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标题（title）：International Futures: Building and Using Global Models
6 H6 I' H* ^" b" s8 _' ?国际期货：建立和使用全球模型. A$ N& P, K6 J8 Y
作者（author）：Barry Hughes
+ Q0 J4 W+ [2 U* } ~) ^7 T出版社（publisher）：Academic Press2 P J, L5 e! i: `, ?. L+ o' \
大小（size）：13 MB (1#897#42 bytes)
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International Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system.7 E% [) c) _ i
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$ _9 ^( R( ?7 F1 u3 A6 x" IFinally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years.2 r( G7 ]/ W8 r! G! g
Table of contents : 0 f! D2 t; ^& m) g4 {
Cover......Page 1, T% i6 G) @; M3 W( w T
INTERNATIONAL( [* v+ T4 h7 L" M5 l$ Z! E9 h
FUTURES
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Building and Using Global Models......Page ##Copyright......Page 4' G( B/ o8 E E. z' \
Prologue......Page 5
0 Q4 J! c& h; P, @/ s' t5 i; yGlossary I: Model Acronyms and Abbreviations......Page 7
8 P* N% L, G$ N7 `) l: [ d. jGlossary II: Modeling-Related Concepts, Tools, and Databases......Page 9) d/ V$ l2 @1 t1 s+ T
Glossary III: Organizations, Projects, and Teams......Page 110 {8 G; T( I& {$ X. e
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Introduction......Page 1##What Path Are We On?......Page 14; k' J3 l9 [, ~5 \( t* Q
What Leverage Do We Have?......Page 15* b! E5 s) o( e% w2 M% L
How Do We Address Uncertainty?......Page 16
! b3 ~" V8 x$ Y" ^The Plan of the Volume......Page 17
" t' D5 D( X) ?5 Z& `. BReferences......Page 184 P" ~; k; z' U/ [8 M# c
Identifying Concepts......Page 19# ]1 Z" O- z( i0 U( H( N. o
Recognizing Systems......Page 20) s- ]9 h& g7 L' e
Assembling Data......Page 2##Understanding Past and Ongoing Global Transitions......Page 26* C' n8 Q/ _/ U; y2 a: R$ L
Making Fundamental Choices Concerning Model Type......Page 28
+ |8 I7 r; M. t/ jBuilding Algorithms......Page ##Making Choices at the Equation Level......Page ##Using Statistical Fit as a Guide, Not a Straitjacket......Page ##Considering Both Distal and Proximate Drivers......Page ##Looking for and Understanding Leverage Points......Page ##Using the Model and Exploring Uncertainty......Page ##Exploring Transformative Uncertainty......Page ##Verification, Validation, and Accreditation......Page ##Addressing Errors of Omission and Commission......Page 42' }" Q7 b; A g, G# `# p/ Z/ {
References......Page 4##Foundational Work......Page 454 @6 N1 O {9 u9 Z1 y+ e- e. ^# m
The First Wave......Page 462 |: [0 z* J3 y. q
New Capabilities......Page 47
u0 R1 l5 l2 P3 C) C: U( QIntegrated Assessment Models......Page 49% B* p0 u D% M( D. y9 s
Comparative Use of IAMs......Page 505 n" D& i& A1 ^% b, Y4 S
Comparative Assessments of IAM Structures......Page 513 q @" q- J4 T* e2 G: p/ \
Status of and Challenges for Global Model Building and Use......Page 59. W1 w9 g3 i1 i2 i, R2 u$ ]" t2 l
Coverage and Connections......Page 609 P" K3 m* {( k' O9 \
Transparency and Openness......Page 61
' w7 |( N3 x* L8 p0 o! b8 {0 HChallenges in Model Use: Dealing With Uncertainty......Page 62
4 s+ P' `# v% ?- GShared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)......Page 6##Other Integrative Analytical Initiatives......Page 65
; X- s/ L* O0 ]2 \3 _References......Page 66
J& z! {% u I% I$ HStructural Overview of IFs......Page 7##Data Analysis......Page 78
( R8 M* j/ C- H0 b4 z a hCreation of Scenarios......Page 79
( e8 g' r/ E9 G8 MUsers and Uses of IFs......Page 808 w( w: `2 ], p2 ^/ R- g9 _
Looking Ahead......Page 82' L' Y T2 c- Z' Z& ]
References......Page 8##Population......Page 88
" x8 r2 t4 j+ LConcepts, Structures, and Data......Page 89
3 x( Q) [6 p, L$ J, VDemographic Transitions......Page 91
) Q1 G4 w i) J$ Z/ NModeling Population, Especially Fertility......Page 9##Population in IFs......Page 963 Z# x) H) r- U! g
Fertility Rate......Page 97! W4 [) d1 s" D- t" E0 I+ s/ q
Mortality and Migration......Page 100: \! Z7 ]9 Y7 H# c( g" d
Limitations......Page 101
3 i J7 M: w' J4 _( f" |Comparative Scenarios......Page 102
9 I* h3 M& b; }8 B3 U0 SConcepts, Structures, and Data......Page 104
9 k o5 ~, U, r8 PHealth Transitions......Page 1050 d- t( o7 Z* ^* K2 d. B; @
Modeling Health, Especially Mortality......Page 106
. J1 y a# r) u( ]+ t- M hHealth in IFs......Page 108
% w# k1 B* T# k* R {2 E; ?- ?2 `# tThe Distal Foundation......Page 109
' {+ S% N- q+ G2 g# I* eThe Risk Assessment Overlay......Page 112
* G5 _' c1 x# b% Q' }$ S' CCombining the Distal and Proximate Risk Drivers......Page 114$ u9 x/ c# Y& B$ x5 S. v) s
Other Important Health Variables......Page 1153 q, g+ H# Q9 U2 i1 C0 U
Comparative Scenarios......Page 116 Q5 m# T: K4 V8 w3 a+ D* l0 w
Education......Page 117
, p+ j# Y' g& d5 ?Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 118
& R7 E3 r% X; e* TEducation Transitions......Page 120
7 f" _- G# h7 z2 h8 _( z' {1 \Modeling Education Progression......Page 1227 t. c9 T" I% \" U, f
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发表于 2020-7-3 08:19:39