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标题（title）：International Futures: Building and Using Global Models
) {5 v8 X. r t8 }国际期货：建立和使用全球模型! H) ^% X# k9 r2 B/ h6 W
作者（author）：Barry Hughes6 n+ t \6 I3 l1 V) `
出版社（publisher）：Academic Press
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5 D, z& L$ `+ ^- |% RInternational Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system.
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Finally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years.
3 X j& l% o m* W! o4 Q. eTable of contents :
' ?, }- N0 d4 ^& {" FCover......Page 1
+ \2 h2 J4 m0 u/ v. ?INTERNATIONAL
$ V; i! W) _" O8 E! ZFUTURES
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Building and Using Global Models......Page ##Copyright......Page 4$ ` K8 h$ }5 V$ R+ M7 M' C
Prologue......Page 5; I- J' x% n6 \) m \+ G
Glossary I: Model Acronyms and Abbreviations......Page 7
: i3 r# L. Q8 j2 n) I2 p0 vGlossary II: Modeling-Related Concepts, Tools, and Databases......Page 9
8 E" o' g: P2 I6 ^; bGlossary III: Organizations, Projects, and Teams......Page 11; c7 a d m5 N4 U: \
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Introduction......Page 1##What Path Are We On?......Page 145 L) ^( N" ~' \2 M* w" r
What Leverage Do We Have?......Page 15$ ^$ K7 I+ b* D1 O* l' d
How Do We Address Uncertainty?......Page 16; i3 D p P3 t1 t* q9 z
The Plan of the Volume......Page 17. |$ ?. ^! Y7 ]3 F7 e
References......Page 180 o0 O, j" a8 V' r/ _# p
Identifying Concepts......Page 19( Y1 s+ Z5 A/ [5 R3 f
Recognizing Systems......Page 20
, P1 o$ V g# N" \: ^. R# ^Assembling Data......Page 2##Understanding Past and Ongoing Global Transitions......Page 261 _4 Y! }; a' M( M7 l
Making Fundamental Choices Concerning Model Type......Page 28$ @1 l# c7 Q1 L: d6 g- E. Z
Building Algorithms......Page ##Making Choices at the Equation Level......Page ##Using Statistical Fit as a Guide, Not a Straitjacket......Page ##Considering Both Distal and Proximate Drivers......Page ##Looking for and Understanding Leverage Points......Page ##Using the Model and Exploring Uncertainty......Page ##Exploring Transformative Uncertainty......Page ##Verification, Validation, and Accreditation......Page ##Addressing Errors of Omission and Commission......Page 42
+ b9 Y* n( k2 X0 s6 |5 p5 X, qReferences......Page 4##Foundational Work......Page 45
- q8 z* Q; `& y4 P/ q1 v; A, SThe First Wave......Page 461 r' [3 V0 w5 @, h! P
New Capabilities......Page 47
! {) c. t4 e* X( ]% U7 r" E6 PIntegrated Assessment Models......Page 49- e; m- K$ q6 }; S* o3 c2 n
Comparative Use of IAMs......Page 502 K$ C" t$ y8 v( c& Q# A
Comparative Assessments of IAM Structures......Page 51- x3 ~$ C% x* C4 d- `: f
Status of and Challenges for Global Model Building and Use......Page 59
" V( D x: A% {# X* iCoverage and Connections......Page 60
v: c7 T2 V7 q$ _' {1 WTransparency and Openness......Page 61
; k/ b; N6 c. bChallenges in Model Use: Dealing With Uncertainty......Page 626 ?* D# o5 D5 W, E
Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)......Page 6##Other Integrative Analytical Initiatives......Page 65$ V4 v, X6 d% k/ B9 p9 S
References......Page 661 R, D; f3 b3 Q
Structural Overview of IFs......Page 7##Data Analysis......Page 787 N- l& [; f7 I: J! ^/ p
Creation of Scenarios......Page 79! H5 T3 e: ?8 A# w, @
Users and Uses of IFs......Page 80
; w" U I' ]) X) O" tLooking Ahead......Page 827 |% {8 P2 t# `
References......Page 8##Population......Page 88& ?9 t: B/ D4 C7 h( n/ P) b( B* E* }
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 89/ @$ }: j6 h: a( I e7 b& G2 h. L
Demographic Transitions......Page 910 W2 g$ c" m# E y+ h
Modeling Population, Especially Fertility......Page 9##Population in IFs......Page 960 M( t+ h' ?3 D3 S+ h
Fertility Rate......Page 97
, Z: k1 |$ h; Z# z3 dMortality and Migration......Page 100- ~5 I' H2 p. J+ T, R, y
Limitations......Page 101* J" _& O' j' W/ e3 B' n
Comparative Scenarios......Page 1027 b( v! O- b# |& x; X
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 104- H9 _! J" r$ f4 d) Q) H* M
Health Transitions......Page 105& f, `$ b8 i! J- D- P
Modeling Health, Especially Mortality......Page 106
/ u7 m. w! C# Z& J9 w7 JHealth in IFs......Page 108+ P: g4 f2 L$ c2 K
The Distal Foundation......Page 109$ \, |& v" v$ X4 w
The Risk Assessment Overlay......Page 112
/ X* E: r# U5 v3 {) SCombining the Distal and Proximate Risk Drivers......Page 1148 `$ T' k, f- h7 t/ t \8 a5 O _
Other Important Health Variables......Page 115* Q- g5 x) b5 s& F/ E9 n3 m8 A
Comparative Scenarios......Page 116
1 p& c' ^, Q' _7 OEducation......Page 1174 C- w7 V1 {* h$ n6 [
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 118
3 i J, j1 j, o# A" i1 {# YEducation Transitions......Page 120) t* D9 G! l* j1 i5 F& y. H
Modeling Education Progression......Page 1222 s$ L9 B: a# p1 }) }- |
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发表于 2020-7-3 08:19:39