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标题（title）：International Futures: Building and Using Global Models
+ x: A" L) J1 ]9 r国际期货：建立和使用全球模型 ~4 F7 q/ p+ t: A* }
作者（author）：Barry Hughes$ r6 @" Z( T1 V3 l! H* a
出版社（publisher）：Academic Press
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格式（extension）：pdf
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International Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system.
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Finally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years.* T' n4 A6 A$ F1 r- N* q
Table of contents : : X `; U' z3 u F) R! e
Cover......Page 1) ]- ]" m- [! _
INTERNATIONAL: f V) C* a. ]: k' _ `6 y9 D
FUTURES
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Building and Using Global Models......Page ##Copyright......Page 46 O4 ]6 r2 j9 X+ }; u
Prologue......Page 5
l8 R6 ]* S/ Y2 A5 X' P2 @Glossary I: Model Acronyms and Abbreviations......Page 7# R" }. K$ O0 f! r
Glossary II: Modeling-Related Concepts, Tools, and Databases......Page 98 D1 s: \3 C1 u/ `1 M
Glossary III: Organizations, Projects, and Teams......Page 11+ o \$ \4 m* i- z8 o
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9 b9 @1 I) v: l' jIntroduction......Page 1##What Path Are We On?......Page 14
& J0 X3 B6 A$ z0 [# sWhat Leverage Do We Have?......Page 15
) @1 j" y- k# z% T: U" I( |' uHow Do We Address Uncertainty?......Page 16
5 z* T0 ~: p, ^3 d2 JThe Plan of the Volume......Page 17& f2 [& |& |1 z" O
References......Page 185 W8 I+ k4 I6 m: U. h! w
Identifying Concepts......Page 19
. p" h. u' {7 e! _* VRecognizing Systems......Page 20% [: m; Z+ _/ D$ M
Assembling Data......Page 2##Understanding Past and Ongoing Global Transitions......Page 26
: ^: o; n( [( _' i7 v0 M3 jMaking Fundamental Choices Concerning Model Type......Page 28
8 Q1 N5 |' I7 B. N# rBuilding Algorithms......Page ##Making Choices at the Equation Level......Page ##Using Statistical Fit as a Guide, Not a Straitjacket......Page ##Considering Both Distal and Proximate Drivers......Page ##Looking for and Understanding Leverage Points......Page ##Using the Model and Exploring Uncertainty......Page ##Exploring Transformative Uncertainty......Page ##Verification, Validation, and Accreditation......Page ##Addressing Errors of Omission and Commission......Page 428 ~. T8 Z* l$ R6 o) y7 f; {2 I, N
References......Page 4##Foundational Work......Page 45
! w3 k. ]) [+ a" L+ RThe First Wave......Page 46
6 I! h9 c9 u3 b/ S& @. DNew Capabilities......Page 47
7 }1 }7 x/ s* w3 Q9 HIntegrated Assessment Models......Page 49 X* J& j5 I/ _( v `
Comparative Use of IAMs......Page 50
, D/ x' p0 @4 a" I8 I+ ZComparative Assessments of IAM Structures......Page 515 W, m# Z6 r( `& r6 }, l c' F
Status of and Challenges for Global Model Building and Use......Page 59/ f$ G5 d2 Q( `) o
Coverage and Connections......Page 606 `. v) \4 A* o* C, O6 m8 r- S
Transparency and Openness......Page 61* k% {3 x0 C+ L3 L( O! l5 w- W
Challenges in Model Use: Dealing With Uncertainty......Page 62
/ s: i6 E5 c& t2 q# X. VShared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)......Page 6##Other Integrative Analytical Initiatives......Page 650 E3 m' ~& b5 j: l7 ~
References......Page 66' M% ~; g7 i5 _
Structural Overview of IFs......Page 7##Data Analysis......Page 78; @' s- |" Q/ C$ D3 B7 V _8 _ ]
Creation of Scenarios......Page 79
1 P% J9 k) u( o+ z C) i3 DUsers and Uses of IFs......Page 80
% o5 ~, A2 C4 |2 q) e" X3 SLooking Ahead......Page 82" _+ n5 q% Z# Y1 A* O' ]5 J. ~
References......Page 8##Population......Page 881 n9 \, v+ W" z9 B; {5 h/ H! }0 X
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 89. X9 ?1 p/ I% d
Demographic Transitions......Page 91
4 a" ]1 X( L" c( }# X: |Modeling Population, Especially Fertility......Page 9##Population in IFs......Page 96' @+ c- k( k8 c' b
Fertility Rate......Page 97
7 c9 R4 U# _& W _! Q4 A1 mMortality and Migration......Page 1009 q% F6 w* _2 S* v+ L
Limitations......Page 101
' x* L5 k K3 U, b% [( A S4 p) j, ?Comparative Scenarios......Page 1025 E. m. J8 t) M2 v5 w
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 1047 Q% q3 {9 d# b8 I' c
Health Transitions......Page 105: q1 g4 n9 i4 U+ W2 d
Modeling Health, Especially Mortality......Page 1067 ]! W4 ?: n2 N/ Z% b
Health in IFs......Page 108$ W3 R9 K3 @% X
The Distal Foundation......Page 109
% A" G' s; e# w8 E, SThe Risk Assessment Overlay......Page 1120 N1 |0 @ h9 |/ `9 n4 l t
Combining the Distal and Proximate Risk Drivers......Page 114& H# z, a( ?1 c) {, H9 J# B
Other Important Health Variables......Page 115 g$ d. p8 n( g7 \1 k' U' v6 g
Comparative Scenarios......Page 116$ k8 y! X5 M4 G* w
Education......Page 117
& Y( E+ ]: c8 D0 T# i8 |- L2 aConcepts, Structures, and Data......Page 118
( D& J {1 T1 I, K! U$ u' s/ D; jEducation Transitions......Page 120+ _, O* p% }4 f1 B: n3 @
Modeling Education Progression......Page 122
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发表于 2020-7-3 08:19:39