简单麦麦
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9 u; N3 F7 v- Y0 I标题（title）：International Futures: Building and Using Global Models
# c9 Z) R$ P8 O2 a* x2 t% ^% _% I国际期货：建立和使用全球模型
, |+ E1 |4 |1 O/ ^& y; P' P作者（author）：Barry Hughes* ~3 [- {- c3 P! a2 D
出版社（publisher）：Academic Press
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6 p3 m9 [6 [4 _6 tInternational Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system.
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Finally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years." k: O8 V" w9 R5 W x
Table of contents : & W9 _! _5 E. h5 T
Cover......Page 1
; m" v% A) F5 A: M+ f1 g: |$ p" oINTERNATIONAL% w$ U. @. K% |0 r. H- ~8 \6 x' V
FUTURES2 y/ M2 O. e }( X& d7 a3 J8 l7 E
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8 {! c& o1 O2 J! }( J$ m: Z ?7 k9 EBuilding and Using Global Models......Page ##Copyright......Page 4
M/ L/ R- d: ^5 B- {Prologue......Page 5
/ w2 B+ `& O/ n) w& UGlossary I: Model Acronyms and Abbreviations......Page 75 T( b6 |$ q' {' z
Glossary II: Modeling-Related Concepts, Tools, and Databases......Page 9
0 u" a$ b' z* o" _Glossary III: Organizations, Projects, and Teams......Page 11
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Introduction......Page 1##What Path Are We On?......Page 14
: k: O/ m, @) ^7 p2 _ c2 D5 g7 LWhat Leverage Do We Have?......Page 15
' x4 q; ^- S$ u: S) n1 mHow Do We Address Uncertainty?......Page 16
T$ k* I; F. b \0 s k: \The Plan of the Volume......Page 17
9 C- w7 S, C" B6 FReferences......Page 18
" X1 o- ?# k* v. f7 iIdentifying Concepts......Page 19
1 v4 f, a+ Q' |& j$ XRecognizing Systems......Page 200 R2 |0 v1 J+ _
Assembling Data......Page 2##Understanding Past and Ongoing Global Transitions......Page 26 T. J# j _( e' X$ I0 E7 t( {
Making Fundamental Choices Concerning Model Type......Page 286 g8 o# B" l1 e
Building Algorithms......Page ##Making Choices at the Equation Level......Page ##Using Statistical Fit as a Guide, Not a Straitjacket......Page ##Considering Both Distal and Proximate Drivers......Page ##Looking for and Understanding Leverage Points......Page ##Using the Model and Exploring Uncertainty......Page ##Exploring Transformative Uncertainty......Page ##Verification, Validation, and Accreditation......Page ##Addressing Errors of Omission and Commission......Page 42
6 a @/ ~( X+ \2 Y4 KReferences......Page 4##Foundational Work......Page 45! G9 a: ^. \& t
The First Wave......Page 468 G' d) t/ ^ r" e, b, ^
New Capabilities......Page 479 g4 O& x U9 F
Integrated Assessment Models......Page 49
2 t) | C4 k5 ~% w. \* EComparative Use of IAMs......Page 50
V3 a' u. ~( z% vComparative Assessments of IAM Structures......Page 51) I+ V' Y6 g9 d5 h3 b, e
Status of and Challenges for Global Model Building and Use......Page 59
E, N7 J, a- c2 X3 l4 E+ L5 M7 \Coverage and Connections......Page 604 ?6 t" W% u; U! s+ q
Transparency and Openness......Page 617 i C' s) m% W
Challenges in Model Use: Dealing With Uncertainty......Page 62
' N7 g, I8 k1 w) YShared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)......Page 6##Other Integrative Analytical Initiatives......Page 65$ d$ U9 _( t1 q# }' z: F) p. V
References......Page 66
/ \1 G: P A# s' {8 e+ yStructural Overview of IFs......Page 7##Data Analysis......Page 78: x( X( F$ T5 _$ B$ V
Creation of Scenarios......Page 79
* R. \# [% i+ I zUsers and Uses of IFs......Page 80
2 l1 F, \% r; s; I) g0 c) bLooking Ahead......Page 82; V) P+ {, A: l0 V* k" A( b! Z
References......Page 8##Population......Page 88
: u; M1 `9 X% S. r3 lConcepts, Structures, and Data......Page 89
2 s* Q6 \6 a- ^1 j; C# @& ^, ?1 pDemographic Transitions......Page 91
4 }1 Y& `$ O6 y- F' E7 a) v MModeling Population, Especially Fertility......Page 9##Population in IFs......Page 96
: i, U, B4 o2 U: F# H3 b+ |Fertility Rate......Page 97
% e y" I4 ^" T% O0 O' ZMortality and Migration......Page 100
2 ~# u' e* h; [' z% j& SLimitations......Page 101
6 Y) y. Z* g0 |" U+ C2 G8 }( TComparative Scenarios......Page 102
0 U/ K. i- E: N5 k1 t7 [Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 1044 @9 {" \: i! Z
Health Transitions......Page 105
+ k5 ?6 T! j0 _# w3 [* O; mModeling Health, Especially Mortality......Page 106
4 Z* f2 r8 c1 s! Q7 V+ I# ^ \6 HHealth in IFs......Page 108( N1 f' G* H) \7 W* |
The Distal Foundation......Page 109
5 \! R( N; b/ p# }( hThe Risk Assessment Overlay......Page 112
1 \2 L. T" X: _' u) @) m jCombining the Distal and Proximate Risk Drivers......Page 1141 f6 q3 x' A* ~% U' b
Other Important Health Variables......Page 115
6 [# R7 N# k6 k% rComparative Scenarios......Page 116( }( `, o# c) p- `9 L
Education......Page 117
t2 j" ?8 q6 v& HConcepts, Structures, and Data......Page 118
" X6 \. z: D) o) b* n, Z* _Education Transitions......Page 120. P% B: L( P; ~4 ~6 F( n0 y
Modeling Education Progression......Page 122
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发表于 2020-7-3 08:19:39