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标题（title）：International Futures: Building and Using Global Models
4 i: X5 s5 e: W2 D1 p1 x$ L国际期货：建立和使用全球模型" v& `2 D Y* J
作者（author）：Barry Hughes
! ?; b6 R3 `3 l* W. X; g# e, U( \出版社（publisher）：Academic Press( N( P; V/ t, z7 Z
大小（size）：13 MB (1#897#42 bytes)
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International Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system.
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& G0 I% r: S( O: q, }. yFinally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years.
# H4 F/ w/ f* u& ^/ {! f. ~Table of contents : . S8 }2 V+ M* W' N$ d4 a
Cover......Page 11 M: I* R, r$ ^! b/ j
INTERNATIONAL, ]: ~8 a P( U/ U8 a. ^
FUTURES: M# z) w) I6 O+ m& [0 R4 G- l
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Building and Using Global Models......Page ##Copyright......Page 4$ V R+ K* ^/ d+ E/ ? w
Prologue......Page 5
+ t) N) D2 e/ aGlossary I: Model Acronyms and Abbreviations......Page 73 }4 x( |2 L$ p6 {5 g! ~
Glossary II: Modeling-Related Concepts, Tools, and Databases......Page 9
6 o" j2 x& [3 Y; c4 v0 t" bGlossary III: Organizations, Projects, and Teams......Page 11
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Introduction......Page 1##What Path Are We On?......Page 14
6 y: A3 d% i' A7 e' ~ GWhat Leverage Do We Have?......Page 15
) [3 p7 i+ y r7 y1 RHow Do We Address Uncertainty?......Page 16( v" q @, L6 M: P
The Plan of the Volume......Page 17: f# c9 a. Z* }" G
References......Page 18: ]; P" V5 [# b* R
Identifying Concepts......Page 19
$ P8 U+ ]% f; g2 O$ ?7 WRecognizing Systems......Page 20
% c7 f1 @2 _- `- L( GAssembling Data......Page 2##Understanding Past and Ongoing Global Transitions......Page 26
* r% i+ C# u D% F8 C- mMaking Fundamental Choices Concerning Model Type......Page 28
# a: x! o |% X3 E1 }Building Algorithms......Page ##Making Choices at the Equation Level......Page ##Using Statistical Fit as a Guide, Not a Straitjacket......Page ##Considering Both Distal and Proximate Drivers......Page ##Looking for and Understanding Leverage Points......Page ##Using the Model and Exploring Uncertainty......Page ##Exploring Transformative Uncertainty......Page ##Verification, Validation, and Accreditation......Page ##Addressing Errors of Omission and Commission......Page 422 _! J9 v" U; }, U6 {
References......Page 4##Foundational Work......Page 453 @1 @8 e+ {7 q. U
The First Wave......Page 46
7 `) o a) |2 q% Q; _New Capabilities......Page 47
5 W i' Z; a* Q5 o7 Z; }Integrated Assessment Models......Page 49
/ h% R! e1 j$ i; ^1 P4 IComparative Use of IAMs......Page 502 A! ?/ q7 X) t3 B" v8 {
Comparative Assessments of IAM Structures......Page 515 ~. \5 \/ t; w( N. l/ K
Status of and Challenges for Global Model Building and Use......Page 59
' Y- y; ?4 }( Z0 Z3 N/ [+ u) dCoverage and Connections......Page 60
$ H" Z. C9 s, Q- z* o6 ~( ITransparency and Openness......Page 61
* V D. ?0 w+ F4 hChallenges in Model Use: Dealing With Uncertainty......Page 62
9 ^) F' a& _0 K1 R7 o( tShared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)......Page 6##Other Integrative Analytical Initiatives......Page 65
f: u- G9 m/ U$ V8 G f* eReferences......Page 664 Z% m) G% g, P% [5 W. V# O
Structural Overview of IFs......Page 7##Data Analysis......Page 78
9 n3 V; P4 ~& U' q! ACreation of Scenarios......Page 79
# Q. ]9 @% F6 U, Z8 O# xUsers and Uses of IFs......Page 802 t( B6 r2 U/ {3 N5 y3 k
Looking Ahead......Page 82
. q- E& O+ W6 O# \References......Page 8##Population......Page 88
9 F! p6 p5 E* N5 M0 x7 T" FConcepts, Structures, and Data......Page 89+ X4 p3 y0 }% i+ W# g
Demographic Transitions......Page 91' L. ]3 t' @3 u
Modeling Population, Especially Fertility......Page 9##Population in IFs......Page 96: z, D: V' C: R' L% D
Fertility Rate......Page 973 u5 v" @" C% u: t/ B/ E( `$ L
Mortality and Migration......Page 100
' f4 D& C% U( n5 u( HLimitations......Page 101
+ |: R7 F1 i0 _$ A) a: Y0 o7 jComparative Scenarios......Page 102! b* t9 [7 m. A1 F! u: {6 _7 Z/ a
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 104
8 S( V5 f; T* T7 [- P# iHealth Transitions......Page 105) G3 Y2 c8 i$ p+ @( R4 n
Modeling Health, Especially Mortality......Page 1062 s& a* V o7 [+ ~2 C3 ^' w
Health in IFs......Page 108
2 d+ q$ R4 P, X; X5 W' ~The Distal Foundation......Page 109
* i5 [: t* G1 F8 b8 h3 G( \: ?The Risk Assessment Overlay......Page 112
# i: l4 D" B8 ?4 \% F( P' fCombining the Distal and Proximate Risk Drivers......Page 114
/ B3 c/ {( ]" T7 C s& W2 fOther Important Health Variables......Page 115. X# W$ w8 c7 Q7 u) n$ b
Comparative Scenarios......Page 116
. e# I( y# ^/ GEducation......Page 1177 m% P3 G8 s: F2 w3 m! V' [
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 118) ]9 `& z% S9 i2 T' U# U {: @
Education Transitions......Page 1204 ~" q! c3 e. h) ?- H
Modeling Education Progression......Page 1228 `" C+ x2 B' X# D. s6 S2 t P
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