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标题（title）：International Futures: Building and Using Global Models" E6 j& o$ b( ~6 l( T
国际期货：建立和使用全球模型! q" \3 z# l1 R" M+ u
作者（author）：Barry Hughes
5 r* K9 G; p6 m. H) d+ k5 _1 y/ _' i出版社（publisher）：Academic Press
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N' h: l: p: G/ V5 s7 ^International Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system.' [9 o* V- S Q/ R. ~
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9 _, M+ p! w4 d0 n9 YFinally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years.
" M1 _+ [; T+ w/ z& i: QTable of contents : 9 ~' O: p3 v# |5 }- z4 _! ^: n* c) Z
Cover......Page 1$ b( J& c7 D; i% }1 ?: p6 i; j# W: l
INTERNATIONAL! i N0 Y* Z/ d: z/ W- N' L
FUTURES- w n/ z( D, I' ]- y& i- s( a
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Building and Using Global Models......Page ##Copyright......Page 4
; ?8 v# w9 M1 K* L& I; @Prologue......Page 5# s: D% b0 W3 y; {
Glossary I: Model Acronyms and Abbreviations......Page 7
4 {$ d9 L1 j5 c( |: hGlossary II: Modeling-Related Concepts, Tools, and Databases......Page 9
# X) p( l0 E: C# b% h1 Z, v* ZGlossary III: Organizations, Projects, and Teams......Page 11$ V# A, u& n# D
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Introduction......Page 1##What Path Are We On?......Page 143 E& v: ?* w$ x
What Leverage Do We Have?......Page 156 ]! t/ f2 D7 O5 h9 E
How Do We Address Uncertainty?......Page 162 P( m! M6 k, l) R$ D
The Plan of the Volume......Page 17$ ?! I# ~5 n7 a
References......Page 18) {9 q8 d# {' e6 c) p4 j( L) W
Identifying Concepts......Page 19
! |# [6 r$ p n1 n0 K' z! h/ YRecognizing Systems......Page 200 m4 W( T- p6 t& r* r* K. q; r
Assembling Data......Page 2##Understanding Past and Ongoing Global Transitions......Page 26
" F2 z6 z' g( r5 I t* A6 _Making Fundamental Choices Concerning Model Type......Page 288 c$ P: U) R, o( x) n+ Y4 z
Building Algorithms......Page ##Making Choices at the Equation Level......Page ##Using Statistical Fit as a Guide, Not a Straitjacket......Page ##Considering Both Distal and Proximate Drivers......Page ##Looking for and Understanding Leverage Points......Page ##Using the Model and Exploring Uncertainty......Page ##Exploring Transformative Uncertainty......Page ##Verification, Validation, and Accreditation......Page ##Addressing Errors of Omission and Commission......Page 42
* ]% j+ X; n4 R7 }4 I y" M& _# B, @References......Page 4##Foundational Work......Page 45
8 ~4 T( J0 x+ @: J5 ~The First Wave......Page 46
" m3 |; E) ^( u( c, }% PNew Capabilities......Page 47. U& |9 h4 b. A( ?" G
Integrated Assessment Models......Page 495 x7 A, K2 v# T# X
Comparative Use of IAMs......Page 50
; Y+ w* |& Y) }' a! HComparative Assessments of IAM Structures......Page 515 m: P1 Q# C+ g+ {
Status of and Challenges for Global Model Building and Use......Page 59' W; i6 b. L" A5 F/ T1 ~
Coverage and Connections......Page 601 F6 U: J8 Q' O
Transparency and Openness......Page 61+ |1 }& M1 ^1 W+ c+ f& b
Challenges in Model Use: Dealing With Uncertainty......Page 62) L" {* L9 I7 g! ]% ]2 i- h& Y
Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)......Page 6##Other Integrative Analytical Initiatives......Page 65: m, M2 V9 b7 T, B0 X+ B
References......Page 66. F* H& C0 I. D: T5 F) C; R
Structural Overview of IFs......Page 7##Data Analysis......Page 78
# a% k; R, x4 p$ @% UCreation of Scenarios......Page 79
8 [' g% N4 x3 E: {$ x* ~Users and Uses of IFs......Page 803 e% G5 e4 v& E2 M* L. B1 Z
Looking Ahead......Page 82! A" R( { r& h/ Q6 d
References......Page 8##Population......Page 88
" T' j: ] ]8 U; H& Z ~9 ?Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 89& D" C; x# e( G5 r) o* D7 {) ]. O
Demographic Transitions......Page 91
0 Y/ h" r4 Z- p4 \, Q( R/ lModeling Population, Especially Fertility......Page 9##Population in IFs......Page 96
! m5 j) n# s$ `$ WFertility Rate......Page 97
. g; X$ }' R7 ?# ]1 j4 K/ G; [+ B9 CMortality and Migration......Page 1000 P6 a k# a$ W! _: w5 \
Limitations......Page 101* }1 k, U( v9 A& A2 _
Comparative Scenarios......Page 1021 ?* }! A5 F, k7 D3 ~0 G2 p
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 104. a1 _. l- A* _( p3 i5 H1 z/ F
Health Transitions......Page 105
" K7 y8 k- r% C1 z3 J: rModeling Health, Especially Mortality......Page 1067 Q2 \' `5 T3 Z+ s# ^
Health in IFs......Page 108- t" g$ ?! b0 E" ~& e
The Distal Foundation......Page 109: b( ~! ^! d9 }9 m
The Risk Assessment Overlay......Page 112
# A$ x- v+ y Z% r0 kCombining the Distal and Proximate Risk Drivers......Page 114* `/ C, M. [* B3 V3 ^ Y) ?
Other Important Health Variables......Page 115
! y Z* w& ]8 S W- }Comparative Scenarios......Page 1168 ?5 T. B3 f/ e" a5 |) m
Education......Page 117
+ p/ s; {( E# c' X% H) WConcepts, Structures, and Data......Page 118
! s6 t+ Z1 C4 b6 O( D; H kEducation Transitions......Page 120! }- `6 `; N% P
Modeling Education Progression......Page 122
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发表于 2020-7-3 08:19:39