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标题（title）：International Futures: Building and Using Global Models4 V( n' S$ }4 J2 z
国际期货：建立和使用全球模型
Q# ]; k: g4 c+ L作者（author）：Barry Hughes6 M" ?: p: Y% q
出版社（publisher）：Academic Press: B* p z" m5 C7 I1 B- I
大小（size）：13 MB (1#897#42 bytes)
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# b, d! f( L8 \, ] v% uInternational Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system.+ V. k9 @ T1 [ X# u* t$ E
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1 f, h) u5 {8 Q$ s- d1 B8 OFinally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years.; L9 i# J: }/ K) q2 ]8 a& d
Table of contents :
& r0 x" a: u# L! `- l& o; FCover......Page 19 G# `9 t2 T) H1 y1 Q R
INTERNATIONAL! e/ H; f w) ] ~) n
FUTURES
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, Q7 S' K+ f& a8 E/ tBuilding and Using Global Models......Page ##Copyright......Page 40 U/ N8 a# J6 ]7 D, f
Prologue......Page 56 g& X* k A h6 M
Glossary I: Model Acronyms and Abbreviations......Page 7
0 n$ F7 H$ J$ N! bGlossary II: Modeling-Related Concepts, Tools, and Databases......Page 9( I+ q% |% z5 n6 e* ^
Glossary III: Organizations, Projects, and Teams......Page 11
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n; r. _8 E4 W! Z5 L+ FIntroduction......Page 1##What Path Are We On?......Page 14
7 N; h6 m; M5 B% c( o7 s$ TWhat Leverage Do We Have?......Page 15
" `- b, [ E' F- o3 u1 }- QHow Do We Address Uncertainty?......Page 168 U( N2 @- e2 V% |8 V4 C* D7 X
The Plan of the Volume......Page 17
4 t( ^: _( ~( i0 j$ a A. F& gReferences......Page 18
B! b: s6 S: p& v7 O& z3 R, BIdentifying Concepts......Page 19
0 M3 B/ B* e1 M8 sRecognizing Systems......Page 20
. z$ C4 e( ~0 z4 C5 b% lAssembling Data......Page 2##Understanding Past and Ongoing Global Transitions......Page 26
, ^) T, n8 h! B. l+ t+ BMaking Fundamental Choices Concerning Model Type......Page 28
- d: N" [% U' y" a& mBuilding Algorithms......Page ##Making Choices at the Equation Level......Page ##Using Statistical Fit as a Guide, Not a Straitjacket......Page ##Considering Both Distal and Proximate Drivers......Page ##Looking for and Understanding Leverage Points......Page ##Using the Model and Exploring Uncertainty......Page ##Exploring Transformative Uncertainty......Page ##Verification, Validation, and Accreditation......Page ##Addressing Errors of Omission and Commission......Page 42
7 h: @% g5 ?" aReferences......Page 4##Foundational Work......Page 45
) J; q C* r$ }" r# A2 rThe First Wave......Page 46
) v3 `4 Z) |1 d" L8 FNew Capabilities......Page 47
% @! }6 u/ d" \Integrated Assessment Models......Page 49
" w% ?# U2 p# h- ^2 r1 t" F2 KComparative Use of IAMs......Page 50
" ?/ o8 W F% Q/ @9 n% ?9 K/ SComparative Assessments of IAM Structures......Page 51; k, ]; G# @: b
Status of and Challenges for Global Model Building and Use......Page 59% w4 D( S. V- i* J& I) P
Coverage and Connections......Page 60
8 @1 }* H) A0 N% F5 ^Transparency and Openness......Page 61
0 ?6 c5 m$ l0 [% V7 x0 U5 dChallenges in Model Use: Dealing With Uncertainty......Page 62 \* T: j3 a. t! ]% }& |/ A" y
Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)......Page 6##Other Integrative Analytical Initiatives......Page 65
/ V0 \# _6 K; P% t) O9 M* r" @References......Page 66
- _2 S5 s0 ?+ O# y7 o; Q" Z' T8 m$ u/ HStructural Overview of IFs......Page 7##Data Analysis......Page 78! B0 t& ?2 k( l a* W5 J4 e9 j/ K
Creation of Scenarios......Page 79
T J! S4 G, OUsers and Uses of IFs......Page 80/ P* h- j- w. Y- q
Looking Ahead......Page 82/ W+ {# K1 N6 W$ @8 E1 k7 V' J
References......Page 8##Population......Page 88 \+ r: ~+ G7 w9 d% ]; J1 i
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 894 c. G g& X3 N# u$ D% V
Demographic Transitions......Page 91# o9 _' Z& g n
Modeling Population, Especially Fertility......Page 9##Population in IFs......Page 967 ]. W1 l z4 R' L) j1 u. w
Fertility Rate......Page 97
) {0 L! g( J3 ~2 J) s+ JMortality and Migration......Page 100
: |# s9 T" k( X& I- cLimitations......Page 101
+ ?4 Q; F( q1 KComparative Scenarios......Page 102
8 ^7 t/ r- X; ]. S, A% XConcepts, Structures, and Data......Page 104
/ l7 g2 n- H* WHealth Transitions......Page 105* z1 G$ {3 @ u) Q4 @
Modeling Health, Especially Mortality......Page 1062 i$ r3 p- R. B5 K! T. e
Health in IFs......Page 108+ s* j2 B/ [. d! I0 n" l$ \
The Distal Foundation......Page 109, f& @2 X3 c7 ~; T* k0 t
The Risk Assessment Overlay......Page 112
5 [. w8 s- G1 s% vCombining the Distal and Proximate Risk Drivers......Page 114
6 D1 L0 K& E* B( gOther Important Health Variables......Page 115( U6 Q, z) P1 u2 F/ X5 R
Comparative Scenarios......Page 116
0 C9 ]! ^2 R* O5 ~: j% T, M( `1 q& XEducation......Page 117! \4 q3 N* K4 h( v% f; M& D
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 118
' ]2 j9 u7 |! s( HEducation Transitions......Page 120
( O$ ]9 z _. L, V2 nModeling Education Progression......Page 122
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