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标题（title）：International Futures: Building and Using Global Models
" _2 J+ _3 L5 X国际期货：建立和使用全球模型) Y5 |) W' C+ Y _2 C# M% L
作者（author）：Barry Hughes
4 x( e! S6 z. }出版社（publisher）：Academic Press6 c$ p1 Q( w7 ]
大小（size）：13 MB (1#897#42 bytes)
g- p3 E% `2 L& A/ \ n格式（extension）：pdf
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International Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system./ x+ y+ b! R. m
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4 G4 d+ Y: @! D! uFinally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years.
$ ^- x W8 }5 n+ P5 tTable of contents : ) c4 n1 {9 a9 K4 Z0 E8 D
Cover......Page 15 H8 k+ t" J* j0 q
INTERNATIONAL
# r+ c7 }4 h6 dFUTURES: e& D6 ^7 ?8 N! d/ P
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Building and Using Global Models......Page ##Copyright......Page 44 p8 K4 g5 X7 \0 e
Prologue......Page 5
6 y% a: F0 e9 s" w% i7 qGlossary I: Model Acronyms and Abbreviations......Page 7 j1 J$ g. w" Z2 a7 ?
Glossary II: Modeling-Related Concepts, Tools, and Databases......Page 9
& I1 Z( A. g0 ~Glossary III: Organizations, Projects, and Teams......Page 11
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Introduction......Page 1##What Path Are We On?......Page 14
2 |! c5 N2 L4 q) UWhat Leverage Do We Have?......Page 154 Y: e. A8 X9 p6 `: M0 p* P
How Do We Address Uncertainty?......Page 16
/ ]1 \% D# {% @) AThe Plan of the Volume......Page 17
/ k3 O9 u" G( H; m- n& _References......Page 18, D2 ?0 G: `" Y" A
Identifying Concepts......Page 19* g4 x0 X% E& V) l5 e) {
Recognizing Systems......Page 20
6 _; `6 a+ [: P( j, O6 OAssembling Data......Page 2##Understanding Past and Ongoing Global Transitions......Page 26
i" {) K) W9 T0 j! h6 }& u+ z5 aMaking Fundamental Choices Concerning Model Type......Page 28
" e& o% G3 {) J7 J0 HBuilding Algorithms......Page ##Making Choices at the Equation Level......Page ##Using Statistical Fit as a Guide, Not a Straitjacket......Page ##Considering Both Distal and Proximate Drivers......Page ##Looking for and Understanding Leverage Points......Page ##Using the Model and Exploring Uncertainty......Page ##Exploring Transformative Uncertainty......Page ##Verification, Validation, and Accreditation......Page ##Addressing Errors of Omission and Commission......Page 42: P# ^& F) p6 D1 |6 h
References......Page 4##Foundational Work......Page 45* R- |) q- e2 h1 Z) H5 O/ w
The First Wave......Page 460 D9 X8 K$ n2 G X( C0 z
New Capabilities......Page 47
" H5 U2 D- ?# @- Y. ~) BIntegrated Assessment Models......Page 49
& {. x8 z# R" Z* Z& b, PComparative Use of IAMs......Page 50
- U* u! s# K" {, L) GComparative Assessments of IAM Structures......Page 512 r! I5 {3 y5 o4 o
Status of and Challenges for Global Model Building and Use......Page 59
6 p3 z2 w3 R9 _, T! WCoverage and Connections......Page 60" C2 m: a/ @& R# D
Transparency and Openness......Page 61- T7 I# Z% e9 @5 Q9 h; a
Challenges in Model Use: Dealing With Uncertainty......Page 62
+ O9 N) s( C0 VShared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)......Page 6##Other Integrative Analytical Initiatives......Page 65
& n# }: h1 s d3 `% DReferences......Page 66
+ J/ O+ K9 ]8 Y& A9 cStructural Overview of IFs......Page 7##Data Analysis......Page 78
) Z* _" P# C* @7 GCreation of Scenarios......Page 79
! W# w1 I y$ u CUsers and Uses of IFs......Page 804 n" y- l6 ]6 P H4 r, |9 D
Looking Ahead......Page 82 H6 y1 K, i) F5 r2 p
References......Page 8##Population......Page 88
- I; n0 S2 I8 p( I, S! oConcepts, Structures, and Data......Page 895 N9 f' z5 }0 ?8 N% W( e. q
Demographic Transitions......Page 91
1 ~$ a. L1 _% tModeling Population, Especially Fertility......Page 9##Population in IFs......Page 96! ^- Z0 d2 g. |5 a5 ], r
Fertility Rate......Page 97
2 a" M8 t+ S1 K5 e! k$ BMortality and Migration......Page 1003 Y. I5 m* f- k+ T1 [" n& B
Limitations......Page 1015 J2 d% a Z/ K m4 g# V% G
Comparative Scenarios......Page 102
* j/ L# |4 |) I/ rConcepts, Structures, and Data......Page 104
* W7 w: N) c/ }. B# oHealth Transitions......Page 105* V, v3 d+ E: z+ F/ Y* i
Modeling Health, Especially Mortality......Page 106
& H1 O) o2 x! |: x, B* YHealth in IFs......Page 108: B- P$ J( d7 G
The Distal Foundation......Page 109/ ]" q) f3 t, x/ | P9 N
The Risk Assessment Overlay......Page 112
: M+ w5 |1 u, V9 w" q- D- ]Combining the Distal and Proximate Risk Drivers......Page 114( K5 B9 O5 D/ e% u9 w9 t
Other Important Health Variables......Page 115: O4 @2 F3 ^7 |4 P
Comparative Scenarios......Page 116
8 h* F a; H J6 R$ J6 oEducation......Page 117
' U- M# g g5 O; N" y9 g% B: W! _Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 118$ `% r% j; {/ p9 a' |5 l, e
Education Transitions......Page 120% O: l& K; g) C# a* }( C. M
Modeling Education Progression......Page 122' p8 e% }% F+ W! I4 ^: V$ o
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发表于 2020-7-3 08:19:39