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标题（title）：International Futures: Building and Using Global Models- D% _$ C: g% z. D2 n+ d
国际期货：建立和使用全球模型
# b# U) @) B. D! l, w作者（author）：Barry Hughes" ^% Q( m) m4 o& K+ G* {
出版社（publisher）：Academic Press
( _& Z1 Z8 Q [3 o大小（size）：13 MB (1#897#42 bytes)
' ?! \4 }! X/ M0 M. c# l格式（extension）：pdf
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International Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system.2 ~% P$ r6 D# P
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7 F: Q6 f; L% y' h- ]9 [8 B5 lFinally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years.
. c+ g9 s% F2 }; u8 I" j- rTable of contents : 5 L: T, v( r6 A7 A- T* |
Cover......Page 1
, K+ s: @; e# M/ L5 tINTERNATIONAL% y5 T5 b+ W0 p- f" a
FUTURES- b; L9 [1 I( e q
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Building and Using Global Models......Page ##Copyright......Page 4: i. _$ p" } j `
Prologue......Page 5
8 g% W' H% a: `3 y' T, E7 }Glossary I: Model Acronyms and Abbreviations......Page 7 p! z, @2 E$ _; n3 v6 C" b3 ^
Glossary II: Modeling-Related Concepts, Tools, and Databases......Page 9# L: K' I1 e1 C2 z5 L4 j
Glossary III: Organizations, Projects, and Teams......Page 116 ^# O7 d) D k- L5 H
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3 T3 Z8 M: H$ m! ~% C9 Z" iIntroduction......Page 1##What Path Are We On?......Page 14
; i' b# x0 T7 [2 X+ ^1 ?# [, AWhat Leverage Do We Have?......Page 15
1 S0 U; D+ w' E: h) B2 l; pHow Do We Address Uncertainty?......Page 16
6 c9 R, C6 m9 H. u1 x( T6 rThe Plan of the Volume......Page 174 J6 X* f c1 g
References......Page 18
* X' |/ ^& f; R3 D2 ?" D7 A: fIdentifying Concepts......Page 196 {' c: N; t2 i a3 \
Recognizing Systems......Page 20
0 h! ~5 m/ X2 S' D6 a. pAssembling Data......Page 2##Understanding Past and Ongoing Global Transitions......Page 266 M" z1 {! L! K" U7 D' _
Making Fundamental Choices Concerning Model Type......Page 28
& j1 C/ j7 d; w) s& _% ~! FBuilding Algorithms......Page ##Making Choices at the Equation Level......Page ##Using Statistical Fit as a Guide, Not a Straitjacket......Page ##Considering Both Distal and Proximate Drivers......Page ##Looking for and Understanding Leverage Points......Page ##Using the Model and Exploring Uncertainty......Page ##Exploring Transformative Uncertainty......Page ##Verification, Validation, and Accreditation......Page ##Addressing Errors of Omission and Commission......Page 42
) @/ k8 G% c) A, G5 q; Q" oReferences......Page 4##Foundational Work......Page 45' w' y% f. R* N' s. ^& M
The First Wave......Page 46
" `2 t/ I, j3 A, F0 cNew Capabilities......Page 47
& @% E2 G. O7 ~0 M: ]1 |( D+ OIntegrated Assessment Models......Page 49- B$ w) W5 d0 D* z/ t! f1 E
Comparative Use of IAMs......Page 50
* h% Y( J" l1 L2 pComparative Assessments of IAM Structures......Page 51
& P* f7 F! P1 g1 g4 J9 X. kStatus of and Challenges for Global Model Building and Use......Page 59
8 V7 |; } U9 i1 N/ n$ `/ qCoverage and Connections......Page 60
- r( E. X8 d3 N2 }4 Y" eTransparency and Openness......Page 61
* ^" O) _. d1 @% M3 @Challenges in Model Use: Dealing With Uncertainty......Page 62
* W. T% S$ u: T4 J0 F+ ]. ]Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)......Page 6##Other Integrative Analytical Initiatives......Page 65
6 Y( r1 w, A V' WReferences......Page 665 r! C5 [. U6 I% K
Structural Overview of IFs......Page 7##Data Analysis......Page 78
) R$ U- }2 n- w/ wCreation of Scenarios......Page 79( a$ c( c8 d! q7 [9 i
Users and Uses of IFs......Page 80* e! o5 y9 A. X- A$ [: O
Looking Ahead......Page 82
7 `8 N6 {9 O, }/ N+ CReferences......Page 8##Population......Page 885 a7 L0 R8 l' F$ v
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 89, ~& @$ B3 |% K6 ~ W
Demographic Transitions......Page 91; _3 S; M6 U2 d
Modeling Population, Especially Fertility......Page 9##Population in IFs......Page 96# L, y; W' \5 b! r4 K4 [, X
Fertility Rate......Page 97: v* o8 l! {. |5 w3 l
Mortality and Migration......Page 100
5 e5 d8 F; y% b2 k* Z) I3 dLimitations......Page 101/ U/ n; }. w9 a: I* R5 g$ ~; d9 j4 N
Comparative Scenarios......Page 102% J9 X) y5 f: g) c( ~( x v
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 104
3 @& v% q+ _* ]* I/ h5 T0 KHealth Transitions......Page 105
# W/ n/ G! m& y# m: o2 {% t; O/ EModeling Health, Especially Mortality......Page 106+ ]" N" l1 I3 H1 b
Health in IFs......Page 108
9 s9 l. J& M/ M" x6 g: f3 fThe Distal Foundation......Page 109
- o1 h W" r& x: j0 K& ZThe Risk Assessment Overlay......Page 112* b0 p7 ~) f: Q4 [9 O5 X& @1 J: Y
Combining the Distal and Proximate Risk Drivers......Page 114, v) P3 J6 C j3 e: Z/ L
Other Important Health Variables......Page 1150 q7 T. H( z1 p& z' n! V0 M
Comparative Scenarios......Page 116
( Z! y# D/ j" T% q6 YEducation......Page 117
+ u5 `* n% I |Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 118
, `$ }* p6 h1 a1 ?! YEducation Transitions......Page 120' z, _4 K$ U$ ~- _' I! w- X
Modeling Education Progression......Page 122- q4 y% c# @7 r5 }
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发表于 2020-7-3 08:19:39