简单麦麦
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标题（title）：International Futures: Building and Using Global Models
( J6 t1 z% H# [3 I5 ~9 w国际期货：建立和使用全球模型
. U3 c7 W* J6 I* v7 F- _6 l) @作者（author）：Barry Hughes4 Q9 L/ }( o- O0 Q( T8 o5 X3 g
出版社（publisher）：Academic Press
8 {. q; ~; ]; a大小（size）：13 MB (1#897#42 bytes)6 X4 ?0 P, P7 P+ x, M5 d7 y, j8 x
格式（extension）：pdf
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International Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system.
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1 U( L+ Z7 z7 c0 w# I6 AFinally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years.9 l9 k7 H+ R3 H% O; m( z& `& c5 a
Table of contents : 6 L) H6 z! g# K+ F; J; o. J
Cover......Page 1- ?& |7 F+ A' z$ d0 C- T* a
INTERNATIONAL
+ A5 T# V- |9 Z; m- W% q! |6 HFUTURES. ~5 \5 h% _8 h$ E, l. r
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Building and Using Global Models......Page ##Copyright......Page 4( h2 L: p' R# f5 [* I
Prologue......Page 5
) Z3 [: h+ \ X4 k' O; ~3 xGlossary I: Model Acronyms and Abbreviations......Page 7 i9 G9 y4 W% u
Glossary II: Modeling-Related Concepts, Tools, and Databases......Page 9+ b9 V0 h: _* J( Q/ y6 _7 X
Glossary III: Organizations, Projects, and Teams......Page 114 D d% X# g6 k
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+ G4 J+ p& W$ O9 @* c y4 ~6 c vIntroduction......Page 1##What Path Are We On?......Page 14
2 ?& r3 \( _1 f4 h5 s' g/ uWhat Leverage Do We Have?......Page 15
# \: h3 }- P' b, ^8 YHow Do We Address Uncertainty?......Page 16' ]) B3 W* V7 K! L3 M4 J& ?
The Plan of the Volume......Page 17, n, y& ^% z6 ^7 K' g5 R( R
References......Page 18
" S" x: h: F% N: HIdentifying Concepts......Page 19) V6 X; a. }, D* \' X b
Recognizing Systems......Page 204 y/ ?: y+ T, h1 f3 C
Assembling Data......Page 2##Understanding Past and Ongoing Global Transitions......Page 263 w) X, z& O7 Y! I
Making Fundamental Choices Concerning Model Type......Page 28
7 R( Y/ c) J: c/ Q5 xBuilding Algorithms......Page ##Making Choices at the Equation Level......Page ##Using Statistical Fit as a Guide, Not a Straitjacket......Page ##Considering Both Distal and Proximate Drivers......Page ##Looking for and Understanding Leverage Points......Page ##Using the Model and Exploring Uncertainty......Page ##Exploring Transformative Uncertainty......Page ##Verification, Validation, and Accreditation......Page ##Addressing Errors of Omission and Commission......Page 423 O' Y( F$ @, T7 s. P2 I7 i% o# [
References......Page 4##Foundational Work......Page 45
/ y: P/ X' W/ h* T( e; hThe First Wave......Page 46
0 J# n5 t) G0 y+ N' m( CNew Capabilities......Page 473 ?' O! l6 a0 C! ^
Integrated Assessment Models......Page 49
% o8 ]2 M& q; d a- SComparative Use of IAMs......Page 50
' R+ W. q- I# W$ A" m; kComparative Assessments of IAM Structures......Page 51
7 t4 u4 e! Z0 k' F. ^* ZStatus of and Challenges for Global Model Building and Use......Page 59, L7 o6 k0 L+ T) q8 ^1 |: O6 P
Coverage and Connections......Page 60) y$ e3 g# N5 E/ S: Z \% `
Transparency and Openness......Page 610 y& D0 V; \# _6 Y
Challenges in Model Use: Dealing With Uncertainty......Page 624 \8 Y, G% h6 Z
Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)......Page 6##Other Integrative Analytical Initiatives......Page 65- k/ V5 c ^0 t" c" j
References......Page 66. ?' h4 F, J$ s5 l6 r
Structural Overview of IFs......Page 7##Data Analysis......Page 78
( v; v2 F0 J, T7 F& BCreation of Scenarios......Page 79. b* {& i. @- U9 H( _! b# D0 c) s
Users and Uses of IFs......Page 801 n0 @9 o8 K4 T* y& |
Looking Ahead......Page 82, I; ]0 o3 s' D1 I
References......Page 8##Population......Page 881 S% {% p" {0 _+ W; E! W K/ B
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 89; }7 {4 |# X4 g# q) l+ f* d. N0 N
Demographic Transitions......Page 918 R5 ^0 P3 s* t% `$ H% m7 L
Modeling Population, Especially Fertility......Page 9##Population in IFs......Page 96+ _2 O& t. m. b& o! O
Fertility Rate......Page 97
( F5 n8 K Z9 ~. ~% xMortality and Migration......Page 100
" e* Q' {; |6 d( JLimitations......Page 1011 k7 L; u0 F" O3 {
Comparative Scenarios......Page 102
" X: t7 C. L" q& o: \Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 104
2 v& c% M6 R2 |, G8 `. _# bHealth Transitions......Page 105
& G) S7 |5 k% k/ N4 MModeling Health, Especially Mortality......Page 106
' z8 H9 g6 |5 pHealth in IFs......Page 1084 Z" Z' q5 ?! Q/ D( d- D' J
The Distal Foundation......Page 109
! _7 L' V# y4 e# V4 }# W& u: oThe Risk Assessment Overlay......Page 1125 E0 t& z! }5 \6 o# m
Combining the Distal and Proximate Risk Drivers......Page 114 e l% g$ @+ E4 \( Q. S# j: o
Other Important Health Variables......Page 115
4 h0 O- r6 B) ^# o2 AComparative Scenarios......Page 116
9 e1 V: [( H& n9 K VEducation......Page 117! ` R" T' _6 [) k% W3 h; A
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 118" g( ]" V& L7 ?7 ~$ y
Education Transitions......Page 1200 a9 v0 e4 Y+ C" F% h
Modeling Education Progression......Page 122: a/ t# e9 {7 T w
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发表于 2020-7-3 08:19:39