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标题（title）：International Futures: Building and Using Global Models! o" h0 F) @: \$ Z1 \% i
国际期货：建立和使用全球模型1 o* N/ l5 v3 a* a
作者（author）：Barry Hughes" c1 z: A! i+ n4 |- ?8 j
出版社（publisher）：Academic Press! Y: v) Y% `, V2 U0 c2 b6 Z7 _
大小（size）：13 MB (1#897#42 bytes)
- p9 Y. |& I' H+ `3 A/ E格式（extension）：pdf
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International Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system.
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* h5 H5 x8 {7 IFinally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years.! c/ v: P7 K) x2 O* z% v H. K
Table of contents : 3 Z7 }0 ~: Y% E8 l$ b
Cover......Page 1
. N) M5 `7 O6 [INTERNATIONAL- H7 U$ D$ h# ^4 h: f- W
FUTURES, h" u5 b3 N5 Q) H: O
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Building and Using Global Models......Page ##Copyright......Page 4; y3 n6 `# \& L7 S
Prologue......Page 57 p: L0 W3 V' J. }% v. H
Glossary I: Model Acronyms and Abbreviations......Page 70 T4 P: S# H$ D5 \' Z6 Z
Glossary II: Modeling-Related Concepts, Tools, and Databases......Page 9
2 y6 C6 c, `6 P7 J, E8 t& kGlossary III: Organizations, Projects, and Teams......Page 11
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Introduction......Page 1##What Path Are We On?......Page 14
* i- V; D$ _* U2 \$ NWhat Leverage Do We Have?......Page 15$ `0 b9 E. y: l* f4 A6 u& P
How Do We Address Uncertainty?......Page 16
3 q- i1 n0 ]& H3 [9 N2 J% OThe Plan of the Volume......Page 173 m) n0 Q2 p+ D8 V+ Q
References......Page 18% N/ ?5 \. h5 ~
Identifying Concepts......Page 19
9 R( A- J# g" w+ |/ E% C6 a8 x) JRecognizing Systems......Page 20 R' W0 W- F% A) r5 Z4 ~2 F) P
Assembling Data......Page 2##Understanding Past and Ongoing Global Transitions......Page 26. L. ] g/ o: j4 C( J3 ^% X1 W
Making Fundamental Choices Concerning Model Type......Page 28- n7 `) M4 E/ @" t
Building Algorithms......Page ##Making Choices at the Equation Level......Page ##Using Statistical Fit as a Guide, Not a Straitjacket......Page ##Considering Both Distal and Proximate Drivers......Page ##Looking for and Understanding Leverage Points......Page ##Using the Model and Exploring Uncertainty......Page ##Exploring Transformative Uncertainty......Page ##Verification, Validation, and Accreditation......Page ##Addressing Errors of Omission and Commission......Page 422 d) N3 Y! s2 l
References......Page 4##Foundational Work......Page 45
?/ l& q0 I; k- w1 ~The First Wave......Page 46% z9 U; V# A9 k9 \
New Capabilities......Page 47
& { P1 w" A# e& _) W0 x7 PIntegrated Assessment Models......Page 49
T- W. r$ o( r D4 b2 x1 zComparative Use of IAMs......Page 50$ Z ?+ M. m# L
Comparative Assessments of IAM Structures......Page 51
& ^& V' ]; i5 h* R# v( |( `Status of and Challenges for Global Model Building and Use......Page 59
T2 I+ u/ L( }6 PCoverage and Connections......Page 60/ t/ }2 F7 w" d0 [
Transparency and Openness......Page 61
8 z% S3 n0 c2 k" i: }3 AChallenges in Model Use: Dealing With Uncertainty......Page 62
$ D% y- k2 Z5 ?7 DShared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)......Page 6##Other Integrative Analytical Initiatives......Page 65
0 ^7 _+ P9 o6 y. @' Z6 q cReferences......Page 661 V1 C* a! m9 u' r
Structural Overview of IFs......Page 7##Data Analysis......Page 786 s8 E2 O7 i: y
Creation of Scenarios......Page 79: q: d0 S# U7 p8 a
Users and Uses of IFs......Page 80
1 l, j9 l; @% {3 e4 _% OLooking Ahead......Page 82
2 H/ y: c7 k- W7 O2 G. aReferences......Page 8##Population......Page 881 Y. ^9 Z$ G- \4 Q3 U% K$ c
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 891 Q3 R* n+ L8 b
Demographic Transitions......Page 91
5 j' q5 [* u K% e2 rModeling Population, Especially Fertility......Page 9##Population in IFs......Page 96
; F% Y1 g% Q$ @7 J3 ZFertility Rate......Page 97
6 g. R$ v6 G# B. n3 AMortality and Migration......Page 100
. R/ K* @& l ~$ ~( \Limitations......Page 101
) Y! X; U2 O1 ?) t' TComparative Scenarios......Page 102
1 n0 a2 g% Z' v; U- u, }' dConcepts, Structures, and Data......Page 1041 i$ Q; O- t4 o
Health Transitions......Page 105
( j! u9 T/ k) L$ S( o5 n4 WModeling Health, Especially Mortality......Page 1069 m3 |0 m- J0 g8 t2 u
Health in IFs......Page 108
2 |4 Z+ m- V9 O/ R" l, `. v5 H4 dThe Distal Foundation......Page 109
# x, T; O1 s5 y nThe Risk Assessment Overlay......Page 112, d7 [0 v+ X7 P* j6 z3 N7 Q
Combining the Distal and Proximate Risk Drivers......Page 114: Q' o$ ]9 ], _0 J" K+ Z4 J
Other Important Health Variables......Page 115
$ y5 u5 l: j" ]Comparative Scenarios......Page 116
) @' x/ g8 ^) P/ |8 H/ tEducation......Page 117
, N: t$ E) W( f7 l5 `$ RConcepts, Structures, and Data......Page 118
, w/ k: |' S- j. GEducation Transitions......Page 120
' M! q. g: G) V: }Modeling Education Progression......Page 1227 n. {; C/ n# x( A' U* v
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发表于 2020-7-3 08:19:39