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7 |3 y! T5 ?2 {3 d标题（title）：International Futures: Building and Using Global Models
- d$ w( Y; i4 B- o+ a国际期货：建立和使用全球模型
6 x+ L9 W1 m. a. Z* [5 D0 T0 r作者（author）：Barry Hughes' w) T$ E( F6 r, b; ~) q! h
出版社（publisher）：Academic Press2 l, C* G) t' ]# m. e1 I
大小（size）：13 MB (1#897#42 bytes)4 p" l1 e7 ?1 J
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International Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system.0 H* b4 g' ]& j" {$ n
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Finally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years.- J7 j. R9 A; v7 l6 }' P8 R4 ^" r
Table of contents : 6 z) P% U3 \2 z
Cover......Page 1$ C n1 d+ O9 {0 q
INTERNATIONAL" r& ~+ X; h2 y$ Z3 G: Z
FUTURES8 ]4 y3 j% u1 v0 ?' U6 E
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* R6 @, `8 b2 zBuilding and Using Global Models......Page ##Copyright......Page 4
+ c0 Y2 j8 [3 X( U6 `6 A# M6 pPrologue......Page 5. b, r* B: A; L8 ~, A
Glossary I: Model Acronyms and Abbreviations......Page 7
* o! C" }6 O2 TGlossary II: Modeling-Related Concepts, Tools, and Databases......Page 9
0 X" a3 @; M' U. B- N X( ?Glossary III: Organizations, Projects, and Teams......Page 11+ \! |! l7 E( z/ u- x9 }0 E
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T- {" }8 j+ i+ k( LIntroduction......Page 1##What Path Are We On?......Page 14
7 O4 \/ {$ W; g2 N+ I( fWhat Leverage Do We Have?......Page 15
: B5 x$ K& v5 I6 _6 GHow Do We Address Uncertainty?......Page 16( F" i5 i/ N/ }8 r' h4 u u
The Plan of the Volume......Page 179 F( p7 S2 _, ~" m1 W
References......Page 18% I7 C0 K- T2 i9 g$ h% b
Identifying Concepts......Page 19' {" c# o. N, q9 j" U7 [% m0 S0 k
Recognizing Systems......Page 20; _: c3 F# L) t! B) O4 }7 I
Assembling Data......Page 2##Understanding Past and Ongoing Global Transitions......Page 26, J2 F, s- g" _1 e
Making Fundamental Choices Concerning Model Type......Page 283 Y) y& L( I; j- G' X) g
Building Algorithms......Page ##Making Choices at the Equation Level......Page ##Using Statistical Fit as a Guide, Not a Straitjacket......Page ##Considering Both Distal and Proximate Drivers......Page ##Looking for and Understanding Leverage Points......Page ##Using the Model and Exploring Uncertainty......Page ##Exploring Transformative Uncertainty......Page ##Verification, Validation, and Accreditation......Page ##Addressing Errors of Omission and Commission......Page 42. v8 |; T( C5 ^! ] h
References......Page 4##Foundational Work......Page 45
1 ^9 c2 {, W+ T6 Q6 B& B2 a0 ~/ B- QThe First Wave......Page 46& W0 Y- F" t! `
New Capabilities......Page 47
, {6 y3 ~( y: z' |, N4 y# S! wIntegrated Assessment Models......Page 49
- R" O6 d8 O2 V, NComparative Use of IAMs......Page 50
. Z1 e X0 I: ]- cComparative Assessments of IAM Structures......Page 51) H/ W( c3 F+ T& v9 Q$ X
Status of and Challenges for Global Model Building and Use......Page 59% g4 ~6 n5 N" v
Coverage and Connections......Page 60
1 N! n- m4 m- ?; v; w0 NTransparency and Openness......Page 61
2 @* `3 `0 ], H$ k: i: W4 k0 EChallenges in Model Use: Dealing With Uncertainty......Page 624 K- O) B8 e- A1 B% z
Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)......Page 6##Other Integrative Analytical Initiatives......Page 65
, E7 ^7 ?. g2 D+ gReferences......Page 66& S( p- F8 P: T3 h+ @0 M9 b6 {0 [( m
Structural Overview of IFs......Page 7##Data Analysis......Page 78
* L$ k; H1 E9 I8 c# @, rCreation of Scenarios......Page 79
# ^$ ^% |3 e8 _* QUsers and Uses of IFs......Page 80
+ f, g$ A2 h; f B% wLooking Ahead......Page 826 N( B9 M" k8 M
References......Page 8##Population......Page 88
' S4 Z# K% ~7 gConcepts, Structures, and Data......Page 89
) I1 m ]! S& p+ H3 _( x, TDemographic Transitions......Page 91* j% e# l+ T1 ?2 o7 Z L
Modeling Population, Especially Fertility......Page 9##Population in IFs......Page 96' D% D r$ ]) T9 f
Fertility Rate......Page 97
* x3 A v4 G% l+ d JMortality and Migration......Page 1008 p* u# |6 ]2 x U0 {6 k
Limitations......Page 101
$ j5 w6 h2 y; u* k% qComparative Scenarios......Page 102
/ j3 J4 v' w: i, {Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 104/ N8 ?+ T r$ w& i
Health Transitions......Page 1054 y4 j. O3 \' t% F# k2 R6 `) x
Modeling Health, Especially Mortality......Page 1067 n( m7 X8 k" }+ g7 M1 J" `
Health in IFs......Page 108$ W, ]1 ~. D7 j9 V4 J9 e, O2 Q
The Distal Foundation......Page 109; z! J o: _' l- E
The Risk Assessment Overlay......Page 112
1 s6 T) q" J; V+ t2 QCombining the Distal and Proximate Risk Drivers......Page 114! O% m6 o# q* w
Other Important Health Variables......Page 115
6 a) {' S' A5 G$ ^7 }; YComparative Scenarios......Page 116
, y" r7 Y& N1 F: f BEducation......Page 1179 f6 L# d9 A2 b4 {, i! b2 }
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 1182 B& \$ R: |. H+ N/ `& H; {
Education Transitions......Page 120
2 X+ T v, ]5 W, u `: UModeling Education Progression......Page 1223 |$ q- z$ c. \* B! N
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发表于 2020-7-3 08:19:39