page 82
" A I, C( n% R. D4 [2 O2 uReferences......Page 8##Population......Page 88
7 n1 c3 m) O" P lConcepts, Structures, and Data......Page 89; Z2 T+ X" o- v5 c W
Demographic Transitions......Page 910 G' T3 o# I5 L1 s+ w: D" L$ k
Modeling Population, Especially Fertility......Page 9##Population in IFs......Page 96
0 N6 F: U# V4 @! AFertility Rate......Page 97/ o9 n0 X" \: L. I' N
Mortality and Migration......Page 100
2 J* J& Y$ K1 F# Q FLimitations......Page 101" C. }% f( R* H& P6 }8 d
Comparative Scenarios......Page 102
& u' @& V! ^: J dConcepts, Structures, and Data......Page 1040 n4 ?) }5 p# n0 V! N
Health Transitions......Page 105
" r2 d4 v$ \+ s0 E6 qModeling Health, Especially Mortality......Page 106* G& x% z$ b1 @: h) g
Health in IFs......Page 108 j4 N# g& U2 c! B+ l/ f
The Distal Foundation......Page 1091 n$ V. [! u! T/ N8 B( y
The Risk Assessment Overlay......Page 112' j; @- ?& I5 R# G
Combining the Distal and Proximate Risk Drivers......Page 114
. o" o. e8 ?0 s' VOther Important Health Variables......Page 115! ~3 D8 t1 O1 l) [
Comparative Scenarios......Page 116
" h- L" X7 w9 eEducation......Page 1178 D% f8 Z5 ^' x+ J1 L7 k
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 118) Q# Z8 C5 R) I$ Z" D% T$ q* t0 C2 `
Education Transitions......Page 120) H0 q6 v! O2 _; T" K
Modeling Education Progression......Page 122
5 ~ P" ^. |+ n3 c2 A G) o8 wE |
|手机版|Archiver|
( 桂ICP备12001440号-3 )|网站地图
发表于 2020-7-3 08:19:39