简单麦麦" ]# x! \4 n7 u- K
下载链接： http://www.jiandanmaimai.cn/file/0/
( K# d j0 g: C- [; k2 o6 }* _标题（title）：International Futures: Building and Using Global Models( W& [' f3 p% a1 i. m( l4 C
国际期货：建立和使用全球模型( b9 w: P- x v; z
作者（author）：Barry Hughes) n4 d" @# H4 K5 l/ h
出版社（publisher）：Academic Press
/ v9 k2 ], H' X# w7 L: q* u大小（size）：13 MB (1#897#42 bytes)
% P6 y5 `* w& w: H6 n格式（extension）：pdf7 O+ s7 |6 O6 w2 R
注意：如果文件下载解压完成后为无法打开的格式，请修改后缀名为格式对应后缀! p& _; f) K7 I% [! S, Q
$ I$ y H& k* O2 B
; c1 Y& G* e5 B4 p. K6 k& MInternational Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system.
( y+ B, n* q, v) k( V+ O7 H1 R( J H/ P7 t I6 j( c2 h
# h& M0 o5 q0 s3 p, S/ U3 k! f Y
Finally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years.
$ d5 b5 ?" e8 r8 W9 w' \" _Table of contents :
7 f6 ~% |* y4 Z4 D! T4 CCover......Page 1- e7 A( @1 J n* V$ u9 D
INTERNATIONAL2 m5 p3 n7 V4 f5 Y7 T) _" ]/ X
FUTURES
2 j! U2 b" X$ o$ s
# _% ^- a( F% C5 n& a+ k+ C' [: S! D1 b. W5 F6 ]( N9 q
Building and Using Global Models......Page ##Copyright......Page 4
# ^% T) M- X x7 ]Prologue......Page 5( z) w7 i; b; ?. Y5 Q- @. d& f
Glossary I: Model Acronyms and Abbreviations......Page 7
* @( B( L$ T" w5 DGlossary II: Modeling-Related Concepts, Tools, and Databases......Page 9
9 b: I1 {: W) j, Q3 l+ dGlossary III: Organizations, Projects, and Teams......Page 11
& @! ?- ?) F/ w8 e$ t2 q. Y) O; N% w2 E1) O6 g2 G# |1 D9 r
Introduction......Page 1##What Path Are We On?......Page 14
" Q$ U# M% s- jWhat Leverage Do We Have?......Page 15
% q/ p9 p1 W5 X4 H% HHow Do We Address Uncertainty?......Page 16
9 I/ a. A) I5 \9 _) C! R) o( y; `The Plan of the Volume......Page 171 G" [4 g5 m: ?+ R; g
References......Page 18
; w9 s; Z: J6 h! ?Identifying Concepts......Page 19) b2 }7 W* a' z/ @) Y; f
Recognizing Systems......Page 20! }; n G9 X3 G" s' R7 ]4 r
Assembling Data......Page 2##Understanding Past and Ongoing Global Transitions......Page 26
: n7 O! U; [5 s" |0 _Making Fundamental Choices Concerning Model Type......Page 28
5 C/ p8 W& \/ w) CBuilding Algorithms......Page ##Making Choices at the Equation Level......Page ##Using Statistical Fit as a Guide, Not a Straitjacket......Page ##Considering Both Distal and Proximate Drivers......Page ##Looking for and Understanding Leverage Points......Page ##Using the Model and Exploring Uncertainty......Page ##Exploring Transformative Uncertainty......Page ##Verification, Validation, and Accreditation......Page ##Addressing Errors of Omission and Commission......Page 429 m1 V. H% Q h2 P, t: s, K
References......Page 4##Foundational Work......Page 45
6 A: F- F0 ]. `7 e" DThe First Wave......Page 46! y6 l' R- j" @
New Capabilities......Page 47
0 q' ?3 \* a9 L) V. N" V( MIntegrated Assessment Models......Page 495 p0 m8 w5 m# q
Comparative Use of IAMs......Page 50# y# S, Z/ c* I- Q
Comparative Assessments of IAM Structures......Page 51
4 c; {1 a# r0 M" k" VStatus of and Challenges for Global Model Building and Use......Page 59
* E3 I, s- Q; a0 w( a1 @Coverage and Connections......Page 60
8 J" W8 N Z2 wTransparency and Openness......Page 61
. Q. K2 ?8 Y) ?. P; ?- pChallenges in Model Use: Dealing With Uncertainty......Page 62
+ t$ C# \! B5 t! ~1 ~- n! u8 gShared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)......Page 6##Other Integrative Analytical Initiatives......Page 65
- p, i( W1 P. e3 }, \References......Page 66. S3 V, c. E& Y6 C& i
Structural Overview of IFs......Page 7##Data Analysis......Page 78
3 K& m2 e/ w8 M$ WCreation of Scenarios......Page 79
- Q2 [/ |: K" f" O B# p" l# YUsers and Uses of IFs......Page 80
, t# V2 C1 \9 ^Looking Ahead......Page 82* n# p4 D! B, f2 L) J3 g! D# W
References......Page 8##Population......Page 88
8 K6 w* \4 ~$ a. D! Z' cConcepts, Structures, and Data......Page 89
2 N x+ G- k# U' r6 ^0 X/ bDemographic Transitions......Page 91
; x" T9 d, b' ?- zModeling Population, Especially Fertility......Page 9##Population in IFs......Page 96/ O2 W4 G- t1 p
Fertility Rate......Page 979 L M- Y( Y5 V C2 v& s
Mortality and Migration......Page 100$ `& A" D' n9 ?! A
Limitations......Page 1016 j8 r1 [9 o( K
Comparative Scenarios......Page 102: y9 l4 P% \ y, z4 v* s$ x
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 104
1 K7 j6 N+ V; S" @: cHealth Transitions......Page 1058 ]# Q* p* }8 ~ U: M
Modeling Health, Especially Mortality......Page 106
c' D1 E: s4 S' Z" R. l6 _! {Health in IFs......Page 108
& U- D- ?1 ^4 A8 ?: ~The Distal Foundation......Page 109
0 k+ A& P6 U' S# fThe Risk Assessment Overlay......Page 112' m% M5 P0 I8 c# Q! J3 t% U
Combining the Distal and Proximate Risk Drivers......Page 114
2 p7 k& i d$ I& `Other Important Health Variables......Page 115. j$ @9 Q3 J0 _/ U8 E/ e
Comparative Scenarios......Page 1164 T: ~" K$ D! a% K* b
Education......Page 117& c# t" n. h, q( T
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 1189 T3 U' I1 i9 M) ]) U& k. x( r, ?
Education Transitions......Page 120
2 L( I/ V- i) U% E) v( g, i# UModeling Education Progression......Page 1222 ?) I4 R" w2 r9 ^# L; ?" c
E |
|手机版|Archiver|
( 桂ICP备12001440号-3 )|网站地图
发表于 2020-7-3 08:19:39