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4 X% I$ x3 J# t! W7 J7 `/ d标题（title）：International Futures: Building and Using Global Models3 D% L* {+ e @4 d* }
国际期货：建立和使用全球模型3 J: G( }* W. G2 m: K/ K- y
作者（author）：Barry Hughes
* s, z6 }. Z) }4 A# _4 M0 s出版社（publisher）：Academic Press
# N: |, I0 {. M大小（size）：13 MB (1#897#42 bytes)
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, X8 Y- ?! i& o0 z6 S$ [5 M# d& UInternational Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system.- l# {% `2 U, q0 Q& ^. ~
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2 l4 o0 m h1 \5 ?! R2 w0 h. OFinally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years.! a$ ?! a% A) Y! \1 J$ z1 E+ ~
Table of contents : - ^$ a# a+ \* T: i Z
Cover......Page 1- ]. c/ U5 v1 x8 c) }
INTERNATIONAL
* Q/ }5 `* H/ l6 m. B' cFUTURES4 \- w) C% d; h4 o' w6 q
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Building and Using Global Models......Page ##Copyright......Page 4# I7 ~- M% A+ E4 i0 A# i
Prologue......Page 5% o( A$ | Z' }! O# Z1 \- S9 @$ _
Glossary I: Model Acronyms and Abbreviations......Page 7' r$ \8 D# r. d. z, N
Glossary II: Modeling-Related Concepts, Tools, and Databases......Page 9
" ]& T, X- E8 ^6 j) T( `" kGlossary III: Organizations, Projects, and Teams......Page 11
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Introduction......Page 1##What Path Are We On?......Page 14# i" ^! @/ T0 U8 {" b5 A$ ^1 f4 u
What Leverage Do We Have?......Page 15
+ z7 k, d- ~( _- YHow Do We Address Uncertainty?......Page 16
2 {; N- ~6 E' w) bThe Plan of the Volume......Page 17
5 {0 m% t' O+ y+ b V1 h6 bReferences......Page 18 t( U. v, ~# z" Y7 _0 b& s
Identifying Concepts......Page 19
' {* v8 v+ ~" L* l- \Recognizing Systems......Page 206 r7 x$ R7 ?" T7 F/ y
Assembling Data......Page 2##Understanding Past and Ongoing Global Transitions......Page 26
+ g5 t$ B$ ~5 hMaking Fundamental Choices Concerning Model Type......Page 285 C' z- {& w/ W
Building Algorithms......Page ##Making Choices at the Equation Level......Page ##Using Statistical Fit as a Guide, Not a Straitjacket......Page ##Considering Both Distal and Proximate Drivers......Page ##Looking for and Understanding Leverage Points......Page ##Using the Model and Exploring Uncertainty......Page ##Exploring Transformative Uncertainty......Page ##Verification, Validation, and Accreditation......Page ##Addressing Errors of Omission and Commission......Page 42
8 ]" o# R* K. R0 s0 y; v- mReferences......Page 4##Foundational Work......Page 45$ U5 {+ L1 L5 y w2 G+ O
The First Wave......Page 46" J# g$ C3 u, @5 `4 q1 B% F! D
New Capabilities......Page 47
6 j2 p* k, n: U1 SIntegrated Assessment Models......Page 49, \& N! ]: \# _, f
Comparative Use of IAMs......Page 50
! S) @ B% `+ M0 n, `, P1 EComparative Assessments of IAM Structures......Page 51
$ q: J4 L4 ^' k' I1 B" tStatus of and Challenges for Global Model Building and Use......Page 59
; H, y6 Y- j' W, \; BCoverage and Connections......Page 60
7 l! ]6 @( ?) s6 OTransparency and Openness......Page 61
( `. ~, U+ [- s* N7 a0 yChallenges in Model Use: Dealing With Uncertainty......Page 62: R/ R! K+ l9 F/ k
Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)......Page 6##Other Integrative Analytical Initiatives......Page 65
. G1 G! L0 u4 z0 R$ k% PReferences......Page 66
8 `3 z) M! b0 L# _, v' O* N8 uStructural Overview of IFs......Page 7##Data Analysis......Page 78
8 a, S( \/ A4 x6 ZCreation of Scenarios......Page 79! G$ e1 ]1 u+ n
Users and Uses of IFs......Page 80- Y* {& ]& W# t& N
Looking Ahead......Page 82
1 s, i2 w. D) {: ^. W6 p9 _, UReferences......Page 8##Population......Page 88
& j& O: y a1 \- gConcepts, Structures, and Data......Page 89* o6 U& t) S- n3 q# K- v4 q; I9 G9 h
Demographic Transitions......Page 91
, Z8 r' I4 H' g# A1 I' ~Modeling Population, Especially Fertility......Page 9##Population in IFs......Page 965 x. }4 Z$ u, A3 L: ]9 M' a5 f; H
Fertility Rate......Page 97
8 b/ G% u) y+ c0 S- MMortality and Migration......Page 1006 f( C* F( B3 a' E9 `2 ?) l
Limitations......Page 101
7 L6 D; a4 J0 ~ bComparative Scenarios......Page 102( o+ v3 V' M9 \, y
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 1040 n7 M7 u( Z9 B: S4 L# o/ s
Health Transitions......Page 105" a9 J/ T# d' R) p5 z+ \
Modeling Health, Especially Mortality......Page 106) e" r/ g; i, f: f; `( E% A" y
Health in IFs......Page 108
# {# v" \ d7 X$ A" uThe Distal Foundation......Page 109
8 Z1 @$ v4 m8 B; KThe Risk Assessment Overlay......Page 112
' v7 X( Z/ D& v1 Q/ l" a% ACombining the Distal and Proximate Risk Drivers......Page 114
$ P/ o! L8 [ [, h9 mOther Important Health Variables......Page 1152 p) _& p1 g# i0 `- A: G
Comparative Scenarios......Page 1160 T& g# a2 Z# f* L: ^; G& [/ G
Education......Page 117
4 d* V+ T A) T4 P \5 B4 X0 YConcepts, Structures, and Data......Page 118$ R$ W; U: m8 i
Education Transitions......Page 120) _5 |& ]5 x7 |/ Q& l6 Y& ?
Modeling Education Progression......Page 122- K# Z) [% |9 h0 n1 @' @; Q
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发表于 2020-7-3 08:19:39