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标题（title）：International Futures: Building and Using Global Models
5 m& O8 Y. M! L$ s( R国际期货：建立和使用全球模型 A2 ]* ]( Q$ w/ q o! r3 g3 R1 M
作者（author）：Barry Hughes" X. Z$ b6 Z" R6 i
出版社（publisher）：Academic Press
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& o: x5 f$ W6 ~5 jInternational Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system.
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Finally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years.
; |- D$ F: d- F' WTable of contents : 8 ?8 F% l) S- e4 y4 r
Cover......Page 1
4 U. z- g* R: k5 lINTERNATIONAL4 o" d* W: Q b1 D' ^, ?
FUTURES% f$ `9 y& y* d; E5 X5 v J8 q$ D
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Building and Using Global Models......Page ##Copyright......Page 4
/ G8 x9 U7 e/ ?% S5 jPrologue......Page 5
- P1 o. z$ G% k: Y! j& S8 QGlossary I: Model Acronyms and Abbreviations......Page 7
9 }3 t7 U' o* s0 DGlossary II: Modeling-Related Concepts, Tools, and Databases......Page 93 M4 K$ |$ @! U) \: m
Glossary III: Organizations, Projects, and Teams......Page 117 s. G1 }& M# Z3 F7 u
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Introduction......Page 1##What Path Are We On?......Page 145 l; |- W3 `9 {: K8 A3 j, c
What Leverage Do We Have?......Page 15+ C4 @& V# x+ ~9 V* n/ P8 S6 t
How Do We Address Uncertainty?......Page 163 d& S. g8 p2 [/ W
The Plan of the Volume......Page 17* i; T5 a7 G+ a$ [1 G& g& C
References......Page 18. R! ^. D u; J9 z3 @3 K
Identifying Concepts......Page 19
& X4 r6 p0 F( T. L; @- ]Recognizing Systems......Page 20
# U' H, `1 h& C) p4 BAssembling Data......Page 2##Understanding Past and Ongoing Global Transitions......Page 26
7 o# R; T, S9 z. G. k2 _5 UMaking Fundamental Choices Concerning Model Type......Page 28. V9 Y) L, Q0 [. [; [& }8 T' n
Building Algorithms......Page ##Making Choices at the Equation Level......Page ##Using Statistical Fit as a Guide, Not a Straitjacket......Page ##Considering Both Distal and Proximate Drivers......Page ##Looking for and Understanding Leverage Points......Page ##Using the Model and Exploring Uncertainty......Page ##Exploring Transformative Uncertainty......Page ##Verification, Validation, and Accreditation......Page ##Addressing Errors of Omission and Commission......Page 42# o/ o2 \ B0 m1 e0 ^2 M% G
References......Page 4##Foundational Work......Page 45
/ m3 z2 d7 W; c7 j3 ~% ~& YThe First Wave......Page 46
' l5 o/ m. y& X( eNew Capabilities......Page 47
1 s+ ~$ @& l: f8 A QIntegrated Assessment Models......Page 49
2 S! c3 p. p6 E. Y" F! ?+ SComparative Use of IAMs......Page 50
9 r0 x) R7 B. n+ ]8 iComparative Assessments of IAM Structures......Page 511 ?" J+ D* A4 ^$ _! g; w( R/ \
Status of and Challenges for Global Model Building and Use......Page 59+ F/ T( `4 G' P# Q
Coverage and Connections......Page 606 `0 O, M, v# J+ Q
Transparency and Openness......Page 61; k) d% g: _' s& v8 c
Challenges in Model Use: Dealing With Uncertainty......Page 62
5 c! M# \( m) SShared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)......Page 6##Other Integrative Analytical Initiatives......Page 65
: T+ L# _5 }& q- uReferences......Page 66+ Q$ I7 y+ L2 |
Structural Overview of IFs......Page 7##Data Analysis......Page 78
6 A7 I0 R8 p! I q" q$ S( f: j+ z! FCreation of Scenarios......Page 795 o; M# ]$ z8 w: c( N+ }
Users and Uses of IFs......Page 802 \* P8 P. |* r+ ` Q+ z2 p2 j
Looking Ahead......Page 823 I7 ]2 |3 F4 U! B+ K3 r
References......Page 8##Population......Page 88
8 |; t5 p& Q- w9 Q: e, PConcepts, Structures, and Data......Page 89; F4 C4 G U" E" e) h; }* P6 P3 N: Z
Demographic Transitions......Page 91
; w6 o' p8 o, K" bModeling Population, Especially Fertility......Page 9##Population in IFs......Page 96) @- a6 v W, ^. u' v* K6 y
Fertility Rate......Page 97
s4 e9 K( ?2 N/ V+ Q% qMortality and Migration......Page 100
5 U9 o2 P; n9 i3 Q- hLimitations......Page 101
2 t" s b: s6 _! k+ r) ?) t, tComparative Scenarios......Page 1028 f! t# F b S
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 104% t' {0 t$ h" o& B$ h( j' n6 i
Health Transitions......Page 105! \! S8 t$ w$ Y# A9 U; \$ ~4 O
Modeling Health, Especially Mortality......Page 106/ U: i$ q3 F* ^4 K7 M! t- N. G _
Health in IFs......Page 1081 \# e. z9 v* R4 \9 a/ b
The Distal Foundation......Page 109. m! B9 a B" }* Q
The Risk Assessment Overlay......Page 112& [ b$ s2 {9 D' \ e: {* Y
Combining the Distal and Proximate Risk Drivers......Page 114
' k9 {3 t6 ~7 DOther Important Health Variables......Page 115
% A9 q7 J- T+ U9 h6 |* qComparative Scenarios......Page 1163 M2 x5 N: D: h) o4 |2 j6 n7 a
Education......Page 117, F4 g: a f% i7 P
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 118
5 C8 t, C- }+ g. O) G/ M% D: TEducation Transitions......Page 120
# \7 g- |! B$ B) YModeling Education Progression......Page 122, h$ |) Q- X2 P/ J6 Q, B! d6 n
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发表于 2020-7-3 08:19:39