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8 k- c8 z4 [/ m+ l标题（title）：International Futures: Building and Using Global Models3 P/ Z) d a, y6 Z2 r) Y- I
国际期货：建立和使用全球模型4 V9 U: [6 E' ^8 x, d8 l$ {/ W* |4 D
作者（author）：Barry Hughes
4 A# a' g# T# i) L6 G# f1 j4 \* K出版社（publisher）：Academic Press
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International Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system.' B, ~$ _- l/ T9 z8 i
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, W5 \3 e8 Q, r9 i4 ]1 t) Y! i2 X# k5 lFinally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years.% ?/ N8 z6 o _6 {' M+ b& f# |
Table of contents : 0 I" m$ j* s4 \; q' |
Cover......Page 17 R; A/ h) ^. S8 l' a
INTERNATIONAL
" r/ ~" q" `0 e* \6 EFUTURES
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Building and Using Global Models......Page ##Copyright......Page 4
# F: B3 `; \( U8 ZPrologue......Page 5$ b( i9 g' L. u$ z! @& B( U
Glossary I: Model Acronyms and Abbreviations......Page 7
8 P7 `, f0 v7 U9 q a( DGlossary II: Modeling-Related Concepts, Tools, and Databases......Page 96 r2 R/ K) d$ I3 k' u: ?' L/ k
Glossary III: Organizations, Projects, and Teams......Page 115 Y' F6 P" ]# ]2 ?
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Introduction......Page 1##What Path Are We On?......Page 14$ ?- V# Y% P/ x4 y- ^
What Leverage Do We Have?......Page 15
" m$ N8 K9 ~9 k, m# a- i- O2 T K }* JHow Do We Address Uncertainty?......Page 16
& W# o* s" Y, H9 x# ]: c. VThe Plan of the Volume......Page 17, I9 Z' l. g2 \
References......Page 18* I$ R: P5 ~% f$ H6 c; |1 \
Identifying Concepts......Page 19
. \* w: E* I) ]5 z" QRecognizing Systems......Page 20' V- K3 y* s; ~
Assembling Data......Page 2##Understanding Past and Ongoing Global Transitions......Page 26' I' F! D7 O# e7 w1 }$ ]
Making Fundamental Choices Concerning Model Type......Page 28) T; j- w. e4 w/ w1 E, W) S
Building Algorithms......Page ##Making Choices at the Equation Level......Page ##Using Statistical Fit as a Guide, Not a Straitjacket......Page ##Considering Both Distal and Proximate Drivers......Page ##Looking for and Understanding Leverage Points......Page ##Using the Model and Exploring Uncertainty......Page ##Exploring Transformative Uncertainty......Page ##Verification, Validation, and Accreditation......Page ##Addressing Errors of Omission and Commission......Page 42
; g J* Y- J/ K0 ^3 HReferences......Page 4##Foundational Work......Page 45
# ]" f6 t: h0 FThe First Wave......Page 468 N3 [3 Y' v! i* _. t, ]& d
New Capabilities......Page 471 p8 u8 K u8 B3 N6 j( I7 g( f
Integrated Assessment Models......Page 49
$ `2 L, s, }" n* x) LComparative Use of IAMs......Page 50+ U* p1 m L5 h
Comparative Assessments of IAM Structures......Page 51, a' g4 I2 z) W0 z
Status of and Challenges for Global Model Building and Use......Page 59
$ M9 `' g! w A4 j! F# i! J, KCoverage and Connections......Page 60: }# R# q' M' f& c! c
Transparency and Openness......Page 61, C) ~- l3 [3 Q% W0 C' H
Challenges in Model Use: Dealing With Uncertainty......Page 62
7 I! G( B e! u4 {9 b3 VShared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)......Page 6##Other Integrative Analytical Initiatives......Page 65 ]$ R ]. O4 e1 I& D1 i
References......Page 66
{0 t j O K/ s. ?5 QStructural Overview of IFs......Page 7##Data Analysis......Page 78( e2 o5 Y: j% X# t
Creation of Scenarios......Page 79: t3 G) i) d- J) j
Users and Uses of IFs......Page 80
! @1 X$ I- s) \- Z- C4 ILooking Ahead......Page 824 u, C9 h! B! P/ @9 |, c
References......Page 8##Population......Page 88
2 i+ _7 Z s# G# J. h' o$ X* WConcepts, Structures, and Data......Page 89
# |4 C: k! J' EDemographic Transitions......Page 91
: m& }* K" x: j+ j/ n8 d5 J# iModeling Population, Especially Fertility......Page 9##Population in IFs......Page 969 A- t* Z5 e% M! E0 ^, _# X
Fertility Rate......Page 974 j) M8 H/ x# S2 h8 L2 \
Mortality and Migration......Page 100) v! h& ]* o% n& \
Limitations......Page 101+ \* B- U5 u2 ~0 Q( p
Comparative Scenarios......Page 102
- S' z1 G2 M$ K1 D1 H3 n+ R7 VConcepts, Structures, and Data......Page 104! m7 t3 z( t$ i; x) ]
Health Transitions......Page 105
/ R9 C4 l+ s, HModeling Health, Especially Mortality......Page 1061 h- M! a! k/ p# H& h. O
Health in IFs......Page 108
3 {" N, H$ l; z6 @7 D; ~The Distal Foundation......Page 109" M3 T4 r' |8 c. h- l( U) H; k( u
The Risk Assessment Overlay......Page 1127 t3 n4 f0 B5 Q+ D! ]- S
Combining the Distal and Proximate Risk Drivers......Page 114
0 n8 s5 p+ b# IOther Important Health Variables......Page 1155 a0 k* ~( N3 v y, T
Comparative Scenarios......Page 116
) G5 r. E* I# PEducation......Page 117
0 b+ `8 m7 c8 ^/ e; v2 U% n2 lConcepts, Structures, and Data......Page 118' L$ y& N8 J- e$ P7 m
Education Transitions......Page 120/ G/ n5 y3 `2 B% m7 N
Modeling Education Progression......Page 122
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发表于 2020-7-3 08:19:39