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【电子书分享】国际期货:建立和使用全球模型-Internat

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发表于 2020-7-3 08:19:39 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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* l4 ]! g- `( I1 C标题(title):International Futures: Building and Using Global Models
4 X# k) \7 Y: t* r国际期货:建立和使用全球模型
% a) _$ u1 Q# r  `' l7 ^$ A: b* R作者(author):Barry Hughes
* y6 ]6 O( R8 X' [) e' m! t出版社(publisher):Academic Press
: K  K2 Y' B7 M+ s& M大小(size):13 MB (1#897#42 bytes)5 P) Z# d# v3 ^) ^
格式(extension):pdf
  Z; ^" J5 d* P9 T) M注意:如果文件下载解压完成后为无法打开的格式,请修改后缀名为格式对应后缀
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# I( n+ `/ Y* R& u, W2 kInternational Futures: Building and Using Global Models  extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system.
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9 f7 Z' ]. X# CFinally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years.
  g# r" o4 e3 f: _4 ~' q, [Table of contents : : P/ n3 W2 I4 r/ r; i
Cover......Page 12 Q' w+ z- u9 b7 t. t/ R5 b3 R% v
INTERNATIONAL
" R! }. F7 i( P; [9 s* Y" @FUTURES6 R4 W9 O' H4 {/ e4 U  ^
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- |0 L2 z  \, `  d: k7 WBuilding and Using Global Models......Page ##Copyright......Page 4
" ?# ~! m5 ^' S$ d, r$ FPrologue......Page 5
: f8 p- b2 g( x( u+ X/ @Glossary I: Model Acronyms and Abbreviations......Page 7
7 f) m& v! [; C( ~/ H! e% \2 ~Glossary II: Modeling-Related Concepts, Tools, and Databases......Page 9% l1 y: k7 d8 S: X
Glossary III: Organizations, Projects, and Teams......Page 11
  F& _" C7 O2 T; G; b4 X; n17 U9 b5 X3 d0 D( t4 b  `' r. c4 i' o
Introduction......Page 1##What Path Are We On?......Page 14
, x. V5 g2 u+ C4 n: {& u3 e* A6 \) mWhat Leverage Do We Have?......Page 151 W8 S8 \* j0 Q7 u# j
How Do We Address Uncertainty?......Page 16
& ~+ S( e& Q7 G8 l- U% n; HThe Plan of the Volume......Page 17
+ K% J0 ]+ U) m# V$ L+ p/ Z+ ?+ fReferences......Page 18# a+ I, j* V' ]9 @
Identifying Concepts......Page 19
" q7 U& L: J' IRecognizing Systems......Page 20
8 v: E+ e# Z1 q4 l* s' u% H/ p" WAssembling Data......Page 2##Understanding Past and Ongoing Global Transitions......Page 26- i, S' c; E' O4 P/ U
Making Fundamental Choices Concerning Model Type......Page 28
/ }( h1 V4 W& @6 _8 i3 WBuilding Algorithms......Page ##Making Choices at the Equation Level......Page ##Using Statistical Fit as a Guide, Not a Straitjacket......Page ##Considering Both Distal and Proximate Drivers......Page ##Looking for and Understanding Leverage Points......Page ##Using the Model and Exploring Uncertainty......Page ##Exploring Transformative Uncertainty......Page ##Verification, Validation, and Accreditation......Page ##Addressing Errors of Omission and Commission......Page 428 G7 f( B# M, ?. D: ^
References......Page 4##Foundational Work......Page 453 a& y% t/ p( L0 h; v
The First Wave......Page 46
# Z1 _7 y2 P& p1 iNew Capabilities......Page 47+ G& l" G+ x4 n
Integrated Assessment Models......Page 49; T( D7 D9 }" M0 M9 ~
Comparative Use of IAMs......Page 50$ d5 D3 _3 W1 A. C
Comparative Assessments of IAM Structures......Page 51
9 |2 ]' t  H( \& i5 a3 wStatus of and Challenges for Global Model Building and Use......Page 59
6 A) C; S' N, |0 x6 r1 b4 rCoverage and Connections......Page 60
; M/ U8 B4 x: Z: Z9 u! i, KTransparency and Openness......Page 61
) _( r  T) C2 S, G. R: ?* KChallenges in Model Use: Dealing With Uncertainty......Page 621 |* n% n5 S8 n6 T
Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)......Page 6##Other Integrative Analytical Initiatives......Page 65
1 B0 z  U! m) F" ~6 GReferences......Page 66
2 H9 g( u( {" C' k1 E+ n) TStructural Overview of IFs......Page 7##Data Analysis......Page 78
, g* Y7 k/ `" |1 f% CCreation of Scenarios......Page 79
' P* G9 M/ g  s1 kUsers and Uses of IFs......Page 80) r% q# W! B. K
Looking Ahead......Page 82% _( o0 C$ L/ f; }5 b2 g; f, @
References......Page 8##Population......Page 889 J. ^9 V9 d0 P# C% J: I" Y3 {
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 89
! T9 E& o- J1 C3 D+ q& {Demographic Transitions......Page 91
+ E. ^' q- ?4 H, q# lModeling Population, Especially Fertility......Page 9##Population in IFs......Page 961 v% F4 Q1 Y, e1 o/ b! J
Fertility Rate......Page 97
5 @# i$ S. t7 XMortality and Migration......Page 100+ D7 n0 r  W" Z
Limitations......Page 101$ q9 t, v. h. Z, x( z
Comparative Scenarios......Page 102
- V+ \+ L7 E7 U% l5 KConcepts, Structures, and Data......Page 1046 V* H$ Q0 ~; B1 \5 Y4 o# U2 A
Health Transitions......Page 105
9 }/ F7 g$ Q3 N9 CModeling Health, Especially Mortality......Page 106
  k7 J. F; A8 z. T  ^6 t5 |Health in IFs......Page 108
( D8 x. D; @* G* o, G4 KThe Distal Foundation......Page 109
9 V2 g7 ^& H, k! {8 C! \& ?The Risk Assessment Overlay......Page 1129 `' |6 }) R2 f, E0 U0 X" B$ T
Combining the Distal and Proximate Risk Drivers......Page 114" B$ F( Y3 R' g' q
Other Important Health Variables......Page 1155 X4 g( _+ C& C" [- s! f
Comparative Scenarios......Page 116
( ^% M7 m' [0 D- r1 PEducation......Page 117
3 k* B" h) ^2 D; D% V! v/ Z0 NConcepts, Structures, and Data......Page 118
7 ?. n* k8 s, X# U& c& G8 QEducation Transitions......Page 120! q  m! F7 I/ g( y9 Y, n) W3 q5 Y
Modeling Education Progression......Page 1227 [; ~3 e( @( a" Y$ w* u2 B; K8 p- D
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