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$ D5 D% ?5 {( \2 h标题（title）：International Futures: Building and Using Global Models. ^7 c& M" a! K0 S {9 ?
国际期货：建立和使用全球模型* Q W& E) i, Y$ v. A7 Y
作者（author）：Barry Hughes
: L- u0 S! ?& ]# |出版社（publisher）：Academic Press t& `+ K9 J' T" B
大小（size）：13 MB (1#897#42 bytes)
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, r3 z/ P1 \9 a' X" U/ P& EInternational Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system.
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) R0 b9 Q6 \9 h- l: H% h4 HFinally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years.* g6 { ~3 O% |, G. `
Table of contents :
" n9 }' }+ M/ @1 nCover......Page 16 H7 ?% e5 j- p; l7 J3 u3 [
INTERNATIONAL) p# Z! D* @. Z$ A9 M, H5 X
FUTURES+ C! y0 T& k, I R" }& {
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Building and Using Global Models......Page ##Copyright......Page 4
6 ^4 Q3 `/ e6 a4 tPrologue......Page 5: W. P/ q) e* r" {9 i
Glossary I: Model Acronyms and Abbreviations......Page 75 n: r. ?; H, a! J5 v' J
Glossary II: Modeling-Related Concepts, Tools, and Databases......Page 9& @5 }9 b* a3 m7 B- f5 f3 u3 k n2 ]$ n
Glossary III: Organizations, Projects, and Teams......Page 11) q8 ~- ^; s t$ ]5 N
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Introduction......Page 1##What Path Are We On?......Page 14# E9 \+ ]9 Z0 C3 P' i0 ?* _$ r7 Y
What Leverage Do We Have?......Page 15 `' {2 B/ M: a5 A' ?# k
How Do We Address Uncertainty?......Page 16
/ ? r I9 H2 }+ q( h7 D6 O5 TThe Plan of the Volume......Page 17
4 T$ ^4 R+ k; |References......Page 18
% N7 K1 S2 ~& G e7 j! G( M1 e5 vIdentifying Concepts......Page 19
* r+ _5 @7 Z( I) A) ERecognizing Systems......Page 20
5 i/ f0 K: D$ K. l8 e+ }" D7 eAssembling Data......Page 2##Understanding Past and Ongoing Global Transitions......Page 265 ]. @0 G2 g, N9 B
Making Fundamental Choices Concerning Model Type......Page 28
# s0 H( Z) b) E5 S% _( JBuilding Algorithms......Page ##Making Choices at the Equation Level......Page ##Using Statistical Fit as a Guide, Not a Straitjacket......Page ##Considering Both Distal and Proximate Drivers......Page ##Looking for and Understanding Leverage Points......Page ##Using the Model and Exploring Uncertainty......Page ##Exploring Transformative Uncertainty......Page ##Verification, Validation, and Accreditation......Page ##Addressing Errors of Omission and Commission......Page 42( ?- D% O" A) }" B2 ?- X3 z3 t8 A8 R
References......Page 4##Foundational Work......Page 45
' H p t( Z" u2 V. NThe First Wave......Page 46% D7 d) ]- s9 Y% ?1 x& F t0 t
New Capabilities......Page 474 u- H7 _; m9 s5 a5 j
Integrated Assessment Models......Page 494 v# Z. _4 d. A9 S- x
Comparative Use of IAMs......Page 50
* N8 q$ P6 R- S/ XComparative Assessments of IAM Structures......Page 51) ~/ l N& V3 }) y. w& S8 ]
Status of and Challenges for Global Model Building and Use......Page 596 G4 Z% N! J3 Y, n+ x" a# Z9 D
Coverage and Connections......Page 60
% U$ ]7 z8 `7 {' u% t sTransparency and Openness......Page 61+ b" M/ o4 o. Z( d8 U- b
Challenges in Model Use: Dealing With Uncertainty......Page 62" q5 H8 L; V- y
Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)......Page 6##Other Integrative Analytical Initiatives......Page 65
0 S0 w; O7 T" X+ W- a$ dReferences......Page 66+ e8 ?; y; p' ^/ {* Q1 y% I
Structural Overview of IFs......Page 7##Data Analysis......Page 78/ Y" O8 U* \! ]9 O, @
Creation of Scenarios......Page 79# z* w3 B1 `9 l: o2 l
Users and Uses of IFs......Page 80
" \4 K, B" y, Z8 \Looking Ahead......Page 82 F+ Z7 ~3 a' z; D9 t& w4 r
References......Page 8##Population......Page 88
' R# ?2 j; ^% v* {+ x" E7 o9 JConcepts, Structures, and Data......Page 89
0 c) Y. B5 K0 t4 S2 aDemographic Transitions......Page 91
& b+ ^: v( D9 I$ w0 R/ WModeling Population, Especially Fertility......Page 9##Population in IFs......Page 96! Q: a! j3 Y5 t# r. i% Q" `
Fertility Rate......Page 97
[3 _, d* q* u$ s) bMortality and Migration......Page 100; p+ P4 f+ G: S) X7 I
Limitations......Page 101, H9 {5 }& \& h' g
Comparative Scenarios......Page 102( R( o0 U* ?. ?. f
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 104: }. O, r0 a7 J" `6 q7 j7 M2 C+ A
Health Transitions......Page 105- ^# g! B4 G5 @: l3 l$ M" x
Modeling Health, Especially Mortality......Page 1063 e" E; |- Q: P" B U7 g- \4 ~
Health in IFs......Page 108
3 H: S k/ A8 ` z; y1 |The Distal Foundation......Page 109+ T4 }; q9 E& }9 y/ q+ r
The Risk Assessment Overlay......Page 1125 C( P7 a. T( m( ], y" o7 V
Combining the Distal and Proximate Risk Drivers......Page 114
( |# Q/ ]9 U+ @0 c A- ^Other Important Health Variables......Page 115) l+ _4 {* h+ F# T
Comparative Scenarios......Page 1163 X* s3 h) P8 |4 I
Education......Page 1176 K9 ]9 c; o6 i. W0 r
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 118; e5 {, c* N' _, u+ X
Education Transitions......Page 120
& _/ L, T4 j( D+ b- p8 v: M rModeling Education Progression......Page 122 Q% ^8 g% m5 S8 Q
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发表于 2020-7-3 08:19:39