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" X: t8 ` Q( }9 g标题（title）：International Futures: Building and Using Global Models
' G) _6 o, c% u2 j5 D, I" B国际期货：建立和使用全球模型+ p9 c. n/ H# F) T9 t7 [8 d' R
作者（author）：Barry Hughes
8 O( q) R. p, l$ N5 @' N出版社（publisher）：Academic Press. l+ x- x$ k" }( i
大小（size）：13 MB (1#897#42 bytes); D" x. m& `! x
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# ^2 k; m( s) O; P) {International Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system., k& R' K" B! f, {9 Z+ Q
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Finally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years.. y7 Q- a# Z1 D# o
Table of contents : ^2 R0 D! R S
Cover......Page 1- A8 K, t, S' G* Z) l
INTERNATIONAL
: n7 D+ ~. m0 X' P: q$ v* |8 lFUTURES
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Building and Using Global Models......Page ##Copyright......Page 48 l% r. t$ f3 k0 k p" A9 b
Prologue......Page 53 _# {3 H5 Q9 E- w
Glossary I: Model Acronyms and Abbreviations......Page 75 ^/ ], C$ n0 U0 {
Glossary II: Modeling-Related Concepts, Tools, and Databases......Page 9! v e& [, `6 I9 r4 X
Glossary III: Organizations, Projects, and Teams......Page 11
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0 x% `/ y1 c! \Introduction......Page 1##What Path Are We On?......Page 149 B' x E( I+ c3 L& |
What Leverage Do We Have?......Page 157 ]) I& W. m, E V/ h
How Do We Address Uncertainty?......Page 167 i0 ]& ?' r+ f8 R
The Plan of the Volume......Page 17
" x- k/ B/ j/ [$ UReferences......Page 18
3 X8 Y# i y* T9 a1 U- {Identifying Concepts......Page 19
: C) G* V) I+ m. p) X q% BRecognizing Systems......Page 20
2 G) ]& N: k! B* A" s) nAssembling Data......Page 2##Understanding Past and Ongoing Global Transitions......Page 26
. _3 v2 A0 t; ~( oMaking Fundamental Choices Concerning Model Type......Page 28" V8 H0 M6 k" ]( b: Y3 _' z( s
Building Algorithms......Page ##Making Choices at the Equation Level......Page ##Using Statistical Fit as a Guide, Not a Straitjacket......Page ##Considering Both Distal and Proximate Drivers......Page ##Looking for and Understanding Leverage Points......Page ##Using the Model and Exploring Uncertainty......Page ##Exploring Transformative Uncertainty......Page ##Verification, Validation, and Accreditation......Page ##Addressing Errors of Omission and Commission......Page 42
. t0 m6 @ [$ N# L+ GReferences......Page 4##Foundational Work......Page 45
- Q$ ]: U; U2 p- y* X- fThe First Wave......Page 46
- {7 R' K9 u! zNew Capabilities......Page 47' h* K$ G2 W& ~4 B" j
Integrated Assessment Models......Page 49
9 I, g5 y0 \# C* uComparative Use of IAMs......Page 50
" h% p; t) O6 N, J, W5 N' H! ZComparative Assessments of IAM Structures......Page 51
7 ^# F* t7 {0 _2 K5 p+ B$ O/ mStatus of and Challenges for Global Model Building and Use......Page 59
: R2 e: f2 }3 o+ f T& R7 W' L8 u9 nCoverage and Connections......Page 60
, b( d8 W* ]4 ?1 _! y, FTransparency and Openness......Page 613 L" |3 e. n; B1 ?2 j( B% a
Challenges in Model Use: Dealing With Uncertainty......Page 62) x, y* O& I4 A6 Q
Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)......Page 6##Other Integrative Analytical Initiatives......Page 65
! r+ h' } ]" AReferences......Page 66
' h6 h X# K* OStructural Overview of IFs......Page 7##Data Analysis......Page 78
4 ^5 o0 ^& e: I/ TCreation of Scenarios......Page 793 w, c/ `$ r' F2 S
Users and Uses of IFs......Page 80
1 s6 P% F- A8 K g# ]8 oLooking Ahead......Page 82
9 y" t# s* k2 `9 eReferences......Page 8##Population......Page 88) p1 i; ?, I; ]! ]
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 896 j: S1 l" m/ }0 Y
Demographic Transitions......Page 91
3 [& J1 n( J+ DModeling Population, Especially Fertility......Page 9##Population in IFs......Page 96
4 q2 W$ P% z8 NFertility Rate......Page 97, z9 d8 l( ^* n6 y$ q) R
Mortality and Migration......Page 100
' R- T n% G' ` J i* VLimitations......Page 101+ {$ W8 X5 G: `( U) C/ Q
Comparative Scenarios......Page 1021 I3 B+ E0 X( S$ W5 K
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 104
! E: \1 [2 S3 UHealth Transitions......Page 1051 m$ M; B+ ~1 y$ a8 C `4 |2 s @
Modeling Health, Especially Mortality......Page 106& o5 W8 d3 W; T3 @
Health in IFs......Page 108
2 R" \0 c$ G' L1 k9 z. f! b/ wThe Distal Foundation......Page 1094 z+ K" j& R7 N O' G$ v/ B& F' Y. C
The Risk Assessment Overlay......Page 112
- P( m7 B7 H% E+ D- lCombining the Distal and Proximate Risk Drivers......Page 114
+ L# x' ~$ B. a) F( W3 IOther Important Health Variables......Page 115" i: b9 c1 K6 Z: i2 j' x$ v& a
Comparative Scenarios......Page 116
! l- T+ }4 S3 b" f. _% ZEducation......Page 117
4 |" t; ~1 z$ a# CConcepts, Structures, and Data......Page 118
, N8 k. W! X4 gEducation Transitions......Page 120
3 k. G$ A' t- ] g: b$ w# NModeling Education Progression......Page 122
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发表于 2020-7-3 08:19:39