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标题（title）：International Futures: Building and Using Global Models
/ p* X5 Y* r( _3 l国际期货：建立和使用全球模型
; e( e8 [ s9 |# Z作者（author）：Barry Hughes0 [# y; y" e) F' M; T
出版社（publisher）：Academic Press" u2 W9 P; G7 m' y% F- `
大小（size）：13 MB (1#897#42 bytes)
) Q- o0 |8 P# n9 r格式（extension）：pdf
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International Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system.; h/ t+ R8 r9 n# G2 D$ H% s: O
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Finally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years.
$ z; [6 {. ^% z/ STable of contents : - l E+ X, J- l/ [) |6 B/ y8 D
Cover......Page 1
2 N0 K1 N3 V5 B. o. v0 MINTERNATIONAL6 R; P9 Q; a# `/ j
FUTURES
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Building and Using Global Models......Page ##Copyright......Page 4
* |4 \( b9 J9 T1 Z/ EPrologue......Page 54 n1 n3 D8 c8 B8 u; L: h \3 l4 u, e
Glossary I: Model Acronyms and Abbreviations......Page 7& T! x' [4 r5 ~, c( ?: x
Glossary II: Modeling-Related Concepts, Tools, and Databases......Page 9
r' ]9 B2 u. H$ A- PGlossary III: Organizations, Projects, and Teams......Page 11
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Introduction......Page 1##What Path Are We On?......Page 14
7 G b. p' {# p9 p- c* BWhat Leverage Do We Have?......Page 15
2 k/ _) K# G! q: V7 [) WHow Do We Address Uncertainty?......Page 163 g! W8 E8 n$ Z w6 w
The Plan of the Volume......Page 177 k% i+ t% W8 \7 X/ Y) b. B
References......Page 18+ T5 ^, i3 t9 R6 R1 h8 c$ }) V
Identifying Concepts......Page 19
! I6 ?# G- s" j- m2 g# JRecognizing Systems......Page 20. v+ e6 ? |3 t; ^2 M
Assembling Data......Page 2##Understanding Past and Ongoing Global Transitions......Page 26 } t# ~, O# d8 Y
Making Fundamental Choices Concerning Model Type......Page 28 S# \% G7 U, f0 {% A! } Y, ?+ \7 P+ @( r
Building Algorithms......Page ##Making Choices at the Equation Level......Page ##Using Statistical Fit as a Guide, Not a Straitjacket......Page ##Considering Both Distal and Proximate Drivers......Page ##Looking for and Understanding Leverage Points......Page ##Using the Model and Exploring Uncertainty......Page ##Exploring Transformative Uncertainty......Page ##Verification, Validation, and Accreditation......Page ##Addressing Errors of Omission and Commission......Page 42
+ J5 E( B/ X: g r" ]References......Page 4##Foundational Work......Page 45
6 j% {: L. x3 ?# u& O1 z7 P) r) m3 ~* xThe First Wave......Page 462 i, V; G7 [; {+ r& Z' T
New Capabilities......Page 472 ?9 E5 j4 |9 g, \# h1 F$ F
Integrated Assessment Models......Page 49
& g4 R% l% G% o- ?. e9 jComparative Use of IAMs......Page 50- _2 B" ]; W% J# ~
Comparative Assessments of IAM Structures......Page 51
; Q5 j+ X4 e! U; B9 h9 @Status of and Challenges for Global Model Building and Use......Page 59
& R9 | |3 S" w( D' G; E2 M4 oCoverage and Connections......Page 60
3 X+ e t9 ?# z2 ^Transparency and Openness......Page 618 l: w9 E, a: H8 |0 V
Challenges in Model Use: Dealing With Uncertainty......Page 62
! o. Q: Y2 k+ N1 x# ^% F* `Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)......Page 6##Other Integrative Analytical Initiatives......Page 65. P0 [) X2 s; i. x
References......Page 66& L. ^1 Y/ N" X$ d5 h
Structural Overview of IFs......Page 7##Data Analysis......Page 78# e0 c- ?# @- x0 N+ j$ S
Creation of Scenarios......Page 79
/ t1 A0 A l0 I3 O4 y! V; _Users and Uses of IFs......Page 807 m+ }$ _- e, a7 V0 {$ ?
Looking Ahead......Page 82
5 t$ W- t/ `* |9 g2 _) q! GReferences......Page 8##Population......Page 88
7 q3 c0 z5 `0 GConcepts, Structures, and Data......Page 89
3 g1 e& R1 p% w0 xDemographic Transitions......Page 91
$ ~0 j" n' z sModeling Population, Especially Fertility......Page 9##Population in IFs......Page 964 E/ `# s1 y. f
Fertility Rate......Page 97
) @# d. U$ w0 c( F0 t: dMortality and Migration......Page 100
$ r+ d' X# q) l5 z" g- ?; U! oLimitations......Page 101/ j$ R1 F6 Q+ p4 R7 b; E+ ^; h
Comparative Scenarios......Page 1021 z }7 L4 F; y
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 104
+ ~3 p. F1 w" ?. j9 c$ b) hHealth Transitions......Page 1056 |; ~+ \) a$ I* S' m; E# s5 i
Modeling Health, Especially Mortality......Page 106
) j0 z6 a$ ?, R. D: a: s; bHealth in IFs......Page 108
# T+ W' \2 ~; t) |. P( f6 nThe Distal Foundation......Page 109
# k4 V) S) }& V. j4 wThe Risk Assessment Overlay......Page 112
% ]% h4 c' `3 eCombining the Distal and Proximate Risk Drivers......Page 114% b' S7 x l2 [+ Q0 r! Z/ d0 D8 p; `! M
Other Important Health Variables......Page 115
% h& m+ ~# m8 YComparative Scenarios......Page 116, J3 ]1 a% q* E8 x& e! }* K1 D
Education......Page 117
# G( M- `5 |/ ^1 y% }Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 1188 [7 Q) l: x& h9 C
Education Transitions......Page 120
5 ~# K" Z" D! q5 N# }. j* P, |' NModeling Education Progression......Page 122
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发表于 2020-7-3 08:19:39