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标题（title）：International Futures: Building and Using Global Models( t& P; {& O* ]/ V( d
国际期货：建立和使用全球模型0 V8 m' K2 Q! m# y- u
作者（author）：Barry Hughes/ V# B1 e. c! C1 _5 v4 X
出版社（publisher）：Academic Press
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w# b- `& t; K( e+ g v k, W- sInternational Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system.7 `* e0 z! W6 g' e; b
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Finally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years.. i! ^4 s5 S( C. b
Table of contents : 0 U8 V: _+ q$ D% a) K H" E8 w
Cover......Page 1
9 a) X8 F7 ~$ S) }$ e5 kINTERNATIONAL. w& q8 L1 b; w* j. G. s2 G) g0 m
FUTURES' ~% j, Q8 S# n+ U0 k+ a
1 Y* j' @# p( a0 ~' l) T! h. S
9 b/ p2 v' ^1 w" e+ sBuilding and Using Global Models......Page ##Copyright......Page 44 {: a" [3 T5 G* F8 H; g
Prologue......Page 5
& a' ]0 Z3 o9 g; ?Glossary I: Model Acronyms and Abbreviations......Page 7* J& [# V; I9 n+ x& i$ F
Glossary II: Modeling-Related Concepts, Tools, and Databases......Page 9
; P# o% c) X z" U8 @: _. ~Glossary III: Organizations, Projects, and Teams......Page 11
9 |' t) |! K( M7 k L1
8 v/ Q+ o: I# Y X8 h @1 M( J$ \Introduction......Page 1##What Path Are We On?......Page 14
+ R6 w5 l: D5 U8 i' T$ IWhat Leverage Do We Have?......Page 15
$ N/ d# N! @: Z0 N- l+ oHow Do We Address Uncertainty?......Page 16
6 l8 |$ f3 j Y5 S* xThe Plan of the Volume......Page 17
0 e. \3 w1 v Z% F, e; OReferences......Page 18
6 t3 h4 x6 t* z% hIdentifying Concepts......Page 19
3 P! k* k( O3 Y2 URecognizing Systems......Page 20( o& _) p; h3 }% c6 E# ?# n
Assembling Data......Page 2##Understanding Past and Ongoing Global Transitions......Page 26' M2 K$ c9 L' R; `% |: S, ^
Making Fundamental Choices Concerning Model Type......Page 28% j5 e( N h6 f: x4 Q" l/ F. C
Building Algorithms......Page ##Making Choices at the Equation Level......Page ##Using Statistical Fit as a Guide, Not a Straitjacket......Page ##Considering Both Distal and Proximate Drivers......Page ##Looking for and Understanding Leverage Points......Page ##Using the Model and Exploring Uncertainty......Page ##Exploring Transformative Uncertainty......Page ##Verification, Validation, and Accreditation......Page ##Addressing Errors of Omission and Commission......Page 42
2 U' M2 N! B; d/ PReferences......Page 4##Foundational Work......Page 45
3 U' F6 X% R. @, @' E1 C# J/ t. tThe First Wave......Page 467 s# ~" u( d6 [6 q# ~8 L7 v2 K: c
New Capabilities......Page 47
# T$ i1 b7 O8 z$ H" t* {8 QIntegrated Assessment Models......Page 49
! \+ d" z# y2 g7 P5 H" A3 r ^Comparative Use of IAMs......Page 50
! R, T4 A) V5 |) x, A; [Comparative Assessments of IAM Structures......Page 51* P4 U7 G9 }4 N% ]' H* L9 K
Status of and Challenges for Global Model Building and Use......Page 59
/ {6 k' _2 Y2 r kCoverage and Connections......Page 60 z; `$ o( C/ G) G% D, z
Transparency and Openness......Page 61
+ l' }9 _. Z/ V: F7 WChallenges in Model Use: Dealing With Uncertainty......Page 626 k+ s1 H3 n r) z( e5 Q( e: _ K
Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)......Page 6##Other Integrative Analytical Initiatives......Page 65
+ j& j, n* H6 }* oReferences......Page 66
9 r% B6 N: b) E" K+ h! N4 HStructural Overview of IFs......Page 7##Data Analysis......Page 78) u p3 U4 i4 K4 S8 R
Creation of Scenarios......Page 79
Z) r3 b& L5 T2 _% _Users and Uses of IFs......Page 804 M8 N. m8 L f! k! }8 r" _
Looking Ahead......Page 82. m5 `6 p! C) g- E, ^+ |4 w
References......Page 8##Population......Page 88
! g, g- e& @8 Y" }, j+ tConcepts, Structures, and Data......Page 89
6 a. d2 g: ^& f5 }' iDemographic Transitions......Page 91/ j; D$ h# c' i' F+ B1 r0 }" S
Modeling Population, Especially Fertility......Page 9##Population in IFs......Page 960 F, g& J$ s1 D
Fertility Rate......Page 97
. o. C# |" \8 Q6 r# N9 ?Mortality and Migration......Page 100
2 P) X4 c4 b7 ?$ w4 t/ vLimitations......Page 1012 F8 O% P4 ?1 f- q+ ^. x
Comparative Scenarios......Page 102( ^! f* S# G3 }- S! b
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 104
, a' U% @+ J$ S* m8 `Health Transitions......Page 105. r4 _8 [; ^+ k* Z% i+ y" }
Modeling Health, Especially Mortality......Page 1063 E: V* C3 ^1 L: Q7 X' \
Health in IFs......Page 1082 Q8 s( n# T: i# D$ O
The Distal Foundation......Page 109
7 `2 q" |& j3 r2 JThe Risk Assessment Overlay......Page 112
0 D- Q G- k. Z6 `; oCombining the Distal and Proximate Risk Drivers......Page 114
. F9 c0 F3 G! f0 U( rOther Important Health Variables......Page 115
! J- F$ K! i/ WComparative Scenarios......Page 116
5 [1 j9 y5 q, d* i1 d+ S, k$ sEducation......Page 117* B8 `' m5 @$ B9 a6 t
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 118
) c) W' Z+ J& Z$ f" j' f$ GEducation Transitions......Page 120+ x. _; u* S' i) G. t7 J0 ]. B/ H
Modeling Education Progression......Page 122& l" C. m& w, c9 f O
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发表于 2020-7-3 08:19:39