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; a$ ]+ d" a3 x F* l1 a. T ?标题（title）：International Futures: Building and Using Global Models
% I0 `" T( g3 E; W3 z- ]' v. R0 G国际期货：建立和使用全球模型3 k; n' V0 c. r0 ]4 O o" Q
作者（author）：Barry Hughes
; Q V' S, J3 k5 I出版社（publisher）：Academic Press
0 P; e0 Y& T' w/ t$ Y大小（size）：13 MB (1#897#42 bytes)
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9 b# Y3 G9 d0 n0 w# e/ k3 I$ ZInternational Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system.
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Finally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years.6 J$ I+ K, P! F& v3 k' \) o
Table of contents :
3 j. e/ ~! \( r+ [/ |Cover......Page 1. v+ X; o( D \! ^! F0 G! `. Q7 p2 f3 Q
INTERNATIONAL
& [7 ]. T! z0 X- V/ rFUTURES
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6 L$ i1 Z" ^+ W& {! Q0 J* WBuilding and Using Global Models......Page ##Copyright......Page 4, K, D" i0 _4 k+ ]8 J' q% [2 B
Prologue......Page 5
9 x5 q5 y+ ~) UGlossary I: Model Acronyms and Abbreviations......Page 7! e5 d5 Z' a. q R% A5 G( n' J( }
Glossary II: Modeling-Related Concepts, Tools, and Databases......Page 9) U4 _9 E' N' F
Glossary III: Organizations, Projects, and Teams......Page 11. a1 b# \ r, i+ A
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) O) O4 z' ]: Y7 nIntroduction......Page 1##What Path Are We On?......Page 14# C( d( d" a/ h/ s
What Leverage Do We Have?......Page 15
- p9 A; H8 k7 g7 p& vHow Do We Address Uncertainty?......Page 16/ @0 P% f, O2 x3 i6 E5 x
The Plan of the Volume......Page 17
3 z" u9 @1 A7 gReferences......Page 18
& p$ r" y6 A% g' [Identifying Concepts......Page 19
. n* } j! V& BRecognizing Systems......Page 20: }1 {4 i0 L6 b, `; q
Assembling Data......Page 2##Understanding Past and Ongoing Global Transitions......Page 26. g* ?+ ]0 K+ u8 J3 N& ^$ f: T
Making Fundamental Choices Concerning Model Type......Page 283 T( ^" V0 e. R3 F+ Z) ^
Building Algorithms......Page ##Making Choices at the Equation Level......Page ##Using Statistical Fit as a Guide, Not a Straitjacket......Page ##Considering Both Distal and Proximate Drivers......Page ##Looking for and Understanding Leverage Points......Page ##Using the Model and Exploring Uncertainty......Page ##Exploring Transformative Uncertainty......Page ##Verification, Validation, and Accreditation......Page ##Addressing Errors of Omission and Commission......Page 42
* S, V) k, `6 o: ^References......Page 4##Foundational Work......Page 45
- s& p3 F' F9 p, uThe First Wave......Page 46 {& C1 u k ~( x
New Capabilities......Page 470 k- Y! g) x2 o/ }9 v2 u3 G$ R
Integrated Assessment Models......Page 491 I' o! J2 T9 d9 Q
Comparative Use of IAMs......Page 50/ P8 R" q$ A+ A. t1 a$ k
Comparative Assessments of IAM Structures......Page 51
1 G+ S; J( _* u. f% N5 m! yStatus of and Challenges for Global Model Building and Use......Page 595 C% V" ~7 y# b; v
Coverage and Connections......Page 60
, \5 k) P n& n) C. x( oTransparency and Openness......Page 610 C0 D" n6 }4 t9 s# u
Challenges in Model Use: Dealing With Uncertainty......Page 62! U2 m) ]0 J- ]) Q' O$ E: }
Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)......Page 6##Other Integrative Analytical Initiatives......Page 65: {9 n) V% q* }7 R7 ~; b
References......Page 66
3 L2 U9 B6 l$ A4 JStructural Overview of IFs......Page 7##Data Analysis......Page 78 }3 w9 p# @8 \; C" e
Creation of Scenarios......Page 794 [& i% n4 I' N# x
Users and Uses of IFs......Page 80
4 r0 P7 l# Q: |Looking Ahead......Page 82
0 t' n$ M' o4 j7 \) s2 n2 bReferences......Page 8##Population......Page 88
! N6 _2 ?; r: lConcepts, Structures, and Data......Page 89$ @! }$ w1 T/ e' O2 e& b6 q
Demographic Transitions......Page 914 c. h& ]3 M6 e+ |
Modeling Population, Especially Fertility......Page 9##Population in IFs......Page 96
; R# S& J$ x1 CFertility Rate......Page 97+ C+ { ?6 |; ]
Mortality and Migration......Page 100' T9 s2 v+ V; M9 w5 r5 l6 z
Limitations......Page 101 W1 s, w% R' b, T3 u# N6 H `
Comparative Scenarios......Page 1029 J2 S& e6 d( ~3 Q4 V7 y
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 104
& Q1 W' L1 A1 x4 b d4 GHealth Transitions......Page 105
* ~; A) V3 i+ o8 J; k/ G3 X+ N; L( OModeling Health, Especially Mortality......Page 106
; g& C! h5 ]% IHealth in IFs......Page 1089 d& m* B \: B# j! H. r
The Distal Foundation......Page 109/ k4 C9 o- Z( V5 u$ F9 ~& R& e0 S
The Risk Assessment Overlay......Page 1129 u, U/ r; Y8 h# |, k8 ]/ Y
Combining the Distal and Proximate Risk Drivers......Page 114
$ _; ]# {( H0 h& o; O! Y3 f _Other Important Health Variables......Page 115
! w9 M" s& C. w# o- ~) p l; MComparative Scenarios......Page 116
, a2 k7 }. L' k. ]Education......Page 117
2 M- G) O( b3 j' B) F, X- RConcepts, Structures, and Data......Page 118) P+ t# Q. h& @' K9 X4 x- j
Education Transitions......Page 120+ \5 T$ d- H+ ^- y$ N: S- U
Modeling Education Progression......Page 122
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发表于 2020-7-3 08:19:39