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标题（title）：International Futures: Building and Using Global Models
n6 d: `& Z. B! M( N国际期货：建立和使用全球模型6 @2 ^' Q8 P, B$ Q% L
作者（author）：Barry Hughes* @7 f: p2 O0 @* Z. } ?) K8 w3 i
出版社（publisher）：Academic Press8 ]* Y' X6 j& V& }/ I0 {
大小（size）：13 MB (1#897#42 bytes)
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& H/ L( z5 u' A- n9 x# t5 uInternational Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system.
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. E0 [0 m" E6 f5 r. o' ZFinally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years.
6 I8 D; H+ y _& ?% pTable of contents : 5 K. W: N7 q$ {) y1 ~: N6 n1 w
Cover......Page 14 G2 Y. D2 i# P8 c. p% F- x
INTERNATIONAL
. f8 M. I% O j; ?% g7 P. `* i' HFUTURES6 q* C( T" Q7 k6 B" T) Q
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$ `% r9 R4 d" y# l: a& D. w8 I/ OBuilding and Using Global Models......Page ##Copyright......Page 4
; g# `- u/ e; ?$ k6 }Prologue......Page 5
- w/ U! K1 J& c/ V! H& ~Glossary I: Model Acronyms and Abbreviations......Page 7
I- I# c9 Y2 LGlossary II: Modeling-Related Concepts, Tools, and Databases......Page 9
# v% ~1 ?8 @) o. J' Y% j! Y) N6 L: ~Glossary III: Organizations, Projects, and Teams......Page 114 u; Z4 X0 r% a# n7 L3 i# Y
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+ h# }5 b1 S9 U- Q& [Introduction......Page 1##What Path Are We On?......Page 14' g; h* A) a5 M8 U H& N3 b6 e
What Leverage Do We Have?......Page 15
7 u7 Q- P5 B: x3 A' XHow Do We Address Uncertainty?......Page 16
0 `) v( D( G5 Z' r7 R$ `- nThe Plan of the Volume......Page 17* l9 E6 r5 V" C5 h' d5 i1 S% m
References......Page 189 g Z. h$ v) e' n: \5 q
Identifying Concepts......Page 193 e: h" c* @& {$ r6 S$ h+ q' d+ u
Recognizing Systems......Page 20: G% E5 x+ m0 J* G( h
Assembling Data......Page 2##Understanding Past and Ongoing Global Transitions......Page 26
8 r' _1 x' f9 v' R6 ~Making Fundamental Choices Concerning Model Type......Page 28
& ?6 O( n* f% D2 ~% K% }Building Algorithms......Page ##Making Choices at the Equation Level......Page ##Using Statistical Fit as a Guide, Not a Straitjacket......Page ##Considering Both Distal and Proximate Drivers......Page ##Looking for and Understanding Leverage Points......Page ##Using the Model and Exploring Uncertainty......Page ##Exploring Transformative Uncertainty......Page ##Verification, Validation, and Accreditation......Page ##Addressing Errors of Omission and Commission......Page 42
- v' {/ L0 ^# [2 qReferences......Page 4##Foundational Work......Page 459 ]5 \9 ^* ]& i
The First Wave......Page 46
9 L( c3 b/ B) Q# z3 k- bNew Capabilities......Page 474 r* H# @0 ^2 ~: U. Q
Integrated Assessment Models......Page 491 w# a1 \# K% W
Comparative Use of IAMs......Page 50 A0 @# `/ Y# g4 U, s! Y+ R; z7 q
Comparative Assessments of IAM Structures......Page 51/ R" H6 F/ A% ]+ U Q# t0 ]
Status of and Challenges for Global Model Building and Use......Page 59) Q u9 l r) k: q) ]! \
Coverage and Connections......Page 60
3 q% q* K9 B9 M- ?$ F; wTransparency and Openness......Page 61
0 _5 s' W F4 ~4 K/ ~# s2 VChallenges in Model Use: Dealing With Uncertainty......Page 62/ @! q4 y3 f4 Q
Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)......Page 6##Other Integrative Analytical Initiatives......Page 652 S$ y( h. l3 D2 q1 z, e. H
References......Page 66
& W" e% I; h% u) G3 j5 yStructural Overview of IFs......Page 7##Data Analysis......Page 78& B' Y8 C2 y, J! r* X' Z
Creation of Scenarios......Page 795 n4 r U& }5 c" g3 l* R$ C) U1 C' a
Users and Uses of IFs......Page 807 {8 z% K( D* Z% I2 c( H3 L
Looking Ahead......Page 82 `4 ?# D- _: m* S2 I+ }
References......Page 8##Population......Page 88
; K- V7 a/ k% d7 q$ XConcepts, Structures, and Data......Page 89
8 o8 s! ?3 I) D. }: GDemographic Transitions......Page 91
- ~2 k! C+ t7 f1 p; VModeling Population, Especially Fertility......Page 9##Population in IFs......Page 96
; D0 W! u+ n% L% J) i# bFertility Rate......Page 97% z; J7 f% X8 I; N' x( g
Mortality and Migration......Page 100
& l3 C3 u; u9 q. N8 X1 J7 Y1 k2 DLimitations......Page 101
3 t: ]5 |3 A L0 SComparative Scenarios......Page 102 I3 z- l' d9 ~
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 104
/ a' y {, X7 DHealth Transitions......Page 105
( [2 Q9 u" }# o( nModeling Health, Especially Mortality......Page 106
5 [; R. I' n) b7 o2 MHealth in IFs......Page 108 I3 i- h/ ]# d8 c: j9 [! P2 I+ q
The Distal Foundation......Page 109
$ @- \! `! \: S* i$ F" A1 ^$ _' @The Risk Assessment Overlay......Page 112
7 f7 M6 R5 v: a6 A, ~/ jCombining the Distal and Proximate Risk Drivers......Page 114! v0 ^; T$ R) D6 Q
Other Important Health Variables......Page 115
6 M6 B9 S' v! ]# QComparative Scenarios......Page 116
8 X, }9 H, w0 P* K( j9 JEducation......Page 117$ Y. M9 B! T/ k3 ^# u
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 118. J0 l7 {; i1 \) L3 H& B# m% X
Education Transitions......Page 120
# x" _; [$ {+ f3 u& }" nModeling Education Progression......Page 122
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发表于 2020-7-3 08:19:39