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# Z$ i% b o% L) d标题（title）：International Futures: Building and Using Global Models0 N* M" t/ K' f6 \' V. ?
国际期货：建立和使用全球模型
/ Y6 g5 q5 n6 ^5 r6 m2 f作者（author）：Barry Hughes
; b( f) G, @: F! e出版社（publisher）：Academic Press4 Z6 l; A' M5 K! _# V% p
大小（size）：13 MB (1#897#42 bytes)6 z) S- G+ O) T
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International Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system.
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Finally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years.( F5 v$ G- J. |5 c/ M
Table of contents : 6 U8 a: q0 n0 o, q4 p: z$ y
Cover......Page 17 W/ a C; T; \4 O1 ~9 x
INTERNATIONAL4 V/ h* s0 L7 V" z
FUTURES
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4 |8 p% ^, P& ]% o* `& Z; RBuilding and Using Global Models......Page ##Copyright......Page 4
: ^+ b( D; H& C& g: kPrologue......Page 5
" \5 L' g9 ?+ g7 a& B9 I/ ^Glossary I: Model Acronyms and Abbreviations......Page 7
" |1 ?0 y3 w! s5 H, T7 F$ }* v9 SGlossary II: Modeling-Related Concepts, Tools, and Databases......Page 9) E: x" k7 S5 V/ a
Glossary III: Organizations, Projects, and Teams......Page 11& |8 ?$ D7 G' {0 P
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. k# ~8 v# C; C3 sIntroduction......Page 1##What Path Are We On?......Page 14
4 o$ `) I/ W7 e WWhat Leverage Do We Have?......Page 15
$ l# r; m- Q6 T. R4 d5 y IHow Do We Address Uncertainty?......Page 16; G5 A4 o8 B; f- j, S/ o
The Plan of the Volume......Page 17
% s# B1 ?" Q$ ]& n K; eReferences......Page 18$ P7 H4 ^: a7 r$ U: N
Identifying Concepts......Page 195 a% z' c% H% S2 N; f
Recognizing Systems......Page 209 p* {, v3 h( C7 K. W& o
Assembling Data......Page 2##Understanding Past and Ongoing Global Transitions......Page 26& j0 L2 |5 A# o& e
Making Fundamental Choices Concerning Model Type......Page 28$ O: d A* E# m$ S5 N
Building Algorithms......Page ##Making Choices at the Equation Level......Page ##Using Statistical Fit as a Guide, Not a Straitjacket......Page ##Considering Both Distal and Proximate Drivers......Page ##Looking for and Understanding Leverage Points......Page ##Using the Model and Exploring Uncertainty......Page ##Exploring Transformative Uncertainty......Page ##Verification, Validation, and Accreditation......Page ##Addressing Errors of Omission and Commission......Page 429 J& |& ?) ?% D4 M" I& x D
References......Page 4##Foundational Work......Page 45
$ R: r8 ]* Y, VThe First Wave......Page 46
$ i; R$ p8 ]$ D2 M) C) ^New Capabilities......Page 47
! b2 f5 H% P( ?: `7 [Integrated Assessment Models......Page 49
! C' T, a! {0 A5 [: i; p! H3 G1 tComparative Use of IAMs......Page 50! [& F+ F: G$ l$ x7 l
Comparative Assessments of IAM Structures......Page 51
( U! z5 C$ A5 b# {& ]4 OStatus of and Challenges for Global Model Building and Use......Page 593 `1 }$ q& b! x" P* a7 t0 z
Coverage and Connections......Page 60: Q( Q' { B/ }
Transparency and Openness......Page 61
% B/ q2 v3 m, QChallenges in Model Use: Dealing With Uncertainty......Page 62
& ]& Z* [+ |2 f2 XShared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)......Page 6##Other Integrative Analytical Initiatives......Page 657 S% a( e2 W6 _- E1 X8 j
References......Page 667 D, z4 S N$ g5 l- Z
Structural Overview of IFs......Page 7##Data Analysis......Page 78
- b. S* ]" o& W; ?! aCreation of Scenarios......Page 79
, U, }' E! F* X: r: F2 v. IUsers and Uses of IFs......Page 80
# a# e4 F) t# b. s; YLooking Ahead......Page 82
9 I7 {" K+ L# g, y5 g( F; u: t, CReferences......Page 8##Population......Page 88
* [( K: X5 K# b7 k& T$ W: Q4 T7 M" KConcepts, Structures, and Data......Page 89
7 A% X5 z; m/ UDemographic Transitions......Page 91
+ ^. _5 ?( s- {% z+ KModeling Population, Especially Fertility......Page 9##Population in IFs......Page 96( y, z5 y: r1 E+ L4 z/ o9 [
Fertility Rate......Page 97" \% m; |9 M' y- H
Mortality and Migration......Page 100
* T O( W( N/ Y3 E. I5 QLimitations......Page 101
% f' `; P; Z4 d' fComparative Scenarios......Page 102
B j' S+ p: F, k( S4 @, o+ GConcepts, Structures, and Data......Page 104( ~) S3 z. ?2 Y# ]6 P# h
Health Transitions......Page 1055 T% u) Z) S# L" W- E1 B6 l" q
Modeling Health, Especially Mortality......Page 106
5 _/ h$ `0 g' Z1 mHealth in IFs......Page 108
8 }2 l' {; K' `4 b' hThe Distal Foundation......Page 109. S- c& v6 P) c& W
The Risk Assessment Overlay......Page 112
! L" Q+ x4 c* K4 ~" BCombining the Distal and Proximate Risk Drivers......Page 114
2 V, a9 i) C2 R0 dOther Important Health Variables......Page 115- {# I6 h) X- R' o% H7 d
Comparative Scenarios......Page 1161 F0 }9 C" @) }' h. E6 ]
Education......Page 1179 ^# p4 ~8 L0 Q! n
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 118+ K" |3 b% f7 t9 i
Education Transitions......Page 120 {! P/ x3 J7 x) r
Modeling Education Progression......Page 122
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发表于 2020-7-3 08:19:39