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0 F/ n7 j/ X, x8 L, K, e3 q3 |标题（title）：International Futures: Building and Using Global Models
0 d9 J- I% y) [+ Z! k国际期货：建立和使用全球模型8 A4 n4 I' |2 y& K$ D
作者（author）：Barry Hughes
" \/ q( J! \# F P& d出版社（publisher）：Academic Press
& n4 L5 R; p% |+ ]5 L8 N大小（size）：13 MB (1#897#42 bytes)
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International Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system.9 \4 [2 ~- p& h' S: \. V- c& T
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Finally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years./ U5 d* S& K# R& h
Table of contents :
$ v# V: v" C& E: j, P. aCover......Page 1+ U3 E0 d7 m! |6 p' \0 R7 _ d
INTERNATIONAL6 R& j# ^& Z- o- K
FUTURES
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Building and Using Global Models......Page ##Copyright......Page 4, Q1 F. y9 V$ v: v
Prologue......Page 59 X: v+ F7 U1 B4 @# A% l
Glossary I: Model Acronyms and Abbreviations......Page 7+ W$ k% R: L9 k# J
Glossary II: Modeling-Related Concepts, Tools, and Databases......Page 9
. C. b, F$ z z8 ^/ ~: u1 aGlossary III: Organizations, Projects, and Teams......Page 11! k- X' x- D/ s) c( N
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Introduction......Page 1##What Path Are We On?......Page 143 Y) |, u$ E; ?# ]/ D- M
What Leverage Do We Have?......Page 158 X+ V+ @, r# J4 \
How Do We Address Uncertainty?......Page 161 `" O! g* i& g9 P: y
The Plan of the Volume......Page 17, W- h" K* U2 o( e* _. K* d
References......Page 187 r2 S- ]. S- f4 J
Identifying Concepts......Page 19
: F. Q7 {$ X. r7 m9 O# o! yRecognizing Systems......Page 20# E% k. N$ m/ b6 i5 _* b! U
Assembling Data......Page 2##Understanding Past and Ongoing Global Transitions......Page 269 F' d O" u8 i! k$ _) W
Making Fundamental Choices Concerning Model Type......Page 28+ F- p7 }, u9 k4 f s2 G
Building Algorithms......Page ##Making Choices at the Equation Level......Page ##Using Statistical Fit as a Guide, Not a Straitjacket......Page ##Considering Both Distal and Proximate Drivers......Page ##Looking for and Understanding Leverage Points......Page ##Using the Model and Exploring Uncertainty......Page ##Exploring Transformative Uncertainty......Page ##Verification, Validation, and Accreditation......Page ##Addressing Errors of Omission and Commission......Page 42
3 J" R2 Q. R( e9 {' pReferences......Page 4##Foundational Work......Page 45- u$ B3 f( B r- D- x/ p
The First Wave......Page 46
! x& h4 \- F. |9 Y& `% [4 kNew Capabilities......Page 47
- ]& u5 r' I/ b; a7 f& B7 L* F QIntegrated Assessment Models......Page 49$ w0 o. Q4 Z: K
Comparative Use of IAMs......Page 50
" s+ x5 h$ \0 r1 _ L" A, x0 [& SComparative Assessments of IAM Structures......Page 51. {7 h* H8 T3 p# j9 r5 b h) y
Status of and Challenges for Global Model Building and Use......Page 59$ r& d( H* H+ g* x
Coverage and Connections......Page 60
; j7 f. n2 x2 w+ S5 b$ H$ bTransparency and Openness......Page 61/ I$ P8 Z; m! W, B3 K$ E
Challenges in Model Use: Dealing With Uncertainty......Page 62+ @; m, e" F% P0 _
Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)......Page 6##Other Integrative Analytical Initiatives......Page 65; t6 K# k* F7 o, r4 M
References......Page 66
' I0 P2 G3 T$ s" Q0 x. VStructural Overview of IFs......Page 7##Data Analysis......Page 78
6 J! I/ K" D% N# V) J8 z9 j0 v! l$ FCreation of Scenarios......Page 79. r/ f; n$ A# ^1 P
Users and Uses of IFs......Page 80# K4 ~. d& r/ v/ ^. N! h& Z1 G9 [& B
Looking Ahead......Page 82
2 S, [ {# s S3 H5 G5 i" z2 SReferences......Page 8##Population......Page 882 L1 p+ |1 Y2 T
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 89
# i% i6 C6 ?' TDemographic Transitions......Page 91
2 J8 @; g6 ^* n3 f; aModeling Population, Especially Fertility......Page 9##Population in IFs......Page 96( p; L% W4 A# U7 u, r8 q. R* j
Fertility Rate......Page 97' I, H& {1 Q' _
Mortality and Migration......Page 100
2 D2 I: s M2 k- P" qLimitations......Page 101
1 p0 l. o' E9 f4 QComparative Scenarios......Page 1021 A7 a- k1 z/ E. n* Q
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 1041 A- g1 D: S' |& y( p- Z( [( P
Health Transitions......Page 105
* E6 E& ?$ {6 R. P$ D% rModeling Health, Especially Mortality......Page 106* x! F3 T. I, v& W; R
Health in IFs......Page 1085 A1 H' u6 `" }& I7 q
The Distal Foundation......Page 109/ E" A. g) P% |
The Risk Assessment Overlay......Page 112% l' J( M% t. c9 F' R m' g
Combining the Distal and Proximate Risk Drivers......Page 1146 I' ]+ p5 i# Y
Other Important Health Variables......Page 1157 K5 \' q) z) E
Comparative Scenarios......Page 1163 G, Q3 T$ @4 ^, C
Education......Page 1178 y) G5 ^) S" ~& w' Q
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 118
2 k, A! N$ l8 Q( x% vEducation Transitions......Page 1205 ^6 r+ b8 e" h% S4 k" ?
Modeling Education Progression......Page 1220 r! O$ ]* D8 D' I( k$ f+ D
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发表于 2020-7-3 08:19:39