简单麦麦# P" Z) y6 D& R
下载链接： http://www.jiandanmaimai.cn/file/0/- O. C0 P" D4 x
标题（title）：International Futures: Building and Using Global Models
' B' u5 X7 Y$ @$ I5 v国际期货：建立和使用全球模型9 R" z! @+ r4 X& ~# {! W
作者（author）：Barry Hughes
% F$ N; J9 Z" s出版社（publisher）：Academic Press1 _* R3 _8 f+ S1 ~* \8 u ~
大小（size）：13 MB (1#897#42 bytes)" J3 e$ G$ T1 q8 a
格式（extension）：pdf3 } O) @' r3 i: R# t
注意：如果文件下载解压完成后为无法打开的格式，请修改后缀名为格式对应后缀5 L% E) O$ M& h3 j4 F- i; n- x
9 v0 Y% o6 d4 O+ p9 o6 B5 q4 D! Q+ \/ C' E
International Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system." f; z! N1 m1 k% @& [
6 h& q( C" V" ^- v1 M+ L
2 ]7 Q1 `0 N# M: {0 p+ Y; FFinally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years.4 G6 {5 s. ]5 D; ~) n
Table of contents :
+ X6 d+ ~' i+ s. j5 JCover......Page 1
1 Z- Y4 }9 O7 o1 V' H; \) F; ]* ^INTERNATIONAL
* C$ X3 c5 c9 Z3 K# ]! aFUTURES# `6 H# q2 Q1 L f. e
' y. q5 W3 E! x( V/ E0 B! P
G: L0 k) I& {Building and Using Global Models......Page ##Copyright......Page 4
- b/ \% V/ d7 t. S; UPrologue......Page 5
- v' n4 [( |2 F' ?Glossary I: Model Acronyms and Abbreviations......Page 7
0 k' u' ?# N3 R, J+ hGlossary II: Modeling-Related Concepts, Tools, and Databases......Page 9( i# S' ^! J* i, p" a. A n! v
Glossary III: Organizations, Projects, and Teams......Page 11
8 [$ S4 ?8 }! H# ]/ t9 J, `0 G1
9 E( V h. d2 G A/ R" ]+ FIntroduction......Page 1##What Path Are We On?......Page 14
/ U% L. J+ C4 W R- JWhat Leverage Do We Have?......Page 15
~; y) s6 a! u; RHow Do We Address Uncertainty?......Page 16
7 Y; Q" j0 ]$ t' KThe Plan of the Volume......Page 17
( T9 T) U! @+ Z" kReferences......Page 18
/ H& l: o: G8 sIdentifying Concepts......Page 19
: s& d* o( X( @/ N; A. Y9 M% l- xRecognizing Systems......Page 20
$ f+ }0 V; I7 gAssembling Data......Page 2##Understanding Past and Ongoing Global Transitions......Page 26& }2 C |9 B" z' m
Making Fundamental Choices Concerning Model Type......Page 28: m2 K) Z5 I5 j$ c- e. e
Building Algorithms......Page ##Making Choices at the Equation Level......Page ##Using Statistical Fit as a Guide, Not a Straitjacket......Page ##Considering Both Distal and Proximate Drivers......Page ##Looking for and Understanding Leverage Points......Page ##Using the Model and Exploring Uncertainty......Page ##Exploring Transformative Uncertainty......Page ##Verification, Validation, and Accreditation......Page ##Addressing Errors of Omission and Commission......Page 42* F! Q, E0 N0 a! U$ n
References......Page 4##Foundational Work......Page 45$ o' L) H- P# ^& Q
The First Wave......Page 46! ^( Q" I2 ?: u0 v" v+ F
New Capabilities......Page 47
5 Q3 ~! |9 G* _* ZIntegrated Assessment Models......Page 497 S ~5 Y6 k# ]# _
Comparative Use of IAMs......Page 50- ~: o# _7 u- o
Comparative Assessments of IAM Structures......Page 51* Y7 w4 A/ ?) }! R
Status of and Challenges for Global Model Building and Use......Page 59
9 k/ i7 Z, K5 k+ u6 }% J# h6 E4 oCoverage and Connections......Page 609 l! k. g: B: Z1 L
Transparency and Openness......Page 61% k) S# B+ P5 t/ F& N; J
Challenges in Model Use: Dealing With Uncertainty......Page 62) y- \; {2 i% ^* X! x
Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)......Page 6##Other Integrative Analytical Initiatives......Page 65
" q! m1 `& n/ v/ _1 r6 OReferences......Page 66
! R4 ?$ b( D# F \0 w; kStructural Overview of IFs......Page 7##Data Analysis......Page 784 r, M+ b/ h" d& b' v" @
Creation of Scenarios......Page 790 G% x) y1 v/ z
Users and Uses of IFs......Page 80: g; r) h& [0 K) u. p+ l
Looking Ahead......Page 826 }' S: T$ [9 R9 i) }+ b
References......Page 8##Population......Page 88
3 q) P4 P5 m% }8 S$ GConcepts, Structures, and Data......Page 89; \6 r" C8 ^2 P" G8 q* S0 S
Demographic Transitions......Page 91
( g! h7 Q7 O& `! |& h6 ]$ ~Modeling Population, Especially Fertility......Page 9##Population in IFs......Page 96
# ~% Q5 M" d; AFertility Rate......Page 972 J1 K, D1 M* q/ T& u
Mortality and Migration......Page 1002 n8 B9 t1 M: b1 p. B
Limitations......Page 101
. Y% \- ~; a( K4 m/ {/ Y* pComparative Scenarios......Page 1028 j' @# S y' e! c! E7 U" d
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 104& Z! u1 ^. H" P% ?( p/ z
Health Transitions......Page 105
J4 ]: `0 [% b' d% f- u1 E1 a& x/ eModeling Health, Especially Mortality......Page 106! J* {5 @+ U6 y0 k1 ?' \& f
Health in IFs......Page 108
J7 o( g' O CThe Distal Foundation......Page 109! H/ G3 d1 c6 A( o$ v
The Risk Assessment Overlay......Page 112
" K% q7 h- Q6 R7 LCombining the Distal and Proximate Risk Drivers......Page 1148 [. x6 v& B; I/ J6 }: s- I# k8 s
Other Important Health Variables......Page 1157 v8 @: `% o H) E6 h% J( s
Comparative Scenarios......Page 1168 ?5 y: X& {; D1 |- k! Q- `
Education......Page 117
0 d2 d# n5 g, @3 ^6 GConcepts, Structures, and Data......Page 118
. g- T4 h' D7 j, CEducation Transitions......Page 1203 M0 L% A! U( a! k8 R- F& r
Modeling Education Progression......Page 122
( I2 J' ^1 A3 z, K) ?0 pE |
|手机版|Archiver|
( 桂ICP备12001440号-3 )|网站地图
发表于 2020-7-3 08:19:39