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& q E& F2 S1 f" V5 h2 T1 Z标题（title）：International Futures: Building and Using Global Models$ `: Z7 c- C. S* A/ B( Q: ~$ _
国际期货：建立和使用全球模型
# C, |- T6 P# k1 j作者（author）：Barry Hughes- j$ H- W7 a) N1 E6 h. q" Q L
出版社（publisher）：Academic Press
9 Q k# P0 a# D' m3 |2 Y大小（size）：13 MB (1#897#42 bytes)
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2 B% H+ o! k; | r* _International Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system.1 G3 E7 |* V0 Y; R. f
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! w( d$ H; v; G+ \4 l% r9 h% vFinally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years.- w) W1 i7 ~' B1 ]/ ]# |
Table of contents :
2 `( \; N4 Y8 I& i3 U; VCover......Page 1
4 t" d$ y/ g/ ?% D BINTERNATIONAL% {9 @0 r/ x+ B! I
FUTURES
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Building and Using Global Models......Page ##Copyright......Page 4
$ k1 J3 a; r, f* u& UPrologue......Page 5
% G" ~6 Z0 Z5 V& }2 FGlossary I: Model Acronyms and Abbreviations......Page 7) Z9 J" C3 n% J1 J4 K$ o7 ^
Glossary II: Modeling-Related Concepts, Tools, and Databases......Page 92 J" \3 f3 E! [; h# v
Glossary III: Organizations, Projects, and Teams......Page 11
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/ {6 M# Z# E' a0 k9 R/ I8 |6 ?1 uIntroduction......Page 1##What Path Are We On?......Page 14
# a- T& I% d3 UWhat Leverage Do We Have?......Page 15
- ~/ n7 q8 J& MHow Do We Address Uncertainty?......Page 16
) ^1 @ v2 z& D' u2 AThe Plan of the Volume......Page 17
& K2 b( S$ w% Y' ?4 V+ T; p9 ~References......Page 18
1 {9 f* N0 q* o( k! CIdentifying Concepts......Page 19
& ~* Q2 [9 t0 mRecognizing Systems......Page 20
- ]$ k; h; `- N+ g+ Z2 s0 TAssembling Data......Page 2##Understanding Past and Ongoing Global Transitions......Page 26$ F P v/ ^* w. @5 W
Making Fundamental Choices Concerning Model Type......Page 28. S1 u' Y2 N0 l$ l0 Q- S
Building Algorithms......Page ##Making Choices at the Equation Level......Page ##Using Statistical Fit as a Guide, Not a Straitjacket......Page ##Considering Both Distal and Proximate Drivers......Page ##Looking for and Understanding Leverage Points......Page ##Using the Model and Exploring Uncertainty......Page ##Exploring Transformative Uncertainty......Page ##Verification, Validation, and Accreditation......Page ##Addressing Errors of Omission and Commission......Page 42
) Z3 w4 O& C# p2 g( W* IReferences......Page 4##Foundational Work......Page 45
- @7 O8 r5 s$ ~The First Wave......Page 46- A% u4 q+ @8 q
New Capabilities......Page 47- \5 I" M6 ~# B3 y/ ?2 R
Integrated Assessment Models......Page 49. E8 T. t, W5 e( R* R
Comparative Use of IAMs......Page 503 H. ?$ `1 k: C, g
Comparative Assessments of IAM Structures......Page 510 K1 ~- h1 E, P( u
Status of and Challenges for Global Model Building and Use......Page 59
, H$ ]* r# ~2 r, gCoverage and Connections......Page 60
& \2 ]7 F9 _1 sTransparency and Openness......Page 615 K0 N7 ^- X) t6 h8 s' i8 b
Challenges in Model Use: Dealing With Uncertainty......Page 62
; T* S1 U& Z+ d/ rShared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)......Page 6##Other Integrative Analytical Initiatives......Page 654 e: @8 s+ B# D
References......Page 66( I: H5 y* v' h. S
Structural Overview of IFs......Page 7##Data Analysis......Page 78( I% B: }& h) _* o9 e( w. B
Creation of Scenarios......Page 790 Y1 t+ n6 B4 d) x$ X, F/ t* k
Users and Uses of IFs......Page 80' j `, F6 Y2 h% _
Looking Ahead......Page 82
9 Z w2 V% K& I) J9 p/ `6 Y9 E; dReferences......Page 8##Population......Page 88
. R7 e$ K' V! A, S3 ?Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 89
2 c; v8 R* X) Y2 t8 HDemographic Transitions......Page 91
! q2 J- n. _7 z7 ~& lModeling Population, Especially Fertility......Page 9##Population in IFs......Page 96# ?6 p5 N6 Z- y7 ~$ m7 Q
Fertility Rate......Page 97
( V1 o+ o' S2 M- S9 }Mortality and Migration......Page 100
8 q: i. a! l9 H4 B9 lLimitations......Page 101
& E" _7 y, }( q5 m" V: F2 |Comparative Scenarios......Page 102- ?8 ^# u& G! w4 Q- o1 R
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 104
0 ]# Y e1 W/ q4 T$ dHealth Transitions......Page 105' P5 R' [' w5 X( G& `
Modeling Health, Especially Mortality......Page 106
) e8 [! O0 W6 f5 d, \# AHealth in IFs......Page 108: s" j1 u7 H0 M: r O/ M
The Distal Foundation......Page 1099 S) S# x1 `3 [0 T7 V
The Risk Assessment Overlay......Page 1124 b; z# w: n5 w5 ]; x! N( Q! t4 {; \
Combining the Distal and Proximate Risk Drivers......Page 114$ V+ }! T" j; G
Other Important Health Variables......Page 115, n Z$ F8 ?; B! {! d
Comparative Scenarios......Page 116
" m& y1 P7 t- n1 P/ M8 _! [Education......Page 117
! g+ I/ F, |$ j: a& uConcepts, Structures, and Data......Page 118
9 R, x( b5 V% Z% a: c7 MEducation Transitions......Page 120
+ ^8 w- b0 }6 c: F# H* ^1 X) RModeling Education Progression......Page 122
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发表于 2020-7-3 08:19:39