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标题（title）：International Futures: Building and Using Global Models
0 p% S' }% B V% B7 ]国际期货：建立和使用全球模型' s/ Y) V z. G, I+ B
作者（author）：Barry Hughes! i5 r/ Z0 a: H
出版社（publisher）：Academic Press
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) T7 X+ K0 S" r5 ZInternational Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system.
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6 B4 R! J& J0 J( p1 |/ @Finally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years.
5 N4 N, G0 m# C2 \. uTable of contents :
8 |/ f2 P" `- H- P- \Cover......Page 1
5 [1 N* B( b' k) I$ mINTERNATIONAL
" |. L* m" F }# s6 q1 b z7 RFUTURES
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Building and Using Global Models......Page ##Copyright......Page 46 `$ u3 [1 U6 y& m
Prologue......Page 5
8 x; v8 k3 i R/ pGlossary I: Model Acronyms and Abbreviations......Page 7
& U; E. f" G# b* [$ @' V* iGlossary II: Modeling-Related Concepts, Tools, and Databases......Page 9) o% ]# J! K% J% x4 }
Glossary III: Organizations, Projects, and Teams......Page 11
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3 y; ?/ e- s$ TIntroduction......Page 1##What Path Are We On?......Page 141 C* o4 ]" H' M7 t# V: f
What Leverage Do We Have?......Page 15/ I* s. C! Z1 @2 ^8 Y6 o$ u( i; B
How Do We Address Uncertainty?......Page 16
% q S0 T+ R3 CThe Plan of the Volume......Page 17
) Y2 A, ]( p# C0 D! v6 z) o0 ^References......Page 18- B+ E; Y/ {; ]* ~) n x
Identifying Concepts......Page 194 C1 E$ w+ ?$ z4 p1 R
Recognizing Systems......Page 20: R1 V% B7 K- u7 i; k2 `, `
Assembling Data......Page 2##Understanding Past and Ongoing Global Transitions......Page 26- H3 h4 |9 E5 q) v- J" \
Making Fundamental Choices Concerning Model Type......Page 287 A- I" `7 k8 D- U
Building Algorithms......Page ##Making Choices at the Equation Level......Page ##Using Statistical Fit as a Guide, Not a Straitjacket......Page ##Considering Both Distal and Proximate Drivers......Page ##Looking for and Understanding Leverage Points......Page ##Using the Model and Exploring Uncertainty......Page ##Exploring Transformative Uncertainty......Page ##Verification, Validation, and Accreditation......Page ##Addressing Errors of Omission and Commission......Page 42
+ b, w: {4 m+ t1 T$ l6 dReferences......Page 4##Foundational Work......Page 45( H+ x' [2 o& w& ]7 a3 {
The First Wave......Page 460 ?. {7 D; N- a$ t" Z
New Capabilities......Page 472 y7 K5 o: c$ E E
Integrated Assessment Models......Page 499 x B) y2 j% A+ K" t( X& F4 t& N
Comparative Use of IAMs......Page 50% w8 X: T0 y1 z2 Y. g
Comparative Assessments of IAM Structures......Page 51
, V$ E$ {1 r8 n4 [/ NStatus of and Challenges for Global Model Building and Use......Page 59) c/ a! A8 P5 s, X8 t9 r& T& R
Coverage and Connections......Page 60- t; l @9 a' E+ A% ~7 Z
Transparency and Openness......Page 61 @# l. k; W* {) P* }
Challenges in Model Use: Dealing With Uncertainty......Page 62
$ z/ T; b( e- |4 m) L8 c: uShared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)......Page 6##Other Integrative Analytical Initiatives......Page 65
1 m( j' l) v9 D0 Z2 cReferences......Page 660 t/ Q% ^9 w/ I I8 w' ?0 d
Structural Overview of IFs......Page 7##Data Analysis......Page 78
1 ]0 _ ^/ B- l9 R" _5 r' X$ F6 E% X fCreation of Scenarios......Page 79' e5 N$ T. M0 N( H! g$ t# A
Users and Uses of IFs......Page 802 e2 @' C! \/ Q9 U! v5 _
Looking Ahead......Page 82
3 o( Q6 e `- V4 u2 X* W8 kReferences......Page 8##Population......Page 88
4 ]( b. m4 B9 P O; }Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 897 Y+ s6 O2 k9 z+ d7 a
Demographic Transitions......Page 91; X' p; E: }: L# y
Modeling Population, Especially Fertility......Page 9##Population in IFs......Page 961 X+ Y1 U2 D; k, c; V) ]
Fertility Rate......Page 972 I7 Q" Z: }7 \8 ^
Mortality and Migration......Page 100
; N3 z$ q. }; D6 O4 R' Y1 tLimitations......Page 1016 X7 `/ }! o2 {/ Z( \( u$ r
Comparative Scenarios......Page 102
" Q0 _5 b$ c& R7 H7 n4 |% _Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 104( w5 O3 @. R/ } C
Health Transitions......Page 105
1 L3 z5 N, z- m9 ?" }5 v3 vModeling Health, Especially Mortality......Page 106# @. F6 U2 _9 m! i
Health in IFs......Page 108
- y; P1 q$ T9 I* n( {The Distal Foundation......Page 109
7 T7 ?7 j8 j$ [; ~: m. aThe Risk Assessment Overlay......Page 1127 S2 O# G4 D% |9 L, w9 T
Combining the Distal and Proximate Risk Drivers......Page 114
3 U( ?) e8 @8 R4 b/ i: A7 eOther Important Health Variables......Page 115
, R. U, K0 Z8 ]# qComparative Scenarios......Page 116& V& A- p1 S/ T( I- M( K
Education......Page 117
6 s/ R$ J- ~$ X1 s* KConcepts, Structures, and Data......Page 118
9 B* n2 _: V4 Z( \: w0 R# y- HEducation Transitions......Page 120
; ?% r3 H3 E; z# M6 V L1 KModeling Education Progression......Page 122 w6 t) n# ~& K6 s- m, X/ Y
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发表于 2020-7-3 08:19:39