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; X, n9 G# U( [- ]- S标题（title）：International Futures: Building and Using Global Models$ A [! n3 b' y" ~3 H2 d1 V
国际期货：建立和使用全球模型1 W$ A( z) p# o! X) c
作者（author）：Barry Hughes
+ a+ v8 g6 `# N3 H' @' n/ b- g: R出版社（publisher）：Academic Press
* ]" P8 P* T; \' _# \$ D2 L* G2 e2 n大小（size）：13 MB (1#897#42 bytes)
( T) o, s* d* P& d格式（extension）：pdf
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& H g' o+ L; n' R4 w8 sInternational Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system.* d2 M! c4 P0 p! z( s8 T
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1 L0 k1 N% y4 y8 NFinally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years.; a0 ^& n7 b0 h" O3 V) b/ P
Table of contents : - l' Z+ r5 M4 P3 U6 t6 q/ N2 X+ U1 ~
Cover......Page 1
0 c$ ]+ l' r; C! G2 x4 gINTERNATIONAL
6 M: {3 [; A$ iFUTURES
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" g- a: E% F- v$ u1 tBuilding and Using Global Models......Page ##Copyright......Page 4
* D/ h' c( `+ uPrologue......Page 5
+ l0 f' Y0 K8 u" U" z) B' cGlossary I: Model Acronyms and Abbreviations......Page 7: Y2 ~0 |1 ^7 W0 e5 X- Q6 {
Glossary II: Modeling-Related Concepts, Tools, and Databases......Page 9 |4 [' H+ Z( o$ T8 `
Glossary III: Organizations, Projects, and Teams......Page 11
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Introduction......Page 1##What Path Are We On?......Page 14
6 x4 C& m+ T# O! N p7 D" }What Leverage Do We Have?......Page 15
4 u, ^$ I3 }+ F! M8 vHow Do We Address Uncertainty?......Page 163 n: _; k8 F) v( b9 g: ]
The Plan of the Volume......Page 17; W |8 Z- h2 y$ {& Q/ M: i% k
References......Page 18. g0 t* U, ] ~6 s, ]
Identifying Concepts......Page 19' A& s }7 |9 n, p( h+ J
Recognizing Systems......Page 20
+ T5 I. |& ^' Y7 ?3 d) [Assembling Data......Page 2##Understanding Past and Ongoing Global Transitions......Page 26$ e% s1 V& Z, ?
Making Fundamental Choices Concerning Model Type......Page 28
$ a g3 N: F( j, QBuilding Algorithms......Page ##Making Choices at the Equation Level......Page ##Using Statistical Fit as a Guide, Not a Straitjacket......Page ##Considering Both Distal and Proximate Drivers......Page ##Looking for and Understanding Leverage Points......Page ##Using the Model and Exploring Uncertainty......Page ##Exploring Transformative Uncertainty......Page ##Verification, Validation, and Accreditation......Page ##Addressing Errors of Omission and Commission......Page 42
6 S) k$ o% B4 a. ~References......Page 4##Foundational Work......Page 45! ^3 W7 a' T# {2 A5 s5 ]& j, D
The First Wave......Page 46
# e4 k/ K( V9 X/ PNew Capabilities......Page 47
$ M' ]& R4 j4 Q' ]- mIntegrated Assessment Models......Page 49
! R( v+ {) ]4 M- A- a# B& QComparative Use of IAMs......Page 509 C' T1 X: m+ `& _ k T
Comparative Assessments of IAM Structures......Page 51
" Y; W5 A0 I/ P+ x, S FStatus of and Challenges for Global Model Building and Use......Page 59
$ O+ v" I' d. s" N, x6 U( d5 DCoverage and Connections......Page 60
1 W6 B0 J8 m' X- ZTransparency and Openness......Page 61. @! V" Z/ Z0 F$ D+ G# t" J- k
Challenges in Model Use: Dealing With Uncertainty......Page 624 X7 r& e0 d+ b; M, u
Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)......Page 6##Other Integrative Analytical Initiatives......Page 65
& S: y% q( r& C; q' LReferences......Page 66
1 n5 X; ~$ \% G" w: x1 r; M9 rStructural Overview of IFs......Page 7##Data Analysis......Page 788 H$ O8 n! g9 ~, K2 J
Creation of Scenarios......Page 79
5 j) p9 j/ q8 h7 x) j4 @1 aUsers and Uses of IFs......Page 80
% O. U8 }+ J0 X& QLooking Ahead......Page 82
u$ h* b* d! W- | u, YReferences......Page 8##Population......Page 88
9 n; ]8 P" V- }7 lConcepts, Structures, and Data......Page 894 O4 W" t x- H' i5 Y- `' B
Demographic Transitions......Page 91- L& {) o1 K: B( H# u
Modeling Population, Especially Fertility......Page 9##Population in IFs......Page 964 p2 c+ F% A4 X5 \4 Y% V8 h
Fertility Rate......Page 97
4 w+ H# t* {) x" g; ^- RMortality and Migration......Page 100
; P7 \0 e5 E& ^) uLimitations......Page 101: X* \& j. b! G2 Q- p A4 |( i
Comparative Scenarios......Page 102! }+ V, f# H" [/ z
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 104
x' {( D+ ~2 Z* j& ?- pHealth Transitions......Page 105
8 v; X; m( P: H8 S# TModeling Health, Especially Mortality......Page 106; h; r. P/ q" o) ]3 ?( s* H) u6 ^% |
Health in IFs......Page 108/ G/ ?6 K& E- N$ _$ P/ E0 a( [
The Distal Foundation......Page 1095 \/ t7 `* p" L$ E. B7 u C
The Risk Assessment Overlay......Page 1124 F/ W( X6 \, @7 M- b+ y$ f' M
Combining the Distal and Proximate Risk Drivers......Page 114
& O3 B# E* n/ j+ ? n3 ~4 sOther Important Health Variables......Page 115
1 _6 F7 t% X4 \* g2 MComparative Scenarios......Page 1167 I& i5 d5 Z# Z/ a- j7 y5 I
Education......Page 117# i" M$ i5 A2 t8 p5 L
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 118
5 l7 R O) }0 [9 X1 q( f! X7 PEducation Transitions......Page 120) d' Z- l, y; C
Modeling Education Progression......Page 1227 G0 q! k& J' t# r3 j4 i
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发表于 2020-7-3 08:19:39