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标题（title）：International Futures: Building and Using Global Models; ]# u( Y5 e1 V+ v/ Z% M: U/ f/ w
国际期货：建立和使用全球模型
* C- s; S- y8 |; b, b作者（author）：Barry Hughes+ u; T& e! d, t: @+ g
出版社（publisher）：Academic Press+ M3 b1 k9 d7 {0 z
大小（size）：13 MB (1#897#42 bytes)
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# A' |3 L4 j4 |( i* ~6 w: ?8 Q: lInternational Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system.
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Finally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years.) H6 L4 D% M+ J* d, K6 @& Z; Q4 d
Table of contents : 3 i7 ?; e2 l1 m6 r h w
Cover......Page 1
5 Z; X8 x$ \, w/ ^$ HINTERNATIONAL
+ E! f; c3 o. N8 c& x: L/ pFUTURES
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& D6 ?; D- W/ j5 h+ l) XBuilding and Using Global Models......Page ##Copyright......Page 4
0 d+ R1 v- Y; L6 Q* t+ [; I/ MPrologue......Page 5! Z; }4 m% x+ l. X
Glossary I: Model Acronyms and Abbreviations......Page 75 a' q: P! i/ |* M7 A
Glossary II: Modeling-Related Concepts, Tools, and Databases......Page 9
8 m; A) P1 W4 C LGlossary III: Organizations, Projects, and Teams......Page 11
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6 L8 \ J# _1 B' x; p: v- kIntroduction......Page 1##What Path Are We On?......Page 14
! e1 i9 o6 H; G T# oWhat Leverage Do We Have?......Page 15
+ U8 I9 F3 E8 H2 EHow Do We Address Uncertainty?......Page 16
5 a u# l3 R% x5 R3 VThe Plan of the Volume......Page 17
; P+ U/ Q. j. Y" G! R0 P$ MReferences......Page 18
0 r) i/ U+ `4 [8 Y2 \Identifying Concepts......Page 19
# y( v; U+ j4 t, @- P- DRecognizing Systems......Page 204 e8 r2 \5 M9 X
Assembling Data......Page 2##Understanding Past and Ongoing Global Transitions......Page 26
8 U& n4 {" c2 @4 E+ A7 {. BMaking Fundamental Choices Concerning Model Type......Page 28
, n' [- Z9 c# [Building Algorithms......Page ##Making Choices at the Equation Level......Page ##Using Statistical Fit as a Guide, Not a Straitjacket......Page ##Considering Both Distal and Proximate Drivers......Page ##Looking for and Understanding Leverage Points......Page ##Using the Model and Exploring Uncertainty......Page ##Exploring Transformative Uncertainty......Page ##Verification, Validation, and Accreditation......Page ##Addressing Errors of Omission and Commission......Page 42) y8 e9 {0 ?2 E9 ^0 v6 k* _
References......Page 4##Foundational Work......Page 45
6 R( [1 \% p2 l1 A4 @* l7 iThe First Wave......Page 46
; o0 d) o2 x! aNew Capabilities......Page 472 t+ G/ }/ }7 o$ V, `- ?
Integrated Assessment Models......Page 49$ |3 X# {9 u; ]2 `1 V/ W( y' u! {
Comparative Use of IAMs......Page 50 d5 ^- |- n+ w( Y: Y- G9 B7 E6 D, b
Comparative Assessments of IAM Structures......Page 51) }2 U6 @$ d) \2 L B2 p
Status of and Challenges for Global Model Building and Use......Page 590 Q1 w p1 A0 g. Z& F
Coverage and Connections......Page 60
- h @8 | G' L hTransparency and Openness......Page 61
- R& t# Z2 A5 h# ]Challenges in Model Use: Dealing With Uncertainty......Page 62" s$ X7 p8 V7 x0 F: N8 F N
Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)......Page 6##Other Integrative Analytical Initiatives......Page 65
7 y5 m! D; V. O. Y$ a& eReferences......Page 664 r0 g) j r- ~/ L' Y" }$ w
Structural Overview of IFs......Page 7##Data Analysis......Page 78
: b& w6 n- L) T y/ oCreation of Scenarios......Page 79/ y$ B% o4 J4 M v
Users and Uses of IFs......Page 80( ]0 S u' z5 z, }2 N
Looking Ahead......Page 824 p) S0 D' x; b
References......Page 8##Population......Page 88+ }2 ^' V% o1 g% ^
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 89; Z$ x E4 S+ o5 i* S9 u
Demographic Transitions......Page 91
, t$ q3 t( s! P9 K3 ?7 G7 SModeling Population, Especially Fertility......Page 9##Population in IFs......Page 96
" e1 t0 A. S6 t6 v" T* o0 bFertility Rate......Page 97
2 x2 B! [6 U. k+ I; KMortality and Migration......Page 1002 |; b, W' p+ U: n
Limitations......Page 1017 A8 O, s# K1 a9 Z9 R, G9 z# T Y
Comparative Scenarios......Page 102
/ m6 d+ U2 }' k1 o! x jConcepts, Structures, and Data......Page 1048 O9 o* G- i% d! b$ H
Health Transitions......Page 1055 s3 O2 g" a1 H7 {1 D3 F( _4 m
Modeling Health, Especially Mortality......Page 106: |; F- w6 d& k! S
Health in IFs......Page 108
% p4 s! u; j+ V$ W: ~The Distal Foundation......Page 109
0 p' Q/ j" Q8 c; S# K1 I1 _The Risk Assessment Overlay......Page 112
* w' _, v: G* l) a1 iCombining the Distal and Proximate Risk Drivers......Page 114& k0 ]+ I0 g& g S- Q) J( v
Other Important Health Variables......Page 1154 _& E; n' q% n6 B
Comparative Scenarios......Page 116
! Y1 ~5 B+ `! }1 _! v+ l1 F/ n1 Y" B% ~1 EEducation......Page 117. A* |! P- Y; [5 L; Z
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 1189 s3 m3 C1 X" L9 A
Education Transitions......Page 120, C# @) }1 c6 @; @* z6 j
Modeling Education Progression......Page 122. W. ~5 `2 g$ q, B& S$ W. z
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发表于 2020-7-3 08:19:39