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标题（title）：International Futures: Building and Using Global Models
o l4 y2 U+ h& N$ P% E# @/ L国际期货：建立和使用全球模型6 H3 s% D) N8 @! J& S1 b0 W
作者（author）：Barry Hughes
2 ~$ t6 o6 D8 }; D" e; R$ E! @出版社（publisher）：Academic Press! h* D7 M6 m6 q, v, }1 s6 p F
大小（size）：13 MB (1#897#42 bytes)9 n3 j% _! A* _( u
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International Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system.% X) ~- o- L! q/ ~0 {; `
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" w7 B5 R, m: YFinally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years. S& o2 o C! D$ d
Table of contents : . I j# V3 v& L0 `, I
Cover......Page 1
" G- i% q6 a. H# wINTERNATIONAL
& d y( ~; c8 l+ N& \. R% ?FUTURES
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: K* F- i$ F) YBuilding and Using Global Models......Page ##Copyright......Page 4
. ^1 z# C* ?% xPrologue......Page 5/ p+ P; f: [" A6 o, w! ?( U
Glossary I: Model Acronyms and Abbreviations......Page 7+ Q' H/ u6 e& }9 E( Z1 L7 X3 n
Glossary II: Modeling-Related Concepts, Tools, and Databases......Page 9
, G$ X0 g* s( iGlossary III: Organizations, Projects, and Teams......Page 11
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Introduction......Page 1##What Path Are We On?......Page 145 {8 O, w9 B' B
What Leverage Do We Have?......Page 153 q; [# [& K7 m; h! Z8 h* _! ^
How Do We Address Uncertainty?......Page 16- z0 d5 W. Y! D! ~3 a% ?
The Plan of the Volume......Page 17, W/ v+ {9 }( ~
References......Page 18
5 V. m! J: T6 O- g7 q, lIdentifying Concepts......Page 19 S7 W* k- O9 r4 d
Recognizing Systems......Page 20# N- L) y3 u$ d% ~, O/ m
Assembling Data......Page 2##Understanding Past and Ongoing Global Transitions......Page 26
1 w; H7 e# a$ V, o9 sMaking Fundamental Choices Concerning Model Type......Page 280 }. ?1 p) B9 n/ L
Building Algorithms......Page ##Making Choices at the Equation Level......Page ##Using Statistical Fit as a Guide, Not a Straitjacket......Page ##Considering Both Distal and Proximate Drivers......Page ##Looking for and Understanding Leverage Points......Page ##Using the Model and Exploring Uncertainty......Page ##Exploring Transformative Uncertainty......Page ##Verification, Validation, and Accreditation......Page ##Addressing Errors of Omission and Commission......Page 42
n T. A$ d! ?( D, }References......Page 4##Foundational Work......Page 45
6 T; I& [* t6 P8 U) ]9 J' b/ vThe First Wave......Page 46
3 T3 @2 W; i6 K2 A! Z: e/ P, Y5 x! jNew Capabilities......Page 47% t- @0 Y" } _
Integrated Assessment Models......Page 49
! h$ b" r5 h X5 `4 m; HComparative Use of IAMs......Page 50
& `0 R7 b0 ^! KComparative Assessments of IAM Structures......Page 51, F; N9 P* q$ L6 R: X5 d$ E
Status of and Challenges for Global Model Building and Use......Page 597 A; ?. P1 E0 U- {
Coverage and Connections......Page 60
5 \- D1 U/ |" U( g$ aTransparency and Openness......Page 61
+ {( g2 {) ?* j; Z0 kChallenges in Model Use: Dealing With Uncertainty......Page 62
+ l( v9 n7 C9 b4 `) o1 y1 p' ?$ JShared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)......Page 6##Other Integrative Analytical Initiatives......Page 65
+ w- R) r: x+ y" y: YReferences......Page 666 N! ^" Y, C& K! V; O C
Structural Overview of IFs......Page 7##Data Analysis......Page 78
D2 l7 X7 c! T# d( u& o+ _5 qCreation of Scenarios......Page 79
& ~4 D5 o# P+ F0 ~: A0 z' W2 jUsers and Uses of IFs......Page 80
9 I; d! n0 v: J6 m/ _6 OLooking Ahead......Page 82
7 P8 q! ~+ @1 MReferences......Page 8##Population......Page 88) a# K6 z8 B# j! H. y9 E1 h
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 89% s2 U7 g0 \) H7 D( n2 X4 z
Demographic Transitions......Page 91( S4 m6 q' r K3 n/ w
Modeling Population, Especially Fertility......Page 9##Population in IFs......Page 967 M! s7 W1 f' {& L. i
Fertility Rate......Page 97
: L# ~1 }1 y4 {- o6 T/ j' `+ sMortality and Migration......Page 100" D( h% Y9 f" I6 X
Limitations......Page 101
& O' k) N; ^' d2 lComparative Scenarios......Page 1024 c' J: P' T/ q4 |) {$ G; r
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 104
3 ~8 z2 V6 g& ^. O. |7 sHealth Transitions......Page 1055 ], S3 O8 c. Q& R8 D
Modeling Health, Especially Mortality......Page 106
' j! a$ G% m' w- w* y$ X! x$ cHealth in IFs......Page 108
n i% R, K1 E4 H4 l7 TThe Distal Foundation......Page 109* v2 V8 m' B7 p& u
The Risk Assessment Overlay......Page 112
% ]; j8 o5 @: S: PCombining the Distal and Proximate Risk Drivers......Page 114
3 N' D0 m& p( i; aOther Important Health Variables......Page 115
' f8 y, i! q* m, qComparative Scenarios......Page 116" x: T0 @4 J& g; f$ ]7 {8 q, j( q) o
Education......Page 117
6 x+ V3 ~/ V6 O% yConcepts, Structures, and Data......Page 118
' L7 |2 X' R9 B; n$ U# z3 f, REducation Transitions......Page 1204 Q6 b5 [8 `# L* Q3 |" A/ t# b1 Q& K
Modeling Education Progression......Page 122/ _3 T3 w7 }- `# B0 f, t, u5 r) l
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发表于 2020-7-3 08:19:39