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0 \4 x) }# E& y1 d0 l/ t标题（title）：International Futures: Building and Using Global Models( W/ j: K1 |7 r% L1 ~( X
国际期货：建立和使用全球模型7 P. ]* Y: q8 q3 ^
作者（author）：Barry Hughes
( M" j* k( `6 N, k出版社（publisher）：Academic Press; Q2 }5 `8 o- e# f+ \
大小（size）：13 MB (1#897#42 bytes)
( K+ M. `3 z# w格式（extension）：pdf P8 N& x! |. p4 m Q7 u
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0 r* Q1 z) l8 p$ @International Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system.% U+ z J3 }8 C1 B6 \) w) I" j
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Finally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years.: D4 o. u! S3 r6 [/ C
Table of contents : 7 ?- E2 P5 J; R* e9 {
Cover......Page 15 f: m# u Y3 n ^7 H( j# g
INTERNATIONAL+ o$ v; u3 v5 r6 M( p
FUTURES; J' K$ [( Z, d! h# }1 M
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Building and Using Global Models......Page ##Copyright......Page 4! B5 n/ m% A2 [( W, r3 n
Prologue......Page 5- w$ o, C2 r, N' U1 l8 O
Glossary I: Model Acronyms and Abbreviations......Page 7
+ ]# n2 J* ~2 X; `9 v' MGlossary II: Modeling-Related Concepts, Tools, and Databases......Page 90 Z4 @1 Z: E) J- \* @( l" J
Glossary III: Organizations, Projects, and Teams......Page 11
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2 ^7 _$ y5 p7 N0 Q/ _- C2 a/ DIntroduction......Page 1##What Path Are We On?......Page 14: A, T- Y1 ^, c8 X
What Leverage Do We Have?......Page 154 n3 s0 O& B' q
How Do We Address Uncertainty?......Page 16
/ }# b0 n' A3 c9 q7 N9 q8 o3 Q$ HThe Plan of the Volume......Page 17
/ C" ?. p! Z' y/ |' q. c3 HReferences......Page 18! }, C* [2 R4 l( Q& I
Identifying Concepts......Page 19* `5 | z$ d8 d1 t
Recognizing Systems......Page 20; x6 E+ Z% `- c' N) e! D
Assembling Data......Page 2##Understanding Past and Ongoing Global Transitions......Page 26
3 r$ h* s% y1 f) ?: u4 D* U8 a- MMaking Fundamental Choices Concerning Model Type......Page 28& Y6 e8 V5 V5 `6 Z
Building Algorithms......Page ##Making Choices at the Equation Level......Page ##Using Statistical Fit as a Guide, Not a Straitjacket......Page ##Considering Both Distal and Proximate Drivers......Page ##Looking for and Understanding Leverage Points......Page ##Using the Model and Exploring Uncertainty......Page ##Exploring Transformative Uncertainty......Page ##Verification, Validation, and Accreditation......Page ##Addressing Errors of Omission and Commission......Page 42; @" g7 {- P! Y$ v8 D5 R: F
References......Page 4##Foundational Work......Page 45. J. B7 W- r4 O$ f3 {1 T4 T
The First Wave......Page 465 a6 C5 y/ d' G3 I
New Capabilities......Page 47 W. m+ H1 Y- T- }9 u
Integrated Assessment Models......Page 49
9 Q% y& J, K3 ]9 {- a; L) V7 rComparative Use of IAMs......Page 50
% y* A% o5 H% a# L6 R8 g0 |/ ]Comparative Assessments of IAM Structures......Page 512 z* @0 W+ L3 Y( I
Status of and Challenges for Global Model Building and Use......Page 59# e/ l4 N4 t0 m1 q
Coverage and Connections......Page 60
* G' B) X+ ?# ~ }Transparency and Openness......Page 61
* h* ]/ ?4 Q0 Y5 ~Challenges in Model Use: Dealing With Uncertainty......Page 62) g/ {$ V/ {2 W/ E* p
Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)......Page 6##Other Integrative Analytical Initiatives......Page 65
% n$ V5 ~6 Q/ `# D7 ?7 Z( ]$ sReferences......Page 66
: R z8 [5 k, x e. j) @: `' Y1 U- z3 pStructural Overview of IFs......Page 7##Data Analysis......Page 78
+ T7 a2 z9 v8 Z8 m! s9 ]5 [Creation of Scenarios......Page 79( J; a# s* j5 P5 d
Users and Uses of IFs......Page 80
* U* {( y6 q" f aLooking Ahead......Page 82
/ k9 `# k. A2 v- ~6 s( L) FReferences......Page 8##Population......Page 88
% i6 u& U3 w RConcepts, Structures, and Data......Page 89& k1 i: g' v6 v+ [$ `
Demographic Transitions......Page 91
u$ G+ {! q0 L j" mModeling Population, Especially Fertility......Page 9##Population in IFs......Page 96$ _* d) y+ l% ^
Fertility Rate......Page 97& ?6 V$ E2 g2 E, ]* Q& ?6 ?
Mortality and Migration......Page 100
( C: q3 j+ P8 A2 DLimitations......Page 101
9 `* B$ `" @* iComparative Scenarios......Page 1023 j0 g6 E* t9 ?5 N; g1 L
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 104
9 k& V4 H B9 Q3 o2 @Health Transitions......Page 105
% T/ P4 {2 c# p0 U& c/ n& q/ ?& CModeling Health, Especially Mortality......Page 106+ o! R7 A9 S8 r' u, I
Health in IFs......Page 108
: P5 R3 F7 U( y) F6 rThe Distal Foundation......Page 1098 _* t, g( Q4 l5 `# j( {& n
The Risk Assessment Overlay......Page 112( g: j2 i |) E/ Y, W$ o
Combining the Distal and Proximate Risk Drivers......Page 1147 {8 u+ R6 a+ U" O! g- {
Other Important Health Variables......Page 115+ u8 ~- A8 t+ J) d3 Z$ i3 g5 a8 s
Comparative Scenarios......Page 116
; P0 \; @4 e. b, b2 Y$ X" q' q+ QEducation......Page 117
* `' ^1 n6 N5 @6 s/ l( c( ]( O1 bConcepts, Structures, and Data......Page 118
n7 W$ W! i" }$ b: T! hEducation Transitions......Page 120
m& f1 J. G1 x0 }5 c1 h+ Q! eModeling Education Progression......Page 1220 c/ d5 S& g' A r+ R
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发表于 2020-7-3 08:19:39