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标题（title）：International Futures: Building and Using Global Models
1 K2 V P( s# r2 ~# W" B国际期货：建立和使用全球模型
[4 ]' V0 i5 D1 V5 y$ g作者（author）：Barry Hughes0 W2 a/ w7 D. Y8 D# p6 T
出版社（publisher）：Academic Press0 [- f% m a6 f. |4 H
大小（size）：13 MB (1#897#42 bytes)# Z$ ~, l1 n: e
格式（extension）：pdf
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" g/ H7 _" j9 {9 u/ ]1 _! }0 Y. BInternational Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system.
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9 Q7 d8 t& U! |) y" |: I: EFinally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years.
! \$ u# {8 A3 o/ XTable of contents :
0 }6 h- D- _& ?9 cCover......Page 1* o: m, A+ P! [. T2 A% ?
INTERNATIONAL
* W. S2 h* A4 E+ N! NFUTURES
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Building and Using Global Models......Page ##Copyright......Page 4
% l+ C; B k# MPrologue......Page 5
. B8 V6 T+ g1 ^8 FGlossary I: Model Acronyms and Abbreviations......Page 75 _) C1 c/ S/ l9 r A" V! i
Glossary II: Modeling-Related Concepts, Tools, and Databases......Page 9
6 ~3 N* a% I+ Z; n9 t& nGlossary III: Organizations, Projects, and Teams......Page 11! y2 V8 V3 W! f/ j$ m K
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) w$ H! i0 v* \+ A7 nIntroduction......Page 1##What Path Are We On?......Page 14 q/ t) f0 b. o) j
What Leverage Do We Have?......Page 15 } H# h+ x0 p* w( O% Q
How Do We Address Uncertainty?......Page 16! ~. J% h2 r# N$ `8 i+ n2 M! i
The Plan of the Volume......Page 17/ @- t2 A$ B: M1 S' W4 [
References......Page 18
7 d K( F7 ^' V& s" O% DIdentifying Concepts......Page 19
# K h& S- d G( DRecognizing Systems......Page 20' r' k# v9 u' c
Assembling Data......Page 2##Understanding Past and Ongoing Global Transitions......Page 265 H4 `$ _& u- F- K# Y0 R
Making Fundamental Choices Concerning Model Type......Page 28
' A) B" U" b4 z h' ?0 VBuilding Algorithms......Page ##Making Choices at the Equation Level......Page ##Using Statistical Fit as a Guide, Not a Straitjacket......Page ##Considering Both Distal and Proximate Drivers......Page ##Looking for and Understanding Leverage Points......Page ##Using the Model and Exploring Uncertainty......Page ##Exploring Transformative Uncertainty......Page ##Verification, Validation, and Accreditation......Page ##Addressing Errors of Omission and Commission......Page 42
3 A. B6 T- q, N0 e; `References......Page 4##Foundational Work......Page 45- I5 k8 Z4 @+ v( x
The First Wave......Page 46
7 d0 [3 Z$ v0 P" V3 V! j! jNew Capabilities......Page 478 W, m& c: ]& [
Integrated Assessment Models......Page 49
( k9 F" S; f1 Y6 vComparative Use of IAMs......Page 50
( c4 {( T6 l' _Comparative Assessments of IAM Structures......Page 51
. ]3 B& G E% p* n- IStatus of and Challenges for Global Model Building and Use......Page 59& P) p/ Z3 L( o6 k
Coverage and Connections......Page 60/ E9 J/ g1 n/ Y9 b- V7 ~; |
Transparency and Openness......Page 61
1 K) f8 L) j$ K2 d+ }9 fChallenges in Model Use: Dealing With Uncertainty......Page 62
& K3 p, ^4 [- t/ X/ xShared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)......Page 6##Other Integrative Analytical Initiatives......Page 65. N. `8 K% i$ o- V( _% h
References......Page 66( b* B. g6 m' G9 m i, |
Structural Overview of IFs......Page 7##Data Analysis......Page 78' S h, ~0 f' p" N
Creation of Scenarios......Page 79
" X8 l9 t5 L6 Y/ ^, }6 L5 P$ q% xUsers and Uses of IFs......Page 80
* u( M( p6 y, f+ ^+ G9 LLooking Ahead......Page 82
1 g3 e Q3 {8 }3 O0 ? r/ C, gReferences......Page 8##Population......Page 888 L$ W, e* i7 M# X0 [
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 89
5 ?: Q& t3 ?+ P: Q) m* j% Z* X7 XDemographic Transitions......Page 910 ~8 m+ e# S8 d( p- G
Modeling Population, Especially Fertility......Page 9##Population in IFs......Page 96" I% Z. I+ C& }" ?; x
Fertility Rate......Page 97
1 O; x5 f; E: ^5 Z( AMortality and Migration......Page 100+ g& w6 I2 K3 k7 \- u3 M8 p& L# X3 r
Limitations......Page 101( Y: m9 l4 r0 _
Comparative Scenarios......Page 102
: g* N5 V0 O# S1 a$ M K) Z) l3 }& \Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 1047 I! q, ?* r6 X7 _8 F3 _+ u
Health Transitions......Page 105
& T4 c+ D+ s$ x& |7 q: cModeling Health, Especially Mortality......Page 106
7 `: ^" k& P8 h: a- X/ _/ Z4 SHealth in IFs......Page 108( t2 B2 l$ _& G9 A& l
The Distal Foundation......Page 109
v- s9 \6 H3 l( p# W: b( m4 e m _) GThe Risk Assessment Overlay......Page 1125 A2 P( J3 M- U( Y& d
Combining the Distal and Proximate Risk Drivers......Page 114
0 \" [+ d1 h2 B# R B. NOther Important Health Variables......Page 115* l. F0 q6 _# [( }. ?
Comparative Scenarios......Page 116
0 R q( n: g9 y# m- B3 H5 b; XEducation......Page 1171 I# B1 E; f. e% x
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 118
0 `3 u2 J9 x4 pEducation Transitions......Page 120
1 T& L9 c; K3 o: T. qModeling Education Progression......Page 122
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发表于 2020-7-3 08:19:39