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8 t: u# j( ? U3 ?标题（title）：International Futures: Building and Using Global Models/ B3 z' k. y {- x* U7 J9 E. a& x1 C
国际期货：建立和使用全球模型
" a7 f k1 v1 w2 h# ]3 R, N( q3 @* }作者（author）：Barry Hughes, b1 Y+ x- _$ S* q- n" W2 m9 a
出版社（publisher）：Academic Press; ^: |5 q W; Y6 v& b. Q
大小（size）：13 MB (1#897#42 bytes)2 S! Z+ l, {3 @
格式（extension）：pdf
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International Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system.
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8 Q+ Q1 E( s d) u$ |7 K y+ BFinally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years.1 e( b1 G1 z8 I! K
Table of contents : ; r, H8 H. M' m; v* N' x$ E! G# S
Cover......Page 1
6 B- k+ ^* x- g2 S& T" A/ k2 mINTERNATIONAL
! k. A: f D' n1 Y Q6 j* IFUTURES
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4 K9 ], ~; l. O+ F& ?& mBuilding and Using Global Models......Page ##Copyright......Page 4
, B9 E/ s$ x7 n% J5 yPrologue......Page 5
$ e7 R3 ] l8 P( }Glossary I: Model Acronyms and Abbreviations......Page 7- x# N8 G: j- c! Q. z
Glossary II: Modeling-Related Concepts, Tools, and Databases......Page 9
7 I1 g; w) z. V, t! D$ OGlossary III: Organizations, Projects, and Teams......Page 11
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( B$ g. o! q) U8 bIntroduction......Page 1##What Path Are We On?......Page 14$ `6 A* S0 Q* }1 v
What Leverage Do We Have?......Page 15
; R9 d4 H/ e5 H T& ]% ?9 H7 L9 oHow Do We Address Uncertainty?......Page 161 N- N7 ]1 H% X4 T
The Plan of the Volume......Page 171 r1 i+ b& q' ~2 Q
References......Page 18
. l% w7 I/ V$ q$ _- I6 UIdentifying Concepts......Page 19
$ \3 c' M$ H) ]/ D6 r! B" JRecognizing Systems......Page 200 `+ y2 v: Q9 n$ Z1 `8 |0 r
Assembling Data......Page 2##Understanding Past and Ongoing Global Transitions......Page 26( C4 w8 c* I' A$ Z1 b4 @
Making Fundamental Choices Concerning Model Type......Page 28
: }: J) |' K) eBuilding Algorithms......Page ##Making Choices at the Equation Level......Page ##Using Statistical Fit as a Guide, Not a Straitjacket......Page ##Considering Both Distal and Proximate Drivers......Page ##Looking for and Understanding Leverage Points......Page ##Using the Model and Exploring Uncertainty......Page ##Exploring Transformative Uncertainty......Page ##Verification, Validation, and Accreditation......Page ##Addressing Errors of Omission and Commission......Page 427 ?- W7 h6 M4 @ c) o4 \" h
References......Page 4##Foundational Work......Page 45
8 y) ^; `# s; }2 j" Y/ BThe First Wave......Page 46
0 A4 O2 V1 y6 [- Q1 G; S3 ]New Capabilities......Page 47( u; j8 b- _& T
Integrated Assessment Models......Page 49
. r) S# ]3 K9 ~Comparative Use of IAMs......Page 50
/ ?! a \4 }7 ZComparative Assessments of IAM Structures......Page 51; W" G) B' i, p) P- c- v
Status of and Challenges for Global Model Building and Use......Page 59
& |9 l/ z8 t8 y6 S! x6 G( QCoverage and Connections......Page 60
0 y; |1 m& ~/ QTransparency and Openness......Page 61. Q1 ]0 ], ^3 Z8 C- K0 b, r( {; M6 t
Challenges in Model Use: Dealing With Uncertainty......Page 62
' z" {( e0 x: P# E! ^: L, MShared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)......Page 6##Other Integrative Analytical Initiatives......Page 65; u, N$ K1 j, y% A
References......Page 66
2 e/ ?; K9 }9 v4 K2 |3 G7 _' OStructural Overview of IFs......Page 7##Data Analysis......Page 78
3 V% ?! H* E$ \Creation of Scenarios......Page 79
+ m; ^. L' \: ~0 gUsers and Uses of IFs......Page 806 R& l, A/ V, q I6 R
Looking Ahead......Page 829 ~) P3 ~2 r7 v6 `. i2 b
References......Page 8##Population......Page 88' T J! T7 a$ Q2 w; U& w: h' b
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 89
0 j, `, F: {/ w/ t2 C( T) H7 qDemographic Transitions......Page 91- k% Z2 w) h9 q! l0 S: M s
Modeling Population, Especially Fertility......Page 9##Population in IFs......Page 96
# p9 l! J& y# H0 f" L, tFertility Rate......Page 97
! H ]& `* x4 w- [8 _Mortality and Migration......Page 100* m, w/ {$ G( U0 p6 G
Limitations......Page 101) I! k6 P3 E1 } A8 ~
Comparative Scenarios......Page 102/ q& L9 V# T+ w+ r* s: [
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 1041 p$ U2 D' f" M4 h3 g( _! @
Health Transitions......Page 105, Q- x4 W) [8 K% @8 `! X0 i1 T9 Y
Modeling Health, Especially Mortality......Page 1063 t) k- C- T2 x e1 P4 y, |& f
Health in IFs......Page 108
9 p; S$ f! n q: ?/ g5 aThe Distal Foundation......Page 1099 n$ M7 }. F. `: o }
The Risk Assessment Overlay......Page 112' R( \% r" s @/ c
Combining the Distal and Proximate Risk Drivers......Page 114
+ |( p2 h# O& k/ e1 BOther Important Health Variables......Page 1154 {3 @ o( n$ R8 k+ g- ?
Comparative Scenarios......Page 116' B" z) ~; \0 D# C
Education......Page 117
9 V( ^* O& D$ Q) f$ s$ |# QConcepts, Structures, and Data......Page 1184 j! z' X. O0 X2 X' p) i
Education Transitions......Page 120' o+ R) Q& g. R6 T& `
Modeling Education Progression......Page 1220 z0 a9 P: T7 a W6 S$ c$ o
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发表于 2020-7-3 08:19:39