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标题（title）：International Futures: Building and Using Global Models+ e2 ]; {( N/ ]( V5 j6 a
国际期货：建立和使用全球模型; w) Y4 I4 F7 b# D, m
作者（author）：Barry Hughes
% \* {- B1 Y6 {6 p出版社（publisher）：Academic Press
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International Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system.
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Finally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years.& _0 S* q6 Y. I8 z/ n, v
Table of contents :
* Y* G' [8 u9 B9 B/ b/ S6 aCover......Page 1
. ^4 M- ?/ h; J# g/ aINTERNATIONAL( c g" K! [0 y
FUTURES* v+ n8 u4 w% ]7 r
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Building and Using Global Models......Page ##Copyright......Page 48 F# b+ ?, Z7 r# [/ R W; H* ~
Prologue......Page 5. M/ s' B( }1 C' ~% W& B, F( \- {7 ^
Glossary I: Model Acronyms and Abbreviations......Page 7
( H7 D) B( I& Y% \Glossary II: Modeling-Related Concepts, Tools, and Databases......Page 9
) T5 `7 ~& X/ L# ]5 s3 }) wGlossary III: Organizations, Projects, and Teams......Page 115 z( {, p# @* d2 d! q" v, i
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Introduction......Page 1##What Path Are We On?......Page 14
( T. N, M# C2 i( BWhat Leverage Do We Have?......Page 15* k4 @; _1 X7 t) [0 Z1 }1 l/ Y
How Do We Address Uncertainty?......Page 16
% q- `3 }8 Z0 kThe Plan of the Volume......Page 170 ?* B# v' [8 q
References......Page 18( w! r; \% |& `
Identifying Concepts......Page 19
. q5 Z% |$ o# n; g! t& f* R; |2 DRecognizing Systems......Page 20' a2 o/ N$ H' {+ A! L& m" W& i" a
Assembling Data......Page 2##Understanding Past and Ongoing Global Transitions......Page 26
0 E: L9 `7 v8 U( x) W& Q% `Making Fundamental Choices Concerning Model Type......Page 28
1 E- H r. Y/ c5 pBuilding Algorithms......Page ##Making Choices at the Equation Level......Page ##Using Statistical Fit as a Guide, Not a Straitjacket......Page ##Considering Both Distal and Proximate Drivers......Page ##Looking for and Understanding Leverage Points......Page ##Using the Model and Exploring Uncertainty......Page ##Exploring Transformative Uncertainty......Page ##Verification, Validation, and Accreditation......Page ##Addressing Errors of Omission and Commission......Page 42
5 }! c8 `2 Z9 f% n: s) [References......Page 4##Foundational Work......Page 45
1 ^6 X( {0 R ]. nThe First Wave......Page 46
# S8 f' i9 p$ |% h) ]: GNew Capabilities......Page 47
* w) P2 c' n- v# x! h& a) G0 CIntegrated Assessment Models......Page 49' O; M" A: _- h8 \! k& j. V
Comparative Use of IAMs......Page 50
( v" s% b. U" c5 g9 D/ _! gComparative Assessments of IAM Structures......Page 51, R' a! _+ {5 c! ~
Status of and Challenges for Global Model Building and Use......Page 59, G& ^& v% j9 a
Coverage and Connections......Page 60
5 z! b$ l* _* b) m0 ATransparency and Openness......Page 61
) p5 G3 ?: H0 N# G6 |( ~5 x- IChallenges in Model Use: Dealing With Uncertainty......Page 62
( v1 l: o/ q* G; t4 D2 x+ BShared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)......Page 6##Other Integrative Analytical Initiatives......Page 65+ M* u' a3 l9 M1 y$ C
References......Page 66
" V2 D$ j3 P, m7 Q" uStructural Overview of IFs......Page 7##Data Analysis......Page 78- i8 v% u+ y1 @% I
Creation of Scenarios......Page 79
5 z) h+ H, S8 w3 b9 oUsers and Uses of IFs......Page 80
& |; o3 T& S' |* lLooking Ahead......Page 82
' Y# `+ r: @$ P) q' V6 NReferences......Page 8##Population......Page 88
% m4 P% B5 `1 k( i0 f4 D9 q2 W) kConcepts, Structures, and Data......Page 89. n8 j: P! N% r0 x0 l. [3 _/ `% ]9 p
Demographic Transitions......Page 91
2 ~1 {7 Y# N: t& BModeling Population, Especially Fertility......Page 9##Population in IFs......Page 96
0 F& p* Q. x" ~/ N0 E6 g( }/ E2 A/ eFertility Rate......Page 97. z# ~% e, `! |; v$ v4 ~$ C5 X; g
Mortality and Migration......Page 100/ X- g) N' I/ \
Limitations......Page 101
' k1 V8 G1 m/ y: C/ v! q6 MComparative Scenarios......Page 102+ J1 h s# E0 Z U1 G- {
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 104
7 ^& r" j% S0 Y# ?3 gHealth Transitions......Page 105) D/ R R' M# V$ t# ]5 q C2 q2 v) o
Modeling Health, Especially Mortality......Page 106/ ]+ n: h1 _! e( O& U2 C& ~9 ]2 \+ Q, J
Health in IFs......Page 1080 A* E: t# d, L3 @6 p: \
The Distal Foundation......Page 109; O& h4 j1 }2 z7 `/ Z
The Risk Assessment Overlay......Page 112/ i0 J2 F, V3 ^2 ?: r
Combining the Distal and Proximate Risk Drivers......Page 114
6 q, w: I5 c9 y0 p/ a5 N' i( V8 [Other Important Health Variables......Page 115+ j* c9 t6 B2 Z- C1 u
Comparative Scenarios......Page 116
* m$ M) P9 ~/ aEducation......Page 117
4 [5 I( d) N* J* B, _- pConcepts, Structures, and Data......Page 118
5 C8 `" S6 b9 W& QEducation Transitions......Page 120. m( O) V; L& s& V6 J
Modeling Education Progression......Page 122
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发表于 2020-7-3 08:19:39