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标题（title）：International Futures: Building and Using Global Models
% h/ b* K( Q6 u国际期货：建立和使用全球模型
2 [( L% `9 e4 Q5 P. z) U作者（author）：Barry Hughes; f- U o7 E( l. m
出版社（publisher）：Academic Press) `. X' s& _) u1 g" n
大小（size）：13 MB (1#897#42 bytes)( c& C6 A# p. M7 D
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) |9 q5 K, i) K9 d) cInternational Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system.
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* E" i5 e% o: ?" r3 ~" ^Finally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years.
; a( ^# E- @3 G& z4 UTable of contents : . l" v& p$ {! X! \( P7 ]6 g* s
Cover......Page 14 ]: F# G# {, S
INTERNATIONAL
% V5 q P" @) O& E" G, H2 hFUTURES, |% h# z6 h( D% [0 `! d* W
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2 G7 Y6 R' @0 M. @5 q5 l) i! ^Building and Using Global Models......Page ##Copyright......Page 4! x) D8 N& F: `$ G5 M2 C
Prologue......Page 52 G7 Z3 J4 ]& `0 M% Q* D
Glossary I: Model Acronyms and Abbreviations......Page 7
$ Y* H( w. j+ ?0 L) Q% u& U- P' dGlossary II: Modeling-Related Concepts, Tools, and Databases......Page 9
/ M! ^, R6 W7 T2 \3 dGlossary III: Organizations, Projects, and Teams......Page 11
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; }+ v! L/ L O- e; `" S) IIntroduction......Page 1##What Path Are We On?......Page 14
q9 ^ ], }% w4 EWhat Leverage Do We Have?......Page 15
2 V' M3 u& [6 \How Do We Address Uncertainty?......Page 16. ` B/ d1 S, `2 _
The Plan of the Volume......Page 17+ }( h# w+ {8 J- n: _# @
References......Page 18' v% v5 [4 q% Q: B6 ~2 q, r& h
Identifying Concepts......Page 19( ]& M8 j* O/ ^- k& O
Recognizing Systems......Page 202 f! \- v% |, e' ?# z
Assembling Data......Page 2##Understanding Past and Ongoing Global Transitions......Page 264 L& u& C4 C! s
Making Fundamental Choices Concerning Model Type......Page 28, t& v4 W0 T6 |- f% g' C
Building Algorithms......Page ##Making Choices at the Equation Level......Page ##Using Statistical Fit as a Guide, Not a Straitjacket......Page ##Considering Both Distal and Proximate Drivers......Page ##Looking for and Understanding Leverage Points......Page ##Using the Model and Exploring Uncertainty......Page ##Exploring Transformative Uncertainty......Page ##Verification, Validation, and Accreditation......Page ##Addressing Errors of Omission and Commission......Page 42; ~* A: k9 N, m
References......Page 4##Foundational Work......Page 45' s+ f* }/ T, _+ Q6 C! L0 X8 D! N
The First Wave......Page 46
@7 C: o: [! N" `New Capabilities......Page 47
) r6 L) c6 e3 xIntegrated Assessment Models......Page 49
4 Z4 |' w- b" [3 ^# S) ^. w3 E- n+ ZComparative Use of IAMs......Page 50
- d) P3 ]3 q: ` }! F7 kComparative Assessments of IAM Structures......Page 51
6 m% R/ x8 F; ~- E- PStatus of and Challenges for Global Model Building and Use......Page 59
" X. P7 \8 @; x- O& aCoverage and Connections......Page 606 a. n6 u' y: L
Transparency and Openness......Page 611 g2 ~) ?" O% _6 c
Challenges in Model Use: Dealing With Uncertainty......Page 62
7 b* } v( y4 N4 dShared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)......Page 6##Other Integrative Analytical Initiatives......Page 65
8 P- \, j1 C& d( W/ ]: aReferences......Page 66+ |; O* U. P+ }8 V( F
Structural Overview of IFs......Page 7##Data Analysis......Page 780 ^+ ?* J5 I) A |2 T* p
Creation of Scenarios......Page 79
- B( T( }/ k. l4 Q, oUsers and Uses of IFs......Page 80' g$ n* }, U. W# @+ g" R
Looking Ahead......Page 82
N$ E/ L7 F- W% Z! h: bReferences......Page 8##Population......Page 88
5 u R2 v; U4 ]2 r vConcepts, Structures, and Data......Page 890 W; @8 ?$ L2 U4 ^. W4 L
Demographic Transitions......Page 910 V" H" l5 q& i$ m4 X% [
Modeling Population, Especially Fertility......Page 9##Population in IFs......Page 96
5 B: x$ g* J# fFertility Rate......Page 97
! [! _& A5 X. N6 Q& F; P' WMortality and Migration......Page 100, l* Z1 L+ M% M/ L5 F4 f' ]* L; l
Limitations......Page 101
0 R# y3 M/ x$ R3 b+ V3 i, AComparative Scenarios......Page 102
, \. M4 q0 B; f: Z6 r h0 i4 B) L" cConcepts, Structures, and Data......Page 1048 V9 f5 h/ S( K' B. S: _& t
Health Transitions......Page 1059 n+ [" O9 S" E8 C3 G5 Q" R
Modeling Health, Especially Mortality......Page 106+ Q8 d' x* e8 Q, u9 U* ]
Health in IFs......Page 108
6 E3 ?( ?3 d- A W1 r. ZThe Distal Foundation......Page 109
- G+ [& T, x2 A! z7 IThe Risk Assessment Overlay......Page 112
- I% ^# d" m0 V* u+ r1 {9 |Combining the Distal and Proximate Risk Drivers......Page 1144 u% c u) o* S9 a* m0 u
Other Important Health Variables......Page 115% u: [1 Z+ j$ x7 M
Comparative Scenarios......Page 116/ H t% C- s1 j9 |8 c
Education......Page 117% D, I) ~% D9 d3 S& G
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 118
2 G' v" w3 X; ]8 F" N: jEducation Transitions......Page 120# v9 M8 w. ^% j0 y: R* i- H
Modeling Education Progression......Page 1222 Y+ o+ ^% X. @# E9 c
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发表于 2020-7-3 08:19:39