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" x3 o$ x3 h, H! X* a标题（title）：International Futures: Building and Using Global Models
6 V& o2 o u# q9 m国际期货：建立和使用全球模型
7 K B! D! h9 n- ?8 u作者（author）：Barry Hughes
' E/ K! {' \9 `; ?" d6 j出版社（publisher）：Academic Press
$ H. K2 V, ]- E大小（size）：13 MB (1#897#42 bytes)
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International Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system.
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; ]( s% D) F# {) b9 Y% _% {0 SFinally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years.' L7 y7 d. V1 I& k
Table of contents : : x6 X% A* A7 K1 G9 Z. @. L
Cover......Page 1+ ~2 c# j7 c+ M* ]
INTERNATIONAL1 M0 q& n4 l& G) c' `- R
FUTURES. Y! {3 ^ ~0 Z" J4 s! {# {
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) d, Z4 C9 ?! S& B0 lBuilding and Using Global Models......Page ##Copyright......Page 4" b9 Z. ^ P: u8 H% v: V
Prologue......Page 5
+ s8 u: N6 z! H% M2 WGlossary I: Model Acronyms and Abbreviations......Page 7
8 r. c/ \: e ~: KGlossary II: Modeling-Related Concepts, Tools, and Databases......Page 9% S, ? ?) J8 Z! {! N; Z+ {7 e
Glossary III: Organizations, Projects, and Teams......Page 110 R, {$ J6 ?+ d
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! f. D8 i1 F. n3 s, z+ OIntroduction......Page 1##What Path Are We On?......Page 147 m# {4 t. B$ x5 @7 M9 W
What Leverage Do We Have?......Page 15
# X- c9 e8 e7 sHow Do We Address Uncertainty?......Page 16
: M! B9 n4 x2 RThe Plan of the Volume......Page 17
1 I, }( G$ ~. g* c9 CReferences......Page 18$ u- B( J6 i. j# U# n9 P: X2 }
Identifying Concepts......Page 19. L! _) E. F- a$ }$ s2 }- B
Recognizing Systems......Page 20& P: j9 `- U6 B8 A
Assembling Data......Page 2##Understanding Past and Ongoing Global Transitions......Page 262 I0 N' ?1 M, I4 q' F
Making Fundamental Choices Concerning Model Type......Page 283 P' ]7 O" Z% }3 w
Building Algorithms......Page ##Making Choices at the Equation Level......Page ##Using Statistical Fit as a Guide, Not a Straitjacket......Page ##Considering Both Distal and Proximate Drivers......Page ##Looking for and Understanding Leverage Points......Page ##Using the Model and Exploring Uncertainty......Page ##Exploring Transformative Uncertainty......Page ##Verification, Validation, and Accreditation......Page ##Addressing Errors of Omission and Commission......Page 42
; y6 Z5 H9 ^9 o" {. F1 \References......Page 4##Foundational Work......Page 45
& L5 a/ \) @' n2 T6 @" eThe First Wave......Page 46
: c: D, x$ r' }5 L; O I9 zNew Capabilities......Page 47
: k: `* c; E' \7 m# S# i& iIntegrated Assessment Models......Page 49
! x f2 J4 K. m( YComparative Use of IAMs......Page 50
' a# L2 M; z7 OComparative Assessments of IAM Structures......Page 51
1 f. \* J2 w" i/ h0 s9 JStatus of and Challenges for Global Model Building and Use......Page 59
; I0 W+ t: W, [& KCoverage and Connections......Page 60& C( r& `4 I, K
Transparency and Openness......Page 613 t Z9 ` K! o1 r6 C g$ g: `
Challenges in Model Use: Dealing With Uncertainty......Page 62
a8 i" _; J5 q. R* R3 gShared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)......Page 6##Other Integrative Analytical Initiatives......Page 65 c/ ?; Z* H# ]- n
References......Page 66/ f/ e: A9 g5 ~ U0 U0 a6 Y
Structural Overview of IFs......Page 7##Data Analysis......Page 78
3 J4 ]0 l* D6 Y3 h) T) ]Creation of Scenarios......Page 79
7 l2 a/ C1 H+ KUsers and Uses of IFs......Page 80
- J1 t" `* I3 V* U c/ \Looking Ahead......Page 82
. P0 P$ T. s. b% R0 f- J: P: \References......Page 8##Population......Page 88
7 z, r8 n/ S4 E, p3 Y/ K3 `5 e* RConcepts, Structures, and Data......Page 89
Y( w4 K& T! ?0 u. W/ S& JDemographic Transitions......Page 91
) E) F0 c$ P+ C; w$ PModeling Population, Especially Fertility......Page 9##Population in IFs......Page 964 j5 S* R2 C5 @4 O8 K
Fertility Rate......Page 97
: x6 S; ?7 U, R( W- R5 s3 `. KMortality and Migration......Page 100
6 k6 ]" V- y% W9 J$ D8 mLimitations......Page 101
3 @9 L5 l: |/ p4 eComparative Scenarios......Page 102
; [) d8 ~+ g% c* m/ h+ AConcepts, Structures, and Data......Page 104
$ n9 y3 P% u" S. L: n* r4 ?Health Transitions......Page 105
+ [! @1 V: S3 \( B6 y& nModeling Health, Especially Mortality......Page 106
2 } u q* ?! {& j9 T. e# n# iHealth in IFs......Page 108
: q" w& S Q5 {; y+ P" V' FThe Distal Foundation......Page 1095 V) O+ n5 o, a3 q# S
The Risk Assessment Overlay......Page 112
# Y5 [" o3 y$ L8 y f" d4 s1 D+ ECombining the Distal and Proximate Risk Drivers......Page 114/ X. _: ^8 l$ R: A/ F$ L. Q: h
Other Important Health Variables......Page 1154 C7 o3 \6 g* I) ^
Comparative Scenarios......Page 1163 a6 O0 y7 s: N- L! x. A* T
Education......Page 117, n3 g# N' U1 K7 T
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 118$ C4 Q2 V( n- H8 y$ ~7 c6 F
Education Transitions......Page 120
7 C4 n3 a9 v+ t- [Modeling Education Progression......Page 1229 Z) V( h5 p& \( O7 Z1 r( _" F
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发表于 2020-7-3 08:19:39