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H M7 n( e. }- J, t8 U3 Q1 {标题（title）：International Futures: Building and Using Global Models, c" C" Z# G+ Q" L! N* P
国际期货：建立和使用全球模型2 E# n- w" Y2 e" C( ^
作者（author）：Barry Hughes! m6 d; i' A: |3 i
出版社（publisher）：Academic Press
0 U# m9 x+ \* C7 z, v/ `大小（size）：13 MB (1#897#42 bytes)
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International Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system.! M2 S, Z$ U g- T
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4 T3 M8 S* C! w3 x( kFinally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years." n3 Z- i/ J3 ?: p
Table of contents :
7 R: K# d5 ]- Q2 @+ KCover......Page 1% k; r* Z/ p; C4 b7 j# l7 a4 T
INTERNATIONAL9 p) a+ I1 {: v! B1 i- D5 `4 B
FUTURES
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' ~8 f& P* t ~* d" i1 cBuilding and Using Global Models......Page ##Copyright......Page 4
+ n- R' j/ D' E: l6 I) R* RPrologue......Page 5
6 L4 D: l- u& z. z {3 ^, Q4 c' _8 V0 ^. aGlossary I: Model Acronyms and Abbreviations......Page 7
6 R0 W5 _+ r W: ^0 Q( u1 m3 wGlossary II: Modeling-Related Concepts, Tools, and Databases......Page 9) [4 [2 R1 l, q
Glossary III: Organizations, Projects, and Teams......Page 114 m; m' o( |4 \4 v1 f8 ?
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: [. I M, q* AIntroduction......Page 1##What Path Are We On?......Page 143 x. m4 l( C3 ~0 U) T: ~: H P
What Leverage Do We Have?......Page 15
) P: s3 B( G* C4 ]6 S) ^% n; `# zHow Do We Address Uncertainty?......Page 16* ?8 n- h9 N$ c9 u4 w
The Plan of the Volume......Page 170 L+ _5 f7 _% G- C
References......Page 18
- w: m% \6 Q8 a8 q4 tIdentifying Concepts......Page 19
. c3 j" T! B1 oRecognizing Systems......Page 20
: X0 q4 [! O4 {2 b W' RAssembling Data......Page 2##Understanding Past and Ongoing Global Transitions......Page 26$ [" K9 T( X: y, Z& B
Making Fundamental Choices Concerning Model Type......Page 28/ H' N7 X( P: o7 z- F
Building Algorithms......Page ##Making Choices at the Equation Level......Page ##Using Statistical Fit as a Guide, Not a Straitjacket......Page ##Considering Both Distal and Proximate Drivers......Page ##Looking for and Understanding Leverage Points......Page ##Using the Model and Exploring Uncertainty......Page ##Exploring Transformative Uncertainty......Page ##Verification, Validation, and Accreditation......Page ##Addressing Errors of Omission and Commission......Page 42" J0 j2 h& v' E3 D
References......Page 4##Foundational Work......Page 45
* [8 g8 d6 i; j2 ]( v# }The First Wave......Page 461 j) f5 g7 Z- O. }! L
New Capabilities......Page 47
7 ~8 ~7 V! S s: M pIntegrated Assessment Models......Page 49
" x4 F9 s1 P) oComparative Use of IAMs......Page 501 r' b8 |& I% e6 a8 [ I
Comparative Assessments of IAM Structures......Page 51# o) L9 p) f7 v; U
Status of and Challenges for Global Model Building and Use......Page 59
* u1 Y5 _/ I' U7 w' J; ?2 MCoverage and Connections......Page 60
# U" u, w8 D ~: _* MTransparency and Openness......Page 61
3 J4 w8 a, y: I( E6 _Challenges in Model Use: Dealing With Uncertainty......Page 62
" B. K7 O0 L8 X, |Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)......Page 6##Other Integrative Analytical Initiatives......Page 655 S9 Y! o7 w# T, X
References......Page 669 d$ k& {; t; x* l5 F8 U! h
Structural Overview of IFs......Page 7##Data Analysis......Page 78
. o6 [! n9 S$ u5 F" ]% [Creation of Scenarios......Page 791 l [) J: z1 D- J0 U- S
Users and Uses of IFs......Page 80
+ j/ ?; E4 U* NLooking Ahead......Page 82$ E' {1 X! g+ S0 k
References......Page 8##Population......Page 88% w3 Q# [5 T! Q) X5 W
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 89
. T( k: I4 X9 G) b( T( Q1 G" I ?Demographic Transitions......Page 916 X' `# g Q- i+ u- b
Modeling Population, Especially Fertility......Page 9##Population in IFs......Page 96
b3 q$ q6 G& v( ~Fertility Rate......Page 97
, |/ i, {: I% b% jMortality and Migration......Page 100
% \' C. s. C: E( h& ?+ r% w' R$ X- zLimitations......Page 101
$ K& q5 S$ n5 TComparative Scenarios......Page 102
! \. y: }3 a7 _Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 104! k" ]" a! |0 T8 p; Y& ?
Health Transitions......Page 1056 o* M& Q! V3 |2 m+ a# X0 i
Modeling Health, Especially Mortality......Page 106
/ i' {8 ?6 `; X9 z: p- ?$ _2 kHealth in IFs......Page 108
9 Z6 _# o2 o* E/ Q" x5 @2 PThe Distal Foundation......Page 1092 [9 J8 [+ h* a: |! T
The Risk Assessment Overlay......Page 112
6 `" h( ^( ?+ S! C8 fCombining the Distal and Proximate Risk Drivers......Page 114
% y4 U/ J, X. a2 Q `/ J/ zOther Important Health Variables......Page 115) ^8 k; j5 s( o5 p" y/ N4 h9 f
Comparative Scenarios......Page 116
5 Z. m S5 U; V& GEducation......Page 117
5 x: G7 x7 A3 ZConcepts, Structures, and Data......Page 118' Q" q: m$ N; {, P2 J
Education Transitions......Page 1208 V9 w# R" }# I0 x
Modeling Education Progression......Page 122
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发表于 2020-7-3 08:19:39