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标题（title）：International Futures: Building and Using Global Models
0 r8 I8 w( d- A6 T国际期货：建立和使用全球模型, C# x" j$ s* M$ D' ~9 Q0 d/ T
作者（author）：Barry Hughes
1 S" D( u K3 v1 n! @- S5 W9 J出版社（publisher）：Academic Press& e$ _* X$ }- x. y) S
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International Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system.
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% l! Y; w4 c/ MFinally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years.) b: ]9 p8 t1 p1 ^
Table of contents : . {* Q: t' }+ V6 W8 w- B4 }
Cover......Page 1) @ z, `+ F0 \; [
INTERNATIONAL( a: B$ K y' M0 K9 n6 S8 W
FUTURES
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* J& U6 X( l" eBuilding and Using Global Models......Page ##Copyright......Page 4
$ W, Y0 A% C. U, f, Q. Y4 ~0 }Prologue......Page 5
2 H: ^ T$ j( v: }6 `Glossary I: Model Acronyms and Abbreviations......Page 7
& U' k. n0 S! y5 R& | M3 U6 QGlossary II: Modeling-Related Concepts, Tools, and Databases......Page 94 }! F& _5 T+ h( H; h
Glossary III: Organizations, Projects, and Teams......Page 11
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( C% r' ]7 E9 E+ R3 IIntroduction......Page 1##What Path Are We On?......Page 14
( i; A- H2 q) d! XWhat Leverage Do We Have?......Page 15
6 h2 A" ~" W6 ^How Do We Address Uncertainty?......Page 16
% [' z+ x7 N( F+ ^0 DThe Plan of the Volume......Page 17
6 C1 a; D! b- j: l( dReferences......Page 18
5 G8 Z, }; x9 I1 ?$ aIdentifying Concepts......Page 19% O( p- y4 M) e9 w, _/ `7 w
Recognizing Systems......Page 20+ t6 V# _2 F* V
Assembling Data......Page 2##Understanding Past and Ongoing Global Transitions......Page 269 F' w( {: b$ v2 X* ]. W. f# o
Making Fundamental Choices Concerning Model Type......Page 284 U1 d8 E) q) s0 U/ k
Building Algorithms......Page ##Making Choices at the Equation Level......Page ##Using Statistical Fit as a Guide, Not a Straitjacket......Page ##Considering Both Distal and Proximate Drivers......Page ##Looking for and Understanding Leverage Points......Page ##Using the Model and Exploring Uncertainty......Page ##Exploring Transformative Uncertainty......Page ##Verification, Validation, and Accreditation......Page ##Addressing Errors of Omission and Commission......Page 426 k% M! W3 V& X) R O2 U* R7 Q
References......Page 4##Foundational Work......Page 45
0 r8 ^6 x; L4 z+ x# l8 zThe First Wave......Page 462 Q$ Y% h4 c# z* [" J+ F9 e g
New Capabilities......Page 47" x# _& f3 J$ ]
Integrated Assessment Models......Page 49
( O8 W/ ^1 a, g+ |0 y, K3 zComparative Use of IAMs......Page 50
& R! S. n! `; B( Z3 }Comparative Assessments of IAM Structures......Page 51" u9 T- \' Q; I% h
Status of and Challenges for Global Model Building and Use......Page 59/ u# x4 ^3 u+ R1 X1 Z8 Z
Coverage and Connections......Page 603 Y7 j8 S/ d5 S- P0 Q8 u
Transparency and Openness......Page 61 C! I; O( s3 S3 B
Challenges in Model Use: Dealing With Uncertainty......Page 62
0 q6 |: S# D5 Y. j: n6 ^Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)......Page 6##Other Integrative Analytical Initiatives......Page 65
3 a0 F0 p2 F- L9 zReferences......Page 66( W- U" x2 K7 F& m a! Z
Structural Overview of IFs......Page 7##Data Analysis......Page 784 }: _5 N. u3 k5 g- B6 y, Y4 [$ m
Creation of Scenarios......Page 79
9 K$ N$ D' f6 G% C; H* r3 |Users and Uses of IFs......Page 804 j- L# X" R0 U* V
Looking Ahead......Page 82
/ g {% [& ?& \7 uReferences......Page 8##Population......Page 88' W5 q* @5 }; |! M* y
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 89
7 N3 \4 P* k' i/ XDemographic Transitions......Page 91
: C' @! b9 \& y5 ~0 ZModeling Population, Especially Fertility......Page 9##Population in IFs......Page 96
. ?( ?0 u& T& W1 s6 RFertility Rate......Page 97
9 b9 f' ~0 P9 v& H$ t. C- {Mortality and Migration......Page 100; N; \6 }- g v& F
Limitations......Page 101% X9 V, U1 F" h* ~! C
Comparative Scenarios......Page 102( h! D" f+ }1 W0 [+ N2 \9 S
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 104
4 [, N0 b7 \. `$ ` z* U, ZHealth Transitions......Page 105
v# a$ {9 C6 p1 C3 {Modeling Health, Especially Mortality......Page 1065 t! ~1 T4 \0 l/ o$ B) X5 j
Health in IFs......Page 108
- l! x: B( K+ g' L- s9 R& ], RThe Distal Foundation......Page 109% J) k2 ^2 }. f4 g' {4 {: h
The Risk Assessment Overlay......Page 112
$ M; P* v1 M6 l5 w# iCombining the Distal and Proximate Risk Drivers......Page 114
m( u/ y. g2 U0 Y# r; F/ NOther Important Health Variables......Page 115" N+ f7 [ h" y$ ?
Comparative Scenarios......Page 116
5 i+ T' z" m6 _0 _: j8 FEducation......Page 117
4 [- r1 Q2 J3 M& i" aConcepts, Structures, and Data......Page 118! W; ~' T, M! d6 t) w! m7 _
Education Transitions......Page 120
/ |9 `9 Q) [" Z2 z9 p+ p, U4 bModeling Education Progression......Page 122* ]% N `2 p# \! \
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发表于 2020-7-3 08:19:39