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0 q2 k7 c# K" `" ^6 [7 r) f' f标题（title）：International Futures: Building and Using Global Models
+ ]6 }8 d* Y6 H% ?; f' ?% I国际期货：建立和使用全球模型0 ?5 X- D2 H. h
作者（author）：Barry Hughes
j& Q% ?5 _+ m2 K9 R0 n# E出版社（publisher）：Academic Press
' w: P0 q8 k E% c大小（size）：13 MB (1#897#42 bytes)
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International Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system.
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Finally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years.
. M" X' V$ ^3 ?6 u6 t$ V$ s$ {, DTable of contents :
. j* \ M: A2 {, f0 nCover......Page 1( u! Y) D& R# C. |" }; m" X! ~& q
INTERNATIONAL
?) A) f, @* W9 w3 ]: c+ k8 pFUTURES- w! x5 ~+ h% o3 Q
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Building and Using Global Models......Page ##Copyright......Page 47 B' t+ E' @1 |3 ^& F% O
Prologue......Page 5' t- a* F8 m, R
Glossary I: Model Acronyms and Abbreviations......Page 7
- l& U1 N3 i! y- s- R5 {* l7 ?Glossary II: Modeling-Related Concepts, Tools, and Databases......Page 9
4 [$ z6 V* O* K& E0 i! NGlossary III: Organizations, Projects, and Teams......Page 11
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& v0 O4 F k8 ?7 UIntroduction......Page 1##What Path Are We On?......Page 14
?* V8 P7 A" c+ c& h/ B. rWhat Leverage Do We Have?......Page 15
9 r0 m5 n% J" G% l) `$ P p; hHow Do We Address Uncertainty?......Page 16
: l+ R6 b. k# J3 I* L7 g) eThe Plan of the Volume......Page 17
+ U& m0 ~( b: u% |9 PReferences......Page 18
* E6 H s( Y. R( _( t& [Identifying Concepts......Page 19
: O% T K' I7 }* K8 \9 u- \Recognizing Systems......Page 20
1 ^3 v, v1 h# ^1 VAssembling Data......Page 2##Understanding Past and Ongoing Global Transitions......Page 268 w5 p2 @8 ~9 G0 M M
Making Fundamental Choices Concerning Model Type......Page 280 p1 n: I8 M6 q. Q
Building Algorithms......Page ##Making Choices at the Equation Level......Page ##Using Statistical Fit as a Guide, Not a Straitjacket......Page ##Considering Both Distal and Proximate Drivers......Page ##Looking for and Understanding Leverage Points......Page ##Using the Model and Exploring Uncertainty......Page ##Exploring Transformative Uncertainty......Page ##Verification, Validation, and Accreditation......Page ##Addressing Errors of Omission and Commission......Page 42$ P( k0 Y, s7 g `3 z$ i
References......Page 4##Foundational Work......Page 45
[) K* L3 I3 M7 b% i/ ` NThe First Wave......Page 46) d3 E; d/ h& z* p, z' r) D
New Capabilities......Page 477 T6 u; D( J2 ?6 i3 S
Integrated Assessment Models......Page 49
. s6 n3 y# ^$ AComparative Use of IAMs......Page 501 ]- o8 O- ]& _4 ~; a
Comparative Assessments of IAM Structures......Page 51
' H4 o4 a$ k" N+ R" B# bStatus of and Challenges for Global Model Building and Use......Page 590 t1 O" j( e; h n: ?
Coverage and Connections......Page 60! L p% h4 l9 i) v/ L! `; V7 v, C
Transparency and Openness......Page 610 {4 j l& p7 X5 H
Challenges in Model Use: Dealing With Uncertainty......Page 62
4 ]) {- _' F; D f5 a3 XShared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)......Page 6##Other Integrative Analytical Initiatives......Page 65
6 G2 P: D1 z) ^3 f- ^References......Page 66
7 F5 G' S* _3 ~6 [Structural Overview of IFs......Page 7##Data Analysis......Page 78) g+ S& b' @ A- T7 D; e$ ~+ l
Creation of Scenarios......Page 79
" R( s( [+ [, ~1 j+ ]1 PUsers and Uses of IFs......Page 80
% _) a2 R+ ~0 k2 \$ A: l* T0 BLooking Ahead......Page 82
( b& f; ~) M: A( Y, n" dReferences......Page 8##Population......Page 88! L9 q( B [4 `2 H
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 89
2 g$ \: n ]% A ZDemographic Transitions......Page 91
" o4 c5 d+ K4 z% zModeling Population, Especially Fertility......Page 9##Population in IFs......Page 96
8 ^! T6 J& t$ t) T6 ~( u `1 nFertility Rate......Page 97
) O4 e6 j/ _$ [- R2 S7 m# [2 KMortality and Migration......Page 1008 y& j8 l. G1 M. J
Limitations......Page 101
( X5 s, s* X: E8 e" VComparative Scenarios......Page 102
4 U* V3 `% Y OConcepts, Structures, and Data......Page 104% z1 p- h) i9 P) }) x6 G
Health Transitions......Page 105+ U& W! _3 P: ?" @# S! I& y- c5 `0 @, g
Modeling Health, Especially Mortality......Page 106
# i* c, k% i' g- IHealth in IFs......Page 108
! Z% Z. l" J$ @' M* |: s, jThe Distal Foundation......Page 109( |, s& [& M$ e- y$ K
The Risk Assessment Overlay......Page 112; w3 R2 R: S4 |6 Z0 g
Combining the Distal and Proximate Risk Drivers......Page 114
b! _3 Y- {% m$ M- IOther Important Health Variables......Page 1155 d# a$ v. P3 U; ?; u
Comparative Scenarios......Page 116' w1 o/ o2 u7 J# z
Education......Page 117
$ e- `, q6 [4 f4 u, F! F7 MConcepts, Structures, and Data......Page 118; _* \3 \, [9 E$ h0 g3 r
Education Transitions......Page 120 V9 r# {+ d( [' y: L
Modeling Education Progression......Page 122
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发表于 2020-7-3 08:19:39