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* a, ~& b' a8 f) Q! A标题（title）：International Futures: Building and Using Global Models
$ v8 a; U$ W& a2 v国际期货：建立和使用全球模型
" U; J1 f% R: C/ ]- |作者（author）：Barry Hughes6 o% g6 [! T7 | x- s
出版社（publisher）：Academic Press
C! a7 K8 Z3 o$ b. C% ]! t# K5 S7 Y大小（size）：13 MB (1#897#42 bytes)- h5 d+ H: S2 J
格式（extension）：pdf
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International Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system.. y7 t: L; r% E+ E; w( `
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Finally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years.$ s% t! k! X) Q/ s! {- H
Table of contents : : x1 f2 n2 b1 C. I
Cover......Page 1
! n3 j' }% ^; G' i6 n( ]INTERNATIONAL
( X \5 C. W( iFUTURES8 k0 @" r( U8 Y" L2 g( R, j9 K
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Building and Using Global Models......Page ##Copyright......Page 4
6 T- y# U, B/ v, k' e; DPrologue......Page 5
- w; J9 T# k1 p/ JGlossary I: Model Acronyms and Abbreviations......Page 70 ~9 J$ M' E9 ]0 C+ {1 o6 G+ g
Glossary II: Modeling-Related Concepts, Tools, and Databases......Page 9
* p* W7 ?3 A4 P Y$ NGlossary III: Organizations, Projects, and Teams......Page 11
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3 |0 ]5 _. x- xIntroduction......Page 1##What Path Are We On?......Page 14, `- O' M* ]/ A" V+ X$ r
What Leverage Do We Have?......Page 15( s; _& _7 M% a/ ]& L7 R1 z
How Do We Address Uncertainty?......Page 160 @* x6 f, j/ T* ~ \+ z% L
The Plan of the Volume......Page 17
3 W1 \. R1 v6 j( ]4 }References......Page 18
3 d5 k* _$ e% F1 v1 [3 X: Z6 T; kIdentifying Concepts......Page 19
4 x# c, v( d8 y2 lRecognizing Systems......Page 20
3 k. B0 m% s0 J' L, l8 A+ c3 TAssembling Data......Page 2##Understanding Past and Ongoing Global Transitions......Page 26
1 K& p7 r( y* e1 {- L& eMaking Fundamental Choices Concerning Model Type......Page 28
& L8 ~& g. k4 Q5 s+ ~, VBuilding Algorithms......Page ##Making Choices at the Equation Level......Page ##Using Statistical Fit as a Guide, Not a Straitjacket......Page ##Considering Both Distal and Proximate Drivers......Page ##Looking for and Understanding Leverage Points......Page ##Using the Model and Exploring Uncertainty......Page ##Exploring Transformative Uncertainty......Page ##Verification, Validation, and Accreditation......Page ##Addressing Errors of Omission and Commission......Page 42 n8 N# ?: a7 Q
References......Page 4##Foundational Work......Page 456 a' H# C' z- _7 t6 C0 p
The First Wave......Page 467 O! H( I, x K+ `
New Capabilities......Page 471 a1 B% H9 Q) f% ^' U+ |/ y
Integrated Assessment Models......Page 49
' B% Y1 r: ]* k" N) t' ?" H ZComparative Use of IAMs......Page 50* W2 B5 B0 X' @3 Q0 V" F
Comparative Assessments of IAM Structures......Page 51
7 l7 I& x, q4 T& h! v6 r7 dStatus of and Challenges for Global Model Building and Use......Page 59
6 A* ]0 i& c$ H$ ?9 K( h9 wCoverage and Connections......Page 60
0 l+ |. b3 a0 kTransparency and Openness......Page 61+ n3 ?7 j8 M) A: Y
Challenges in Model Use: Dealing With Uncertainty......Page 62
7 R* c' D3 H( F D: S4 s" t! e: VShared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)......Page 6##Other Integrative Analytical Initiatives......Page 65
0 U: {2 A0 J9 Z8 Z. ]$ bReferences......Page 66& C3 u6 f' s( F
Structural Overview of IFs......Page 7##Data Analysis......Page 78
) z- \% F/ L# B5 U$ |8 }Creation of Scenarios......Page 794 @9 Q4 J6 `4 A' f0 j+ v
Users and Uses of IFs......Page 80
% J/ h: q& w& GLooking Ahead......Page 82; D# l: ~2 [4 z' d- v. V; N
References......Page 8##Population......Page 88
1 Q+ M* e1 Q( W- C+ pConcepts, Structures, and Data......Page 89
0 z, B2 A3 S& g+ f# X% j8 \: ?Demographic Transitions......Page 91
3 J: p9 K8 V/ W9 S. t# [5 O5 U7 ?Modeling Population, Especially Fertility......Page 9##Population in IFs......Page 96/ J* B% n3 R) X6 a% V+ t
Fertility Rate......Page 97
* v5 o& N Z1 h. f3 G7 DMortality and Migration......Page 100
4 n7 w+ y2 _7 Y: gLimitations......Page 101
+ k7 c+ x' o- U' F6 AComparative Scenarios......Page 102
% L: g$ ~8 Z7 ?) b8 W- C5 DConcepts, Structures, and Data......Page 104) l7 v; l4 |1 ~; w) E% C( w' @
Health Transitions......Page 1053 y4 E }: a! o6 b) ~; ~
Modeling Health, Especially Mortality......Page 106- {! v" V. t/ m4 f. M
Health in IFs......Page 108$ r* Q9 t5 n2 c6 |; r8 c5 v
The Distal Foundation......Page 109
8 s& I+ D) ~* MThe Risk Assessment Overlay......Page 1120 }1 Z8 c2 E; r- ^6 o" z' e
Combining the Distal and Proximate Risk Drivers......Page 114
F" N1 V2 K3 k7 WOther Important Health Variables......Page 115; D% O' \! g- g7 }; t3 {! {
Comparative Scenarios......Page 1165 l2 ~1 Q' }( i+ g6 d' d
Education......Page 117
{ Y3 D2 G2 j; o$ |* D6 ~Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 118( Z$ g3 ^/ @! R) d) ~! h
Education Transitions......Page 120# _! X# j" W+ W O4 L
Modeling Education Progression......Page 122) o# \" h' X4 f: |
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发表于 2020-7-3 08:19:39