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2 ?7 {! l1 t, S, ^8 _标题（title）：International Futures: Building and Using Global Models% ]; S" g* k7 Y. o7 D& \6 T
国际期货：建立和使用全球模型! H- Y% I; C( ?6 |2 I
作者（author）：Barry Hughes8 U; n! P, Z. z- k: h
出版社（publisher）：Academic Press
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International Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system.6 }; ]1 S/ _$ V
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+ N0 {$ h+ U; Y1 M* pFinally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years., E$ Z7 |3 `2 V% \. A, y5 k
Table of contents :
/ ?. W! ?6 R5 s# `2 c0 d! O- _Cover......Page 1
2 m. ]& k# D- S5 |) ]+ CINTERNATIONAL+ |8 C4 t$ \7 P3 B: N4 {
FUTURES7 r! z( k9 p: E$ W* V; i
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. X5 F/ p1 F. ]Building and Using Global Models......Page ##Copyright......Page 4
2 ~8 r K: l+ M2 h0 G2 G) p9 wPrologue......Page 5) \- P0 K+ a! a6 ]
Glossary I: Model Acronyms and Abbreviations......Page 7
3 \' Y# a P8 v! |9 l3 SGlossary II: Modeling-Related Concepts, Tools, and Databases......Page 9
8 k8 {1 k' W s" q/ o: b/ ZGlossary III: Organizations, Projects, and Teams......Page 11
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Introduction......Page 1##What Path Are We On?......Page 14
" ?/ x# o! M6 R% L) u0 ZWhat Leverage Do We Have?......Page 15- E+ V% F* [; w0 _3 B U+ ~' y
How Do We Address Uncertainty?......Page 16
; f$ l0 V ]/ l6 P& @3 M5 C) G' dThe Plan of the Volume......Page 17
, y( _$ g1 z# M" L1 dReferences......Page 18; |. m, u1 z( o5 N$ ~3 D
Identifying Concepts......Page 19$ |- @+ X0 G0 |# D
Recognizing Systems......Page 20
5 M$ F+ y2 ?) G/ G6 I; V4 ^Assembling Data......Page 2##Understanding Past and Ongoing Global Transitions......Page 26
( e0 I; K* @* D: e6 NMaking Fundamental Choices Concerning Model Type......Page 28. E& h% \& J# L1 P% Q. {7 h
Building Algorithms......Page ##Making Choices at the Equation Level......Page ##Using Statistical Fit as a Guide, Not a Straitjacket......Page ##Considering Both Distal and Proximate Drivers......Page ##Looking for and Understanding Leverage Points......Page ##Using the Model and Exploring Uncertainty......Page ##Exploring Transformative Uncertainty......Page ##Verification, Validation, and Accreditation......Page ##Addressing Errors of Omission and Commission......Page 42
) ~2 F) P& V6 }, OReferences......Page 4##Foundational Work......Page 452 X6 j5 P4 P3 G: O0 e- A6 T
The First Wave......Page 46" I! Y. J! ]8 y! l& D; z
New Capabilities......Page 47
" }& N- i2 _) e' {1 ]" }6 i4 TIntegrated Assessment Models......Page 499 @5 [" E% o* `; [ L- m
Comparative Use of IAMs......Page 50
( C; ?' S4 N: @0 b; [Comparative Assessments of IAM Structures......Page 51
" A% z3 y! u, O$ {1 M* lStatus of and Challenges for Global Model Building and Use......Page 59! A/ h: z# O1 \3 `5 d3 ?
Coverage and Connections......Page 60/ d* O3 O( E! |0 @' }) r
Transparency and Openness......Page 61
/ o$ V4 V {$ {Challenges in Model Use: Dealing With Uncertainty......Page 62
" x3 V# [4 y! C' K! s6 i) J# J' M* {Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)......Page 6##Other Integrative Analytical Initiatives......Page 655 i: S" e; D+ p; P
References......Page 66
5 c ^2 i5 w- AStructural Overview of IFs......Page 7##Data Analysis......Page 78: d1 H: ]! i. ^( I& \! o8 N/ ?0 f, a& @
Creation of Scenarios......Page 79
: t* ?! p, @' TUsers and Uses of IFs......Page 80& L8 @; h' Z6 m' B+ @* t
Looking Ahead......Page 82 H. M" v7 i% w# @
References......Page 8##Population......Page 88
% N- @" O F- J' A3 {! wConcepts, Structures, and Data......Page 89
' ~) O: K0 ?' \, J6 g ^Demographic Transitions......Page 91
2 k0 h' Y4 U6 ~6 M8 z* a0 cModeling Population, Especially Fertility......Page 9##Population in IFs......Page 96) g7 @3 a# T& @% G5 d2 |8 \" x
Fertility Rate......Page 97
' W8 w( I# e) e2 ^. |+ T! Y0 u4 g: bMortality and Migration......Page 100
, a. s; V+ Z, [Limitations......Page 1018 L) N8 q0 y# B* r
Comparative Scenarios......Page 1023 V$ [8 z8 C9 Q Y6 F+ N, ?: U
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 104
4 G4 }6 C; [" G) w! `Health Transitions......Page 105# K# K- K2 \2 R2 a; T
Modeling Health, Especially Mortality......Page 106$ M: `, c' q8 R6 C. g# ~
Health in IFs......Page 108
. V. K4 d! H3 F3 U z# wThe Distal Foundation......Page 109+ t- F+ G; H4 c6 J" s3 D3 o4 _3 `
The Risk Assessment Overlay......Page 112
, V! j. m5 v/ K( P# q& tCombining the Distal and Proximate Risk Drivers......Page 114" B# L& ^. k, ?9 N1 |
Other Important Health Variables......Page 1151 M% I8 C: }. H& z8 ?
Comparative Scenarios......Page 116
1 q8 f) l6 O: F) REducation......Page 117
z) d+ @% \# {! ^7 w$ FConcepts, Structures, and Data......Page 1187 r1 H) r: \9 e+ H% {
Education Transitions......Page 120
( {$ D+ o$ D2 i+ {Modeling Education Progression......Page 122
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发表于 2020-7-3 08:19:39