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标题（title）：International Futures: Building and Using Global Models
( x6 D( c) j: L# U x6 K/ G. q; p' t国际期货：建立和使用全球模型, {" g# q! V0 d. o7 I# r5 k
作者（author）：Barry Hughes
/ |/ _( ^( c: B- P6 ~7 r- `出版社（publisher）：Academic Press1 z+ L" ~* E# q- m9 H+ }
大小（size）：13 MB (1#897#42 bytes)
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3 o/ h7 ^8 y5 ]' B1 k' SInternational Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system.
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, d# v) X) X. N7 AFinally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years.) E5 S# H7 G# o* ^2 i# X5 ~" U6 E
Table of contents : 9 o. {' H4 k( u' I: B; y+ |! k, | y
Cover......Page 1
: Z( C0 v" ^; ~7 C1 \INTERNATIONAL0 V* u1 w- C) O0 b
FUTURES
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Building and Using Global Models......Page ##Copyright......Page 48 X0 S; g# J) z/ o9 i) }2 v0 \
Prologue......Page 5, A4 Z# i! q; }+ ^; m: s
Glossary I: Model Acronyms and Abbreviations......Page 7
+ \% l) ]' l) @ W* c, JGlossary II: Modeling-Related Concepts, Tools, and Databases......Page 9" K& u& ?, V! Z
Glossary III: Organizations, Projects, and Teams......Page 11- t3 H+ U9 K( g& g6 B, A
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Introduction......Page 1##What Path Are We On?......Page 14 Q! o) N# I7 ?7 ~
What Leverage Do We Have?......Page 15
& N( d$ \, z# _5 qHow Do We Address Uncertainty?......Page 16
4 a4 J, z/ v4 v7 kThe Plan of the Volume......Page 17
8 N1 O0 L% j m& Z: r# a, t5 y* KReferences......Page 18
# z& H% e5 s" u) V; s3 L- K) QIdentifying Concepts......Page 19- o" Q+ ^( F4 t+ b" i( y7 Z
Recognizing Systems......Page 20
9 C' S/ V Z8 D' j+ w2 M4 zAssembling Data......Page 2##Understanding Past and Ongoing Global Transitions......Page 261 u, i5 x( Z" X+ u6 @! L. X4 J) M: z
Making Fundamental Choices Concerning Model Type......Page 28
O5 b; _/ D1 f4 c# b ?Building Algorithms......Page ##Making Choices at the Equation Level......Page ##Using Statistical Fit as a Guide, Not a Straitjacket......Page ##Considering Both Distal and Proximate Drivers......Page ##Looking for and Understanding Leverage Points......Page ##Using the Model and Exploring Uncertainty......Page ##Exploring Transformative Uncertainty......Page ##Verification, Validation, and Accreditation......Page ##Addressing Errors of Omission and Commission......Page 42) R+ o5 m) X5 b% E. I
References......Page 4##Foundational Work......Page 45
8 K: ]. ~0 c: ^, j' M5 DThe First Wave......Page 46
9 L$ [5 O! ^/ Q. @5 M' j5 T3 DNew Capabilities......Page 47% _- U+ _% `: V; ^2 b9 } K& @
Integrated Assessment Models......Page 496 J j/ Z7 _6 N
Comparative Use of IAMs......Page 50
9 J. ` B& H9 k* `* T# ~Comparative Assessments of IAM Structures......Page 51
4 Q: r" Y4 ~7 m' D# L0 P9 M; bStatus of and Challenges for Global Model Building and Use......Page 59
- Z! x W5 |" UCoverage and Connections......Page 60
# K3 X; ^ e \7 MTransparency and Openness......Page 61
% z" L$ | E7 t& jChallenges in Model Use: Dealing With Uncertainty......Page 62; U$ x, ~* s; X f( y
Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)......Page 6##Other Integrative Analytical Initiatives......Page 65+ \) W& c$ T9 \4 X6 P
References......Page 66
' l. y3 w# ^3 h& H& gStructural Overview of IFs......Page 7##Data Analysis......Page 78
& t7 ~9 e* d" S# lCreation of Scenarios......Page 79% Y/ E6 j5 @) z9 j- r
Users and Uses of IFs......Page 80: d d1 }/ o. w; A" k: A7 H
Looking Ahead......Page 82
8 z* }8 l) u1 J! g- FReferences......Page 8##Population......Page 88
3 [6 U) u- i3 F7 [Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 89
H! H9 Z+ t a/ `6 Z6 P: FDemographic Transitions......Page 91
& B( ?( x1 y/ V: }" }3 f6 h* ?Modeling Population, Especially Fertility......Page 9##Population in IFs......Page 96
( G* I& R( M' w! N( ^# b& GFertility Rate......Page 97
! {% T3 H t6 LMortality and Migration......Page 1007 x/ n w1 }6 b. e0 o( L! R7 n" F
Limitations......Page 101
( P, z7 H* i& m' QComparative Scenarios......Page 102
& d; I/ G9 y5 e9 MConcepts, Structures, and Data......Page 1041 S( m/ g1 O, `. J9 J2 g) L
Health Transitions......Page 105
' d0 C; }! Z. H8 {( YModeling Health, Especially Mortality......Page 106
6 @( ^! o, {! m. j1 HHealth in IFs......Page 108
. `* U( O# ~& r1 I4 ]. I2 f8 oThe Distal Foundation......Page 109- e8 _0 c; B' j" J
The Risk Assessment Overlay......Page 112* J! ], A0 F$ ]6 Z) ?3 o* X
Combining the Distal and Proximate Risk Drivers......Page 114# W0 l- y0 t+ J/ D
Other Important Health Variables......Page 115* h* Z$ w3 Q+ ^, D5 [" Y
Comparative Scenarios......Page 116
9 d2 C: S: f7 T$ L4 eEducation......Page 117
( U& B2 B# l3 c5 UConcepts, Structures, and Data......Page 1185 J. r' ~6 B7 O% L1 n# H/ f
Education Transitions......Page 120
3 g2 V8 h$ q9 A% hModeling Education Progression......Page 122
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发表于 2020-7-3 08:19:39