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. s1 ?3 w) S( |8 [/ ~标题（title）：International Futures: Building and Using Global Models
7 y1 X5 [: ^! H( |/ g" @( T: q8 B国际期货：建立和使用全球模型
$ O; F+ g3 T5 ]6 e, _5 l% [作者（author）：Barry Hughes ?! `# c! s0 G: j4 r& k6 y
出版社（publisher）：Academic Press! |3 m; A' i" J: h/ L
大小（size）：13 MB (1#897#42 bytes)% o2 d( e' O7 d- a
格式（extension）：pdf
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) U4 i; L- o. U* M6 gInternational Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system.$ U/ X5 r$ `9 u3 f6 M, I
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Finally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years.
: S" y/ b% a% ]& R7 K2 hTable of contents :
) F' x0 W: i& z( [Cover......Page 1
/ w9 B7 j" K* E7 P. y! i/ P& TINTERNATIONAL
. E6 S( t3 O' }FUTURES9 K. w6 v6 D& @1 l
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Building and Using Global Models......Page ##Copyright......Page 4
6 v7 M% t, o9 `: c7 ~+ T) uPrologue......Page 5) S4 L+ M2 T( V: j
Glossary I: Model Acronyms and Abbreviations......Page 70 `- Y8 ?# W) r+ I* B
Glossary II: Modeling-Related Concepts, Tools, and Databases......Page 9# i6 s# }0 J% e6 I9 p5 a
Glossary III: Organizations, Projects, and Teams......Page 11! V$ k- Z+ E8 t; [: G u( J, n( k! E
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Introduction......Page 1##What Path Are We On?......Page 14) w9 E- _" k8 s w. O* G
What Leverage Do We Have?......Page 153 x5 l) g) \# ^/ d) ~& B& @
How Do We Address Uncertainty?......Page 168 A+ \7 P/ {# O) d* \4 j# H8 _- \& B' x: [
The Plan of the Volume......Page 17
5 C" X0 _- N, F0 y( N$ ~3 M' p0 uReferences......Page 182 w- _+ v/ E( k8 P: q. b* p8 G4 ]
Identifying Concepts......Page 19
" }, f3 \7 g5 K7 ^# [" K0 H' ^Recognizing Systems......Page 20* `# |/ d0 [( k1 z
Assembling Data......Page 2##Understanding Past and Ongoing Global Transitions......Page 26
+ W* J5 u+ v) pMaking Fundamental Choices Concerning Model Type......Page 28
( w4 E- s( O6 d6 h1 E$ s# n# \2 {6 TBuilding Algorithms......Page ##Making Choices at the Equation Level......Page ##Using Statistical Fit as a Guide, Not a Straitjacket......Page ##Considering Both Distal and Proximate Drivers......Page ##Looking for and Understanding Leverage Points......Page ##Using the Model and Exploring Uncertainty......Page ##Exploring Transformative Uncertainty......Page ##Verification, Validation, and Accreditation......Page ##Addressing Errors of Omission and Commission......Page 420 C1 y1 y- }, L, ] V% @$ g$ F) o' O
References......Page 4##Foundational Work......Page 45
t8 u3 u9 K8 A0 R8 DThe First Wave......Page 464 \5 l0 y6 {' {* ?. O- s9 M/ U! Z
New Capabilities......Page 47
1 Z% g$ P8 ^- G- ^/ P1 VIntegrated Assessment Models......Page 49" k3 |+ F* i( T( i
Comparative Use of IAMs......Page 50( U2 s' @& @6 Q( \) G
Comparative Assessments of IAM Structures......Page 51
+ q8 k# Z% v( f& [) XStatus of and Challenges for Global Model Building and Use......Page 59
: W) b* @5 Y( a! ^Coverage and Connections......Page 60
( h# M+ c/ }) l" wTransparency and Openness......Page 61
% F9 h7 z" a. [$ d' mChallenges in Model Use: Dealing With Uncertainty......Page 62
+ b( X1 v' o/ J- H' y' ~Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)......Page 6##Other Integrative Analytical Initiatives......Page 65
1 Z4 t4 m) i- x Q5 P3 \$ `References......Page 66
2 f% X& d8 q4 gStructural Overview of IFs......Page 7##Data Analysis......Page 781 C& Y1 g% I0 o3 B' s' p: G1 s1 \
Creation of Scenarios......Page 79
z V1 R' j) A; X$ dUsers and Uses of IFs......Page 80' J" G9 a: y+ f. I
Looking Ahead......Page 82: P0 Q$ D- r8 Q4 f# ]
References......Page 8##Population......Page 88
7 v" _! J2 `# h0 m% |Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 89
/ V5 [! n% [ g; }Demographic Transitions......Page 91+ S2 B4 J: i: Q9 D6 }" A+ }5 a
Modeling Population, Especially Fertility......Page 9##Population in IFs......Page 96" T$ S- H* {' Y
Fertility Rate......Page 975 {5 l. Q5 R8 W# V
Mortality and Migration......Page 100
6 o# F A9 q* X i2 W& ^; C6 BLimitations......Page 1018 o8 h' h9 F1 L; C1 L
Comparative Scenarios......Page 102# V2 X" U# f& K! Z# Z
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 1040 B5 Y A0 B$ H) R. F! F9 e
Health Transitions......Page 105
4 @) A. i) ?. ?# F, U. LModeling Health, Especially Mortality......Page 106
, a9 P% Z9 P5 Y5 g5 ^6 {Health in IFs......Page 1087 k; g6 B/ E& C e
The Distal Foundation......Page 109# K" a: g" _+ Z- y* [. m" }
The Risk Assessment Overlay......Page 1127 S2 C3 Y( o, w
Combining the Distal and Proximate Risk Drivers......Page 114' g6 e# [, }; P( i% u2 Q, Q8 C' ]
Other Important Health Variables......Page 115
$ ?- [) S0 l/ N& Z- m1 |/ Y4 v* O) FComparative Scenarios......Page 116
! p" ^: r p! [ P0 r9 B& zEducation......Page 117
, |9 o4 q" ]7 b, oConcepts, Structures, and Data......Page 118
5 q) J3 Y) f. `& r3 X1 FEducation Transitions......Page 120
4 j% V2 M* U7 ~0 z% W1 Q/ \* aModeling Education Progression......Page 122
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发表于 2020-7-3 08:19:39