the future can not remain so high. According to our estimates, the next 13% average growth rate during the still decreasing. Decline in investment, labor negative growth,[url=[第一私募论坛]http://www.simu001.cn]elbrellin.it/hogan-interactive/]hogan interactive], assuming productivity changes in the past to maintain a trend, then, the potential growth rate will decline. "Economic Information Daily": that is, the supply of labor is the impact of a potential growth rate of important variables, and workforce reduction is a foregone conclusion, that rely on it to make up for the missing piece? Cai Fang: We first need to analyze the source of future growth in China where it is. Economic growth comes from the following aspects: the accumulation of capital.
, l* J4 P; R" q% C the amount of labor, human capital, the dependency ratio, and labor from low-productivity agriculture to non-agricultural resources brought to reconfigure have played an important role in economic development. Analysis found that the overall economic development is inseparable from the role of our country's population, and now China's population structure and trends have changed,[url=[第一私募论坛]http://www.simu001.cn]previsioniastrali.it/category/hogan-uomo-scarpe/]hogan uomo scarpe], other factors also affect economic growth will change accordingly. Economic slowdown also reasonable. With the 15-59 year-old working-age population reached its peak in 2010,[url=[第一私募论坛]http://www.simu001.cn]siasprint.it/hogan/]hogan], the last two years is absolutely a decreasing trend, the population dependency ratio began to increase,[url=[第一私募论坛]http://www.simu001.cn]newvas.it/category/golden-goose-sito-ufficiale/]golden goose sito ufficiale], marking the disappearance of the demographic dividend in China. Absolute reduction in the number of labor-type population,[url=[第一私募论坛]http://www.simu001.cn]elbrellin.it/hogan-sneakers/]hogan sneakers], labor force growth is clearly negative. The average growth rate of investment is 16%.* a, H/ C5 p- E: {2 I. p3 Y
director of the Population Research Institute of Economy and Labor Cai Fang ? correspondent reports from Beijing Jinhui Chinese Academy of Sciences, the Institute of Population and Labor Economics Cai Fang, director of the "Economic Information Daily" reporters,[url=[第一私募论坛]http://www.simu001.cn]vrouwentellen.nl/category/parajumpers/]parajumpers], the demographic dividend is sustainable source of economic growth in China, with the disappearance of the demographic dividend, the government through reform of the household registration system , immediate release system bonus, raise potential growth. He is also in favor of the family planning policy adjustments. "Economic Information Daily": 30 years, China's sustained and rapid economic growth, creating a world "miracle." Many people affect the "demographic dividend" as a critical factor. Your conclusion is what? Cai Fang: Since the 1990s,[url=[第一私募论坛]http://www.simu001.cn]quvi.it/]outlet hogan online], research on the relationship between economic growth and the demographic transition has obvious breakthrough. Previously.
& g' U/ I' h3 I- q9 b8 m research in this area focused on the relationship between the observed long-term population size or population growth and economic growth performance between the conclusion does not determine that the evidence of a positive or negative relationship exists. However,[url=[第一私募论坛]http://www.simu001.cn]criminal-minds.it/hogan-outlet/]hogan outlet], when the focus shifted to the observation of the study population age structure and economic growth performance relationship, it was found that working-age population continues to grow and continued to increase the production of such a population structure,[url=[第一私募论坛]http://www.simu001.cn]piazzadelgesu46.it/category/hogan-scarpe-uomo/]hogan scarpe uomo], by ensuring an adequate supply of labor and savings rates improve,[url=[第一私募论坛]http://www.simu001.cn]akura.it/hogan-borse/]hogan borse], providing an additional source of economic growth,[url=[第一私募论坛]http://www.simu001.cn]akura.it/hogan-shoes/]hogan shoes], namely demographic dividend. The study found that of the labor force (ie the population between 15-59 years of age) has continued to increase in 2010, the population dependency ratio (the number of non-working age,[url=[第一私募论坛]http://www.simu001.cn]forumnapoli2013.it/]scarpe hogan], total population and the number of working-age ratio) declining, adequate labor supply, population burden lighter, and the remaining economic growth continue to accumulate,[url=[第一私募论坛]http://www.simu001.cn]vrouwentellen.nl/category/parajumpers-dames/]parajumpers dames], there has been a high savings rate, high economic growth rate, which is the demographic dividend. "Economic Information Daily": the role of the demographic dividend to boost China's economic growth should be how to observe? Cai Fang: In the past 30 years of rapid economic growth among the largest contribution of capital, accounting for 70%. Although the accumulation of capital reflected the accumulation of physical capital, but also closely related to demographic factors. First, low population dependency ratio provides high savings, high accumulation, high investment necessary conditions; secondly,[url=[第一私募论坛]http://www.simu001.cn]spot2013.nl/category/parajumper-jas/]parajumper jas], due to the abundant supply of labor,[url=[第一私募论坛]http://www.simu001.cn]infosite.it/hogan-outlet-roma/]hogan outlet roma], delayed the emergence of the law of diminishing returns of capital, capital investment continues to pay off,[url=[第一私募论坛]http://www.simu001.cn]piazzadelgesu46.it/category/hogan-uomo-dress/]hogan uomo dress], the economy can continue to speed development; and third.1 k4 t0 U7 g% ]/ y
labor force growth, improve human capital,[url=[第一私募论坛]http://www.simu001.cn]infosite.it/hogan-olympia-donna/]hogan olympia donna], decrease dependency ratio, improved resource allocation and technological progress. China's economic growth mainly depends on the past accumulation of capital, decline in the labor force increased and the dependency ratio. After the turning point,[url=[第一私募论坛]http://www.simu001.cn]newvas.it/category/golden-goose-milano/]golden goose milano], the contribution of capital accumulation will naturally decline, the contribution of labor force growth will become zero, the contribution of the dependency ratio will be reduced down to zero or even negative. & Nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; China's future economic growth must rely on human capital, resource allocation and technological progress. All these elements are available only through the reform can. 2011-2020, the potential growth rate will naturally continue to decline. We do not want to use way to stimulate demand to stimulate growth.
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发表于 2016-1-6 12:54:10