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标题（title）：International Futures: Building and Using Global Models
% }) B% ^- G2 ?& \0 l. e国际期货：建立和使用全球模型7 c0 R9 X+ f' ^3 Y' ?; v( k9 v' t
作者（author）：Barry Hughes2 i2 p+ t+ R0 a( h b8 C1 U' y
出版社（publisher）：Academic Press
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International Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system.' z3 S3 v9 ^8 s( ?/ z8 g
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Finally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years.8 o. n4 f( U! J1 _- R I
Table of contents :
' j! s9 ^/ q, I! S6 x( k& v$ QCover......Page 1" b% k- e, A, s _* u/ z
INTERNATIONAL
3 [& p% _ J0 D8 y( {1 GFUTURES; b( E4 i% f7 @4 p- j
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Building and Using Global Models......Page ##Copyright......Page 4% u2 E1 f4 K2 P9 G) M S
Prologue......Page 5
: y2 Q7 u! a7 SGlossary I: Model Acronyms and Abbreviations......Page 75 P: j n2 C5 F# a# Q
Glossary II: Modeling-Related Concepts, Tools, and Databases......Page 9; p# E6 |# B) E! O B; m& Q
Glossary III: Organizations, Projects, and Teams......Page 11
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Introduction......Page 1##What Path Are We On?......Page 14
. S& F! H- n- D( m% E5 C9 |0 T+ ^What Leverage Do We Have?......Page 15
# l7 [& P$ _' Q: } \" XHow Do We Address Uncertainty?......Page 162 g: u- z# H0 D" L6 m
The Plan of the Volume......Page 17, a* N" N9 c4 e9 `
References......Page 183 D+ P& F- q: ~+ G Q q0 A2 Z! b7 S. v
Identifying Concepts......Page 19
5 ^2 L C) t! s6 B- \Recognizing Systems......Page 20
, p2 O) |2 M6 j3 uAssembling Data......Page 2##Understanding Past and Ongoing Global Transitions......Page 269 y7 n& E3 \9 h- i* Y, F
Making Fundamental Choices Concerning Model Type......Page 28
0 p D+ B; v: W3 _" A" v9 zBuilding Algorithms......Page ##Making Choices at the Equation Level......Page ##Using Statistical Fit as a Guide, Not a Straitjacket......Page ##Considering Both Distal and Proximate Drivers......Page ##Looking for and Understanding Leverage Points......Page ##Using the Model and Exploring Uncertainty......Page ##Exploring Transformative Uncertainty......Page ##Verification, Validation, and Accreditation......Page ##Addressing Errors of Omission and Commission......Page 42
! E; W" F* |% D( X5 T. G7 ]- dReferences......Page 4##Foundational Work......Page 45+ y. Y* f# }$ R
The First Wave......Page 46
* P/ R' E7 x& Q% ?/ o) F" _: aNew Capabilities......Page 47
! a* ]' a; G6 t& m( y, M* X! nIntegrated Assessment Models......Page 49
/ a s4 ~/ i6 ~Comparative Use of IAMs......Page 50) U7 X7 X; S- b
Comparative Assessments of IAM Structures......Page 519 d) H; M. u% L5 C, q
Status of and Challenges for Global Model Building and Use......Page 59- g" C. S6 {) F* y' Q! Q; q
Coverage and Connections......Page 60
1 \& v7 q; ^! tTransparency and Openness......Page 61
5 f+ @& V$ ?* IChallenges in Model Use: Dealing With Uncertainty......Page 62
3 j% N. Q7 U$ p! }0 d& V( }6 rShared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)......Page 6##Other Integrative Analytical Initiatives......Page 65
; ]* D/ y6 r5 G1 a" |* c) m% OReferences......Page 66
6 X. d! d9 o# R1 N7 k* Z( NStructural Overview of IFs......Page 7##Data Analysis......Page 78
$ G! k, g5 Q0 E7 w# \Creation of Scenarios......Page 79
; J) U z. L7 K! [5 C7 TUsers and Uses of IFs......Page 80/ v M; B" {& ^6 W$ h
Looking Ahead......Page 824 ? v% Z0 h* a. M7 @8 A+ o& l1 l
References......Page 8##Population......Page 88
" a7 }+ `4 p9 C4 f5 OConcepts, Structures, and Data......Page 89
% b+ i T2 ]% x" qDemographic Transitions......Page 91
3 j) e5 X" C6 ? V$ ]( g4 lModeling Population, Especially Fertility......Page 9##Population in IFs......Page 969 F0 z5 d7 }& T% T" |/ J: b
Fertility Rate......Page 97- G' n! t2 y X
Mortality and Migration......Page 1006 W8 _/ u9 w& m- t0 I" J
Limitations......Page 101
x' E' V+ u; O! D+ S6 a9 TComparative Scenarios......Page 102
: m& B/ l* T! O, B+ ]Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 104
& K* A! ^9 U& j; E; Z& d6 c6 pHealth Transitions......Page 105
9 B/ u* o- f0 M, cModeling Health, Especially Mortality......Page 106
( J0 c9 l5 T+ o9 g) xHealth in IFs......Page 108
; H8 G! E# Z- R8 FThe Distal Foundation......Page 109
: g& [4 [. ^! x' tThe Risk Assessment Overlay......Page 1125 H& S7 d" L/ b. F V. o5 ^) e+ k
Combining the Distal and Proximate Risk Drivers......Page 114
0 \' k/ |+ A; V6 V7 D' TOther Important Health Variables......Page 115* R* x7 ~+ m3 @* l; j2 L; z
Comparative Scenarios......Page 116
: V3 h/ C& r- uEducation......Page 117
# V; n/ ?& n, K9 JConcepts, Structures, and Data......Page 118/ N2 L& ~3 V7 \* ]) z( V% {
Education Transitions......Page 120
a7 W0 {1 j9 cModeling Education Progression......Page 122
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发表于 2020-7-3 08:19:39