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标题（title）：International Futures: Building and Using Global Models
$ F0 @: C7 i, W; L- ~国际期货：建立和使用全球模型
1 i8 P8 z, ~7 s作者（author）：Barry Hughes
O( q' D. Y) K+ y! F8 \出版社（publisher）：Academic Press
! B0 y7 H; z1 A大小（size）：13 MB (1#897#42 bytes)
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; A1 X u" T2 E# a0 J; ~+ }$ }8 hInternational Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system.
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* e4 f. j# k- ~Finally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years.2 P; @$ I& U) Z7 u7 P0 v% j- c' Q
Table of contents :
, P& j1 @6 j: ^5 Y7 [Cover......Page 1
- h" r4 Q! @5 u5 ~: x; MINTERNATIONAL( y4 y+ k3 H) h# W* Z
FUTURES
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Building and Using Global Models......Page ##Copyright......Page 4( Y+ |5 \( P. I" v; N9 S! E( {8 i
Prologue......Page 5
) c* P& w- w+ Y$ _Glossary I: Model Acronyms and Abbreviations......Page 7
1 Q( \6 w8 u, G9 U- H7 d( }Glossary II: Modeling-Related Concepts, Tools, and Databases......Page 9
# e( P3 p3 _( {4 I( w; P3 H* z( z3 N2 H) \Glossary III: Organizations, Projects, and Teams......Page 11) C! M: _7 a7 C6 j* h" j" o: M
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6 A. C5 @) W* s' Q; @" N5 h8 oIntroduction......Page 1##What Path Are We On?......Page 14
4 C+ b4 B% d" G# x0 o% p" fWhat Leverage Do We Have?......Page 15% K4 `0 `6 }: a1 V! E; p q* O0 Y
How Do We Address Uncertainty?......Page 16
+ \% H0 C0 Z8 H4 Y% QThe Plan of the Volume......Page 17
# L1 z# {9 C4 M# u7 q+ ^References......Page 18
8 W2 k% g; o8 ]Identifying Concepts......Page 19
- ~# O4 @8 C+ B) H- aRecognizing Systems......Page 20& x) p) y4 m4 ^1 h% c
Assembling Data......Page 2##Understanding Past and Ongoing Global Transitions......Page 26: a2 b( T4 B) x: [" C
Making Fundamental Choices Concerning Model Type......Page 28
; \' i/ z! q" W, w3 Z3 BBuilding Algorithms......Page ##Making Choices at the Equation Level......Page ##Using Statistical Fit as a Guide, Not a Straitjacket......Page ##Considering Both Distal and Proximate Drivers......Page ##Looking for and Understanding Leverage Points......Page ##Using the Model and Exploring Uncertainty......Page ##Exploring Transformative Uncertainty......Page ##Verification, Validation, and Accreditation......Page ##Addressing Errors of Omission and Commission......Page 42
D. v; p: G- U$ xReferences......Page 4##Foundational Work......Page 45
0 n2 P" v8 H- L; `# g0 nThe First Wave......Page 46, [- [# s/ g2 n5 t7 c) K P4 W* y( F
New Capabilities......Page 47
: K" A5 b0 \. A. EIntegrated Assessment Models......Page 49
u" | K4 E0 p; _) @* H) lComparative Use of IAMs......Page 50/ @! [3 ~/ m4 E. u4 o
Comparative Assessments of IAM Structures......Page 51
9 g3 h) u6 J& {! AStatus of and Challenges for Global Model Building and Use......Page 596 K- n! C d9 h8 D8 }
Coverage and Connections......Page 60
+ k1 ?$ M2 g yTransparency and Openness......Page 61
& l: S, W2 t2 _0 A( KChallenges in Model Use: Dealing With Uncertainty......Page 62
6 ]5 r( T$ s$ o A/ bShared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)......Page 6##Other Integrative Analytical Initiatives......Page 65
) P+ w8 e+ y8 @; U" \: L) A( h7 SReferences......Page 66
/ T, V6 r/ P& J! K; o- e$ t5 zStructural Overview of IFs......Page 7##Data Analysis......Page 78
) X7 M/ e; _: VCreation of Scenarios......Page 79
7 R# f2 u' \* t* ^0 }' bUsers and Uses of IFs......Page 80
, | A. \- d- T4 U2 ]Looking Ahead......Page 82% b' e D! e; f% W- }
References......Page 8##Population......Page 88 `! w: r+ g4 j o# x
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 89
$ }* X5 a* C* gDemographic Transitions......Page 91
4 ^7 Z3 i) x# I* gModeling Population, Especially Fertility......Page 9##Population in IFs......Page 96
! S% P) i* G& @* d X) b3 hFertility Rate......Page 97% U- O4 r* ~. s( s9 N
Mortality and Migration......Page 100
; |# O9 Y% q' ILimitations......Page 1013 }# z0 [4 M' k- _+ I6 z
Comparative Scenarios......Page 1027 U: v" j) K8 c2 p# P$ B
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 104; g0 g+ }7 I U; ~
Health Transitions......Page 105" e1 L8 m. j. w; y. ]6 F8 `
Modeling Health, Especially Mortality......Page 106
( M0 S& G+ D! P! H. tHealth in IFs......Page 1088 s9 k- B! }9 y. x: K
The Distal Foundation......Page 1093 Z, O1 }/ ^! y( n2 d3 N
The Risk Assessment Overlay......Page 112) o/ h! A" `- I$ H. l
Combining the Distal and Proximate Risk Drivers......Page 114; I1 f% E# e7 \$ Q K, a( f
Other Important Health Variables......Page 115
8 e, W6 T% b) d% Q; D. d9 UComparative Scenarios......Page 1166 g9 _9 p1 R2 ~% K+ ?+ u
Education......Page 117. ~# r1 g8 x' `4 Y
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 1187 o; t# }+ M2 c
Education Transitions......Page 120
6 f+ z, L5 l: ]5 eModeling Education Progression......Page 1226 n6 W2 C) t# X! L9 A! c/ |7 \
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发表于 2020-7-3 08:19:39