简单麦麦! ~9 x' a9 o7 k7 a/ @6 r$ A! S7 N' @
下载链接： http://www.jiandanmaimai.cn/file/0/
9 ~- X7 |1 W6 v+ n/ J; f标题（title）：International Futures: Building and Using Global Models
% Y8 H+ o1 m. W- v国际期货：建立和使用全球模型
, z( f9 L$ v `. g2 ]/ m$ r8 O' p作者（author）：Barry Hughes' R- I+ u4 m0 I1 p6 V. r. b" L" m
出版社（publisher）：Academic Press! |$ x+ U# D( F% Q$ C- n* B5 O
大小（size）：13 MB (1#897#42 bytes)
0 g* d; @$ ~" \: ?* K格式（extension）：pdf
# k" w. J# l4 ?( g8 N注意：如果文件下载解压完成后为无法打开的格式，请修改后缀名为格式对应后缀' O ^$ T( P8 n8 |% H5 ~. M
$ K. c0 B% Z- X
3 ?, H0 ?: M _2 ~7 `& F, X
International Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system.* J* o& R/ F! e6 h5 J- E
- C8 t3 q; X: b
7 U- d1 Y1 [2 t' ~8 |& Q. ]
Finally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years.+ \! _. C+ ]5 y( A3 b
Table of contents : / Q2 F& i7 G$ d" r7 E* {6 i2 W
Cover......Page 1 v8 c# F$ u% m: M
INTERNATIONAL
1 i N4 a* n7 R/ W3 XFUTURES
- |+ x5 R3 ]. x |8 l: L
9 b, T3 ]/ s7 U3 i8 t) V, S; [3 G9 k! }% z
Building and Using Global Models......Page ##Copyright......Page 48 ~2 f: \' T# P. X4 {
Prologue......Page 5
5 w, h4 R/ o1 r# Z% r4 GGlossary I: Model Acronyms and Abbreviations......Page 74 A A& M$ c/ Z+ ^# F$ _
Glossary II: Modeling-Related Concepts, Tools, and Databases......Page 9" F+ K* | Q+ Z o7 p
Glossary III: Organizations, Projects, and Teams......Page 11 S8 q# J5 u% w4 @8 _+ {9 L
1# A m, n8 \4 V
Introduction......Page 1##What Path Are We On?......Page 145 C' c; t* c* S+ g. a N q
What Leverage Do We Have?......Page 15
+ Y5 {( E8 U: n7 Q- |' bHow Do We Address Uncertainty?......Page 16% r6 k% E9 T0 I9 z# V. {
The Plan of the Volume......Page 17
# G' y5 B8 C% A( }% d% C4 f" v0 Z$ ~References......Page 18. V6 g/ m' _. L4 L
Identifying Concepts......Page 19
( o6 k& t8 }" P4 `* A( [Recognizing Systems......Page 20; g4 [ Y9 ?/ R
Assembling Data......Page 2##Understanding Past and Ongoing Global Transitions......Page 268 ^$ L5 x p! X% N, E5 F
Making Fundamental Choices Concerning Model Type......Page 28
! h' H" y) {+ w. `8 h* s) O _3 vBuilding Algorithms......Page ##Making Choices at the Equation Level......Page ##Using Statistical Fit as a Guide, Not a Straitjacket......Page ##Considering Both Distal and Proximate Drivers......Page ##Looking for and Understanding Leverage Points......Page ##Using the Model and Exploring Uncertainty......Page ##Exploring Transformative Uncertainty......Page ##Verification, Validation, and Accreditation......Page ##Addressing Errors of Omission and Commission......Page 42 s6 N* z- r. y0 t
References......Page 4##Foundational Work......Page 45
2 @; Q+ ]; }& b: SThe First Wave......Page 46
2 O/ j- N ^$ e4 INew Capabilities......Page 47' \% |+ c5 }' E% {+ T! H% W
Integrated Assessment Models......Page 49
/ y, ]2 u( u; SComparative Use of IAMs......Page 50
6 U6 d6 |4 k+ p8 J3 bComparative Assessments of IAM Structures......Page 514 y. C7 ^; J6 M/ u" p2 U8 V. X, @
Status of and Challenges for Global Model Building and Use......Page 59
7 l r) _* _% Z6 L* P! `/ ZCoverage and Connections......Page 60' w5 V: f: o2 T
Transparency and Openness......Page 613 k& B# Z: H5 \/ h
Challenges in Model Use: Dealing With Uncertainty......Page 62: s- k+ y! ], y2 B+ d
Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)......Page 6##Other Integrative Analytical Initiatives......Page 65- D7 ]1 c/ }" h& b: j9 b
References......Page 660 P* i( A; B( q7 J4 {! l/ H h
Structural Overview of IFs......Page 7##Data Analysis......Page 78; P4 j: h; i5 ]5 l5 x; a- k9 `
Creation of Scenarios......Page 79
2 |1 h9 y' `( d0 N) YUsers and Uses of IFs......Page 80) `' m- d0 v9 _. i+ r
Looking Ahead......Page 82
% p9 E3 ^ e) F4 p2 W$ AReferences......Page 8##Population......Page 885 _" \. L: ]/ z, q1 B
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 896 l0 g- [/ a- J: r
Demographic Transitions......Page 91
+ k- N4 X9 B! F4 D8 }- v# kModeling Population, Especially Fertility......Page 9##Population in IFs......Page 96
/ M6 G. O3 O* {8 \9 M( XFertility Rate......Page 976 o) ?: O8 n1 ?8 K# ]- W
Mortality and Migration......Page 1000 T, T* Q' K" k0 L( G
Limitations......Page 101
: J* f- ?8 v: U, S# k8 f! t, F- JComparative Scenarios......Page 1027 b& _2 p" n0 |9 q Z& G
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 104
! i) k: I" H8 O. \9 BHealth Transitions......Page 105
" z$ w, v' f- C$ p% c8 _Modeling Health, Especially Mortality......Page 106
8 W* J$ R8 S) p1 J8 kHealth in IFs......Page 108
0 G$ V2 b' ?$ UThe Distal Foundation......Page 109% X9 M- @" T3 b% H- k
The Risk Assessment Overlay......Page 112
& M, w& p9 m( b; F6 CCombining the Distal and Proximate Risk Drivers......Page 1145 u/ x, d& z ?: u- J' ^# `2 C
Other Important Health Variables......Page 115
) W; j9 |6 m6 oComparative Scenarios......Page 1162 j X1 ?2 `2 i! o3 z% R, q1 Q. n
Education......Page 1173 W: u% U$ M8 w) N! q l9 |2 |
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 118
9 O; C6 r, V1 r8 w& ]$ `6 ~Education Transitions......Page 120/ @- e+ s! J& n% ?+ ?2 [
Modeling Education Progression......Page 1229 o: F2 q; l6 j: C! K: R
E |
|手机版|Archiver|
( 桂ICP备12001440号-3 )|网站地图
发表于 2020-7-3 08:19:39