简单麦麦
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7 J3 Z, e @; B* ^- L/ z标题（title）：International Futures: Building and Using Global Models
5 b# ^( {. Y3 E% U国际期货：建立和使用全球模型2 b6 [& {5 J4 n% n/ n9 S) v6 F9 n
作者（author）：Barry Hughes
0 \0 u. B3 p' J出版社（publisher）：Academic Press0 f& ]& _1 ?- N. w& j( ^4 r* t* J
大小（size）：13 MB (1#897#42 bytes)9 T" ?6 C2 d( q" T
格式（extension）：pdf
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1 q) o* w+ Z: b4 {, yInternational Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system.0 I0 {8 K+ o# e3 N( X" U0 O. D. O
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Finally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years.
+ k( [3 n( w [, y9 f( J; XTable of contents :
( g" i- s ^6 e. \" w" v; SCover......Page 1) s" p0 k; F/ s" c7 f
INTERNATIONAL
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# W$ a' I- T, `Building and Using Global Models......Page ##Copyright......Page 4
6 K7 `8 Y: @8 k, y% m9 u! uPrologue......Page 5) X1 J+ Z5 q( m X7 C' W. q
Glossary I: Model Acronyms and Abbreviations......Page 7
( Z; [# r) y* jGlossary II: Modeling-Related Concepts, Tools, and Databases......Page 9% s; q( @( {" G& t% H& [! S/ Q x' i( c
Glossary III: Organizations, Projects, and Teams......Page 11
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Introduction......Page 1##What Path Are We On?......Page 14
( x* n1 e' N- h' E+ k5 Q1 N1 z0 ZWhat Leverage Do We Have?......Page 15, S6 I0 z: `0 R/ D3 U; x
How Do We Address Uncertainty?......Page 16
. i0 S( E; D: q" R, x+ fThe Plan of the Volume......Page 17( g% {/ u* `5 w% @$ x& j
References......Page 189 o, w. g# P! }1 p$ @/ `4 t K: `
Identifying Concepts......Page 19
b9 n& x6 T! F$ a3 r1 t* @Recognizing Systems......Page 20( K9 w9 o2 p1 o, {2 u( l, N
Assembling Data......Page 2##Understanding Past and Ongoing Global Transitions......Page 26
1 e! f3 M6 k$ K9 ?* e7 rMaking Fundamental Choices Concerning Model Type......Page 28% N+ f/ b; J: p! R* D- j
Building Algorithms......Page ##Making Choices at the Equation Level......Page ##Using Statistical Fit as a Guide, Not a Straitjacket......Page ##Considering Both Distal and Proximate Drivers......Page ##Looking for and Understanding Leverage Points......Page ##Using the Model and Exploring Uncertainty......Page ##Exploring Transformative Uncertainty......Page ##Verification, Validation, and Accreditation......Page ##Addressing Errors of Omission and Commission......Page 42
6 f. c/ K4 ?: k# fReferences......Page 4##Foundational Work......Page 45* B9 S# c4 n# C3 M3 D5 j7 M! I
The First Wave......Page 461 M. b6 D/ g% Q4 j5 d) Z' u
New Capabilities......Page 472 s9 j0 _3 H! s8 y+ C# M
Integrated Assessment Models......Page 49
0 i. N0 n+ y) k8 R LComparative Use of IAMs......Page 50
6 V6 A' R$ M+ DComparative Assessments of IAM Structures......Page 51. ^; E6 P! ?) g# Z2 @2 u4 \
Status of and Challenges for Global Model Building and Use......Page 598 h0 L8 H9 g" v% W' R% A/ [3 y
Coverage and Connections......Page 60) z# P) E, z( C
Transparency and Openness......Page 61
; k9 I9 Y* g% [5 IChallenges in Model Use: Dealing With Uncertainty......Page 62
5 d- U' d* ^; ]/ c _! n0 FShared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)......Page 6##Other Integrative Analytical Initiatives......Page 656 Q7 a" y0 F1 s4 I7 ]* z6 `
References......Page 66! a0 E1 X5 M' k9 M" @6 @# K
Structural Overview of IFs......Page 7##Data Analysis......Page 78
+ a2 B1 B* h8 O/ p7 |Creation of Scenarios......Page 790 X% O+ C& u& ]# x/ u6 D
Users and Uses of IFs......Page 80
5 `+ Q" K% g0 [, ]8 t' YLooking Ahead......Page 823 l8 c2 l* z# t( @( W. i4 @
References......Page 8##Population......Page 88. m& g6 V9 ]* S2 E$ k
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 899 {$ u. W) z; ]; Q) ?6 U9 w; B4 d
Demographic Transitions......Page 91
) K5 ~) o k( L/ Q$ o) K2 ]Modeling Population, Especially Fertility......Page 9##Population in IFs......Page 96! Q. |) |) ~# B# \! v6 d- i5 i
Fertility Rate......Page 97$ i) _- H" ~& U7 }, o T
Mortality and Migration......Page 100+ n$ u; w" m# t
Limitations......Page 1015 f; |: r7 `3 M# f0 i
Comparative Scenarios......Page 1023 n" O2 l+ m7 c4 K2 M! ^
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 104
" ~0 b- j- L' BHealth Transitions......Page 105! @6 D/ H% X& W+ b2 P: U( G
Modeling Health, Especially Mortality......Page 1069 r' d2 K3 b: _- Z4 X9 m; F7 R
Health in IFs......Page 108 ~2 }7 k; B* t# N) A: [
The Distal Foundation......Page 109
9 Z9 Y' k" D2 [" k" |* oThe Risk Assessment Overlay......Page 112, G8 E) W- c, {. K7 ^
Combining the Distal and Proximate Risk Drivers......Page 114' H* t% M% Y6 r% M4 @ n8 ]
Other Important Health Variables......Page 115+ w/ r9 n3 {$ m. R
Comparative Scenarios......Page 116
6 @6 ?/ ?: o& B! h- bEducation......Page 117
+ [9 ?( y2 h7 p! \+ u$ C( _Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 118% }; o. H: D% f
Education Transitions......Page 120
& N& p( c: H6 W& wModeling Education Progression......Page 122
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发表于 2020-7-3 08:19:39