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标题（title）：International Futures: Building and Using Global Models
% x% F$ l1 F0 d; r/ \4 E国际期货：建立和使用全球模型& m! T/ u& v" R8 j' d( o
作者（author）：Barry Hughes
1 r$ a. v# z0 H/ T/ U) Y出版社（publisher）：Academic Press
2 V. l8 i% a: i/ P( g5 [; \: U大小（size）：13 MB (1#897#42 bytes)+ x* X+ M4 J# @5 a& j; n. N+ l
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: U% _3 G( V3 z+ r1 {' I* L* aInternational Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system. z0 k% \: x$ J) S5 L" R a. {& w
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4 H& Q4 `9 m3 h) h( c# ? b; M! QFinally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years.
# G% f; Q, L& |3 @1 @Table of contents : ' I9 l4 Q. a0 k% I& ^
Cover......Page 10 Y B* i7 s0 ?( q1 H. T
INTERNATIONAL
7 g i$ K$ C6 tFUTURES, F0 I( A" j; q3 }; i/ a5 B3 S( D, D
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% V/ t% n& _# o" I- d$ ^Building and Using Global Models......Page ##Copyright......Page 40 y; P- V0 w X$ B9 I3 D
Prologue......Page 5
+ {5 e6 A; v- Q3 w3 v. R' yGlossary I: Model Acronyms and Abbreviations......Page 7
3 Z- {7 f) b4 X$ s9 i3 CGlossary II: Modeling-Related Concepts, Tools, and Databases......Page 9
6 ]! i9 @( s+ R, y" r: nGlossary III: Organizations, Projects, and Teams......Page 114 A4 n* N m7 m; S7 s
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2 E" ]) ?4 m1 S1 ~/ OIntroduction......Page 1##What Path Are We On?......Page 14
- P$ _+ s% @# r- f' yWhat Leverage Do We Have?......Page 15
5 Z3 q3 ]' V7 x9 MHow Do We Address Uncertainty?......Page 167 W4 r: L& O" b4 O
The Plan of the Volume......Page 17
1 I; O+ n4 ^* J3 y- t# d- XReferences......Page 18
! @3 X' B# h8 d" ^Identifying Concepts......Page 19
. v" X' o) O1 GRecognizing Systems......Page 20# r3 e& O$ T# d" [- h% X
Assembling Data......Page 2##Understanding Past and Ongoing Global Transitions......Page 26# v) \/ U9 [# C! V
Making Fundamental Choices Concerning Model Type......Page 28+ O! ~9 F6 d' u3 o
Building Algorithms......Page ##Making Choices at the Equation Level......Page ##Using Statistical Fit as a Guide, Not a Straitjacket......Page ##Considering Both Distal and Proximate Drivers......Page ##Looking for and Understanding Leverage Points......Page ##Using the Model and Exploring Uncertainty......Page ##Exploring Transformative Uncertainty......Page ##Verification, Validation, and Accreditation......Page ##Addressing Errors of Omission and Commission......Page 42
. m7 Y, y) L9 s% s+ }# Q/ N( SReferences......Page 4##Foundational Work......Page 45. a! K3 N o: q3 a6 Y3 o
The First Wave......Page 460 f0 E/ \8 Y4 u& A# q
New Capabilities......Page 47( j- I- |& L7 y' X9 `" C
Integrated Assessment Models......Page 496 S2 |% ?' B+ y+ |/ D& ]2 q
Comparative Use of IAMs......Page 50
; I# u0 v1 ^ |. N, _Comparative Assessments of IAM Structures......Page 51
% Z/ |3 q4 I5 a) k) s$ lStatus of and Challenges for Global Model Building and Use......Page 59) O! O; y6 k u/ p1 O& _0 p3 y
Coverage and Connections......Page 60
+ h X$ x& T6 y) B: ^2 STransparency and Openness......Page 61" _9 {8 a3 w3 O) f" m2 y0 r0 T$ _
Challenges in Model Use: Dealing With Uncertainty......Page 62
( G8 o# J2 `$ SShared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)......Page 6##Other Integrative Analytical Initiatives......Page 658 m2 ]! e @5 w
References......Page 66
- d, x: a: K! P! h$ uStructural Overview of IFs......Page 7##Data Analysis......Page 78 {9 \7 ~9 A6 a: z, T4 A! \& `5 x& u
Creation of Scenarios......Page 79
g$ Q$ K8 x( |$ K3 W# G$ ]Users and Uses of IFs......Page 80
- s) A9 c% Z) S/ d# R, `5 wLooking Ahead......Page 82, R; d/ G3 F$ y- } l0 m" o( G
References......Page 8##Population......Page 88 A. U- {' U1 e; k M
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 89+ a5 u" |# I+ e3 Y& B+ h% r
Demographic Transitions......Page 91
( l% l9 {, a# N SModeling Population, Especially Fertility......Page 9##Population in IFs......Page 96
L3 ~/ f3 Y7 ^7 W; tFertility Rate......Page 970 C# _* j, J# m' r! T& [+ A* ^2 e
Mortality and Migration......Page 100: E" b9 O* \+ Z
Limitations......Page 1017 M$ t" j2 L# j( o
Comparative Scenarios......Page 102
0 A% z- j8 e/ W8 J5 M+ j* ?* a# m+ @8 `Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 104
8 D- I: {1 T# ~0 N9 ~0 B( x6 IHealth Transitions......Page 1056 T) r* ^4 }# A+ b9 O, n S
Modeling Health, Especially Mortality......Page 1064 R& ]( h5 U |1 l8 S6 {- ^( |9 M, g
Health in IFs......Page 108
+ X& r v) G0 K+ a* UThe Distal Foundation......Page 109- b: }8 @4 L/ P$ J3 |( ~
The Risk Assessment Overlay......Page 112
+ G5 k7 n- y/ `0 MCombining the Distal and Proximate Risk Drivers......Page 114
2 J# b7 C" X9 pOther Important Health Variables......Page 115
8 S7 t8 w1 q) y; UComparative Scenarios......Page 116
) z1 u2 _4 ]- T1 _$ r$ z" \: [1 S7 fEducation......Page 117
; k* T8 E$ V$ F$ A$ x# ]4 WConcepts, Structures, and Data......Page 118* F+ t1 k0 q- R) C
Education Transitions......Page 1208 B' J: f1 s1 X H+ g( c
Modeling Education Progression......Page 122* V0 D4 W& l8 |
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发表于 2020-7-3 08:19:39