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H0 w" w5 ~. a: z- U1 ^标题（title）：International Futures: Building and Using Global Models. Y) ]% P- l% j
国际期货：建立和使用全球模型
& S- z' L1 A3 e- x作者（author）：Barry Hughes
2 S, n3 g. c* j/ f出版社（publisher）：Academic Press
: @% w1 F% y7 N8 d2 }大小（size）：13 MB (1#897#42 bytes)
: m) }/ P+ R/ U8 U6 z格式（extension）：pdf
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International Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system.
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Finally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years.
7 _) _9 J4 V' h5 K/ c& G# y4 bTable of contents : 6 l5 W! Q7 s3 M \! b" ^/ p
Cover......Page 1
' n# |( r7 p5 t" { x" B0 yINTERNATIONAL
2 Y/ @! S9 Y- R% ZFUTURES! f6 k7 r' Z/ @1 Z2 Y* w
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Building and Using Global Models......Page ##Copyright......Page 4 }; m5 N2 h- @
Prologue......Page 5" G6 X2 Z' e/ |8 P
Glossary I: Model Acronyms and Abbreviations......Page 7
$ Y9 w) G( u# S0 tGlossary II: Modeling-Related Concepts, Tools, and Databases......Page 9/ }7 S2 H- z4 q4 V) U9 S
Glossary III: Organizations, Projects, and Teams......Page 11( K# l2 I& l8 L3 E0 \( ^9 q0 W& L
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1 t) N8 F* d+ Q/ JIntroduction......Page 1##What Path Are We On?......Page 14
) \4 @1 C. [9 o$ N7 \, T9 PWhat Leverage Do We Have?......Page 15
' ]& X8 [7 _2 @/ j, dHow Do We Address Uncertainty?......Page 16$ q7 S$ l! U1 b O& i
The Plan of the Volume......Page 17
, c$ ` U- i9 e9 q; hReferences......Page 18
]6 U ]5 H% q/ Z9 c1 l% Z% V- |Identifying Concepts......Page 19
2 z/ _5 f* y8 aRecognizing Systems......Page 20
" A: e# ^0 d p% f. J4 vAssembling Data......Page 2##Understanding Past and Ongoing Global Transitions......Page 26' ]9 `" u' X8 V6 I1 M
Making Fundamental Choices Concerning Model Type......Page 28( t' _2 v9 e: D+ Q# F# i
Building Algorithms......Page ##Making Choices at the Equation Level......Page ##Using Statistical Fit as a Guide, Not a Straitjacket......Page ##Considering Both Distal and Proximate Drivers......Page ##Looking for and Understanding Leverage Points......Page ##Using the Model and Exploring Uncertainty......Page ##Exploring Transformative Uncertainty......Page ##Verification, Validation, and Accreditation......Page ##Addressing Errors of Omission and Commission......Page 42; T1 A1 X3 A0 _$ g
References......Page 4##Foundational Work......Page 45
0 u0 X# m# }8 H# r! Y4 o3 X- \The First Wave......Page 468 E$ N+ j$ ^' S2 o- V' E( @' s
New Capabilities......Page 479 E' z" {/ _6 w) L2 M
Integrated Assessment Models......Page 49
# a, j8 u" o: W9 ?Comparative Use of IAMs......Page 50% w9 u) T* c/ C- y. @3 X
Comparative Assessments of IAM Structures......Page 511 Z2 d. Y5 I0 x/ ]
Status of and Challenges for Global Model Building and Use......Page 59
' ]. m, {0 I) HCoverage and Connections......Page 602 y7 [$ a) k8 E$ }$ _* g( y
Transparency and Openness......Page 618 O: H" N1 _: ^' A
Challenges in Model Use: Dealing With Uncertainty......Page 621 G: K! D, a- h! r/ \
Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)......Page 6##Other Integrative Analytical Initiatives......Page 65; y# m; A( Q4 |2 y0 W
References......Page 66) ]) C' ~' L1 d, J0 h5 ~- V
Structural Overview of IFs......Page 7##Data Analysis......Page 78
$ P" [4 D& K% Z) ]8 p! KCreation of Scenarios......Page 79
6 V' e: d5 S6 fUsers and Uses of IFs......Page 80& A0 ^. f0 j0 V# B) T0 ?; d
Looking Ahead......Page 82
+ l4 H& ~9 S, ?0 w K. `5 ]5 U7 u4 `References......Page 8##Population......Page 88
" d8 d. u' z0 P) y( P1 AConcepts, Structures, and Data......Page 89
" P& G. {* ]+ p8 l, q2 O! ~Demographic Transitions......Page 91' B" U+ `- D( o
Modeling Population, Especially Fertility......Page 9##Population in IFs......Page 96
, p! q" J o: }( D+ AFertility Rate......Page 97
" s0 v: M% J' S EMortality and Migration......Page 1001 _/ D( T0 `( n5 J4 J* C) C
Limitations......Page 101
1 L a$ Z: q( i# r# lComparative Scenarios......Page 1028 y- A% ]" V2 | X7 N. u/ M
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 104! J1 \# X& Y; D# L ^- Z
Health Transitions......Page 105
; X, S4 P" J7 l6 O8 BModeling Health, Especially Mortality......Page 106
& }( z9 M: M0 u( d3 D' o1 @& }Health in IFs......Page 108' |3 h# G' w% M1 s7 `3 L+ w
The Distal Foundation......Page 1099 S% a" Z- O* p5 H. X( b& _" p$ v
The Risk Assessment Overlay......Page 112
h6 {% C; r5 [$ ~) P+ G* ZCombining the Distal and Proximate Risk Drivers......Page 114
3 z- u e1 L: dOther Important Health Variables......Page 115
! X, Z3 Q; R* z- Q; H: }" J4 p/ rComparative Scenarios......Page 116' f: c2 G' [( _' Z5 |7 k' j& h
Education......Page 1177 b0 Y9 a: o8 j
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 118( {7 _+ _8 F$ S5 X( @
Education Transitions......Page 120
4 v# M# }) E6 z5 o* JModeling Education Progression......Page 122* j! f. \; f; n% C
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发表于 2020-7-3 08:19:39