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4 Z. J3 R: `( M) p# C标题（title）：International Futures: Building and Using Global Models3 u" C' @: u. G3 V8 O2 D6 T
国际期货：建立和使用全球模型9 V2 t) b% V2 ~
作者（author）：Barry Hughes
& E8 j; Z9 A, C& o出版社（publisher）：Academic Press
. {9 j% u( m; ^" J8 ?3 P h, U大小（size）：13 MB (1#897#42 bytes); |; {/ @ ?% O+ W% d5 K- @
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International Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system.
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+ a3 b) T6 m( z' Q/ CFinally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years.
( ?4 A& w! S* p$ q; S! s$ @% q; UTable of contents :
7 n( w' d5 V( O' ?" a6 JCover......Page 1
" }$ A8 J4 U2 OINTERNATIONAL
5 o( \& H. n9 O2 g: JFUTURES
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% m8 ]8 X* y9 c$ L5 |0 wBuilding and Using Global Models......Page ##Copyright......Page 4
' l! V1 }# O" d( U- C* dPrologue......Page 50 M" @' V& Z; V; D+ h" p
Glossary I: Model Acronyms and Abbreviations......Page 7
' H# o& x# m) a1 U. _Glossary II: Modeling-Related Concepts, Tools, and Databases......Page 9: p$ i* ~7 a8 O& H$ @
Glossary III: Organizations, Projects, and Teams......Page 11
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w1 E2 i8 P. T# i1 p' Z4 yIntroduction......Page 1##What Path Are We On?......Page 14
* w* T, m( Z) m/ Z; JWhat Leverage Do We Have?......Page 15' ~1 V- N" U8 v$ J2 w; Q4 {
How Do We Address Uncertainty?......Page 16
i/ }5 _. d9 YThe Plan of the Volume......Page 175 z6 H2 [8 U; J% o/ x
References......Page 18
1 Z2 m7 N2 E! fIdentifying Concepts......Page 19
# M1 N9 @( K8 O* bRecognizing Systems......Page 20
4 m$ g7 C9 s( ~4 z- U/ CAssembling Data......Page 2##Understanding Past and Ongoing Global Transitions......Page 26$ R; t" O6 h7 B
Making Fundamental Choices Concerning Model Type......Page 28
2 t* x7 `) v4 |+ OBuilding Algorithms......Page ##Making Choices at the Equation Level......Page ##Using Statistical Fit as a Guide, Not a Straitjacket......Page ##Considering Both Distal and Proximate Drivers......Page ##Looking for and Understanding Leverage Points......Page ##Using the Model and Exploring Uncertainty......Page ##Exploring Transformative Uncertainty......Page ##Verification, Validation, and Accreditation......Page ##Addressing Errors of Omission and Commission......Page 42
/ r& d, h; E5 i* f/ N# Z* oReferences......Page 4##Foundational Work......Page 45
" R8 C& V8 j& y9 H( t, r# b" o/ ]The First Wave......Page 46- J" T# G" S5 p+ y; }: d
New Capabilities......Page 47
8 J& M/ F/ e# o1 G0 A# o9 s2 EIntegrated Assessment Models......Page 49
5 u0 g- \- _! o* g1 GComparative Use of IAMs......Page 50
# i, m* Z; n! F+ P+ A8 GComparative Assessments of IAM Structures......Page 516 |0 c5 B+ U# [2 X7 M. F
Status of and Challenges for Global Model Building and Use......Page 59. O/ t4 F$ ^ D
Coverage and Connections......Page 60
N1 b8 R' \9 n9 UTransparency and Openness......Page 61
+ y# v8 I3 _9 q6 Z7 C1 m" SChallenges in Model Use: Dealing With Uncertainty......Page 62
8 [, L3 l6 Q+ r( D jShared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)......Page 6##Other Integrative Analytical Initiatives......Page 65. t6 q3 l3 A: d* H r3 x) x
References......Page 66. `& ^ g; }. @6 y5 a0 }3 ?
Structural Overview of IFs......Page 7##Data Analysis......Page 784 T# Q$ ?$ N2 p% @) D+ L( z d! g
Creation of Scenarios......Page 797 Q s' i1 @ N
Users and Uses of IFs......Page 80
) i$ @% l* e2 t" M4 FLooking Ahead......Page 82. b. E$ {& O! m: I i/ p
References......Page 8##Population......Page 88
! P5 W p' W* LConcepts, Structures, and Data......Page 89
6 G/ e3 L, E- q" O) EDemographic Transitions......Page 917 N" }6 ?& U/ s- l, y, {4 c1 b' a
Modeling Population, Especially Fertility......Page 9##Population in IFs......Page 967 y2 F! \+ a7 B- H. a
Fertility Rate......Page 977 `! b, o* M3 k; N
Mortality and Migration......Page 100
$ o( s' U, Z% ^Limitations......Page 101, O" f2 W+ a7 ]; D, K1 F8 X
Comparative Scenarios......Page 102
, ^5 s" V. v7 h2 Z4 t# F7 w$ A* p$ xConcepts, Structures, and Data......Page 1042 X+ P0 h+ I# T, Q& h6 e5 A; Q
Health Transitions......Page 105" b) C$ U# Q% x- G
Modeling Health, Especially Mortality......Page 106
" L6 C6 J; A" v* C9 o! NHealth in IFs......Page 108
% V8 t# @$ ?* V& d* `4 JThe Distal Foundation......Page 109
! ?$ u7 k. j+ N' d. U$ W. lThe Risk Assessment Overlay......Page 112
4 d) L9 a& J5 o: Q2 g6 ZCombining the Distal and Proximate Risk Drivers......Page 114% Z; X3 o: c6 V' g1 |& V2 g/ U
Other Important Health Variables......Page 115
. x0 p% D5 b `* @$ gComparative Scenarios......Page 116
% R, n* {' p$ E) c: |' @% }Education......Page 117
% v2 G2 L: L( `2 wConcepts, Structures, and Data......Page 118
- L* j7 |9 f. M$ i& DEducation Transitions......Page 120
% h8 @8 {+ z) w- R* e+ BModeling Education Progression......Page 122
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发表于 2020-7-3 08:19:39