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今日大盘:市场真的要风格切换?

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发表于 2015-12-3 08:59:00 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
【宏观分析及市场重要信息】
( y& r+ Y: S$ y$ N" p    继房地产暴动后,昨天金融股又接过了大旗,蓝筹活跃带动上证指数收出中阳,而题材股明显萎靡,前期活跃的主题纷纷居跌幅榜前列,以致于目前市场观点纷纷聚焦风格切换,下面来谈谈我们对此的看法。我们认为近几天市场呈现出的风格切换与估值溢价的年底回归有很大关系。记得早在9月底10月初的时候,我们看好中小创相对上证指数的反弹高度,认为创业板会走出一波独立的行情,当时是基于几个原因:一是大盘蓝筹股未来容易被证伪,而中小创很多逻辑无法证伪;二是IPO暂停、金融创新步伐放缓使壳资源、并购等价值得以提高;三是少量存量资金能够撬动的只有中小创。目前来看,变化最大的是第二个原因,IPO已重启,而且据媒体报道,股票发行注册制正式推出有望早于《证券法》的修订整体完成,虽然发行制度变革是渐进式的,不会一蹴而就,而我们的注册制也不会是完全意义上的注册制,但对制度推出的预期还是会反映在证券市场上,这种预期的反映会引起对超高溢价的纠正。而大盘蓝筹股,一是出于市场对供给侧改革的预期,二是人民币加入SDR后,容易使市场预期诸如“大金融”、房地产等会受益于资产重估,再加上相对中小创的估值优势,会给资金一定的安全感,这也是近几天蓝筹活跃的主要原因。不过我们认为今年12月的蓝筹行情与12年和14年底的蓝筹行情相比,有明显的不同,最大的不同就在于资金性质。前两次都是源于新增资金的入场,而此次从市场成交量看,新增资金迹象并不明显,还是存量资金的结构调整。而且从我们接触的公募私募等机构来看,前期受益最明显的是持有中小创的,而在12月份这个敏感的时点,这些机构更倾向于对成长股获利了结来守住自己的“胜利果实”,所以配置调整的迹象很明显。也正基于此,我们认为今年12月的风格切换大概率上是一个偏短期的切换过程,最主要原因是在于没有新增资金的存量博弈很难使这种切换持续。' T# }1 `+ Z" P+ M: t$ X
    外围方面,美国11月ADP就业人数+21.7万,预期19.0万,前值18.2万,不错的就业数据再度增加美联储加息预期。而且耶伦周三也称,推迟加息太久会存在未来突然紧缩的风险,她“期待”看到美联储货币政策正常化。尽管美联储将在本月15日再度投票决定是否加息,但加息的可能已经非常大了。虽然因为美联储加息已在市场的充分预期之中而可能不会对市场产生很大影响,但近期人民币贬值的预期还是很强烈的,这也导致了昨天盘中受益人民币贬值概念股的活跃。
5 P/ I; v; [% h0 L+ X; K    市场走势上,我们认为后市新增资金是关键,在没有新增资金的情况下,风格切换很难持续,依然维持12月整体震荡的判断,仍建议操作谨慎,仍看好12月以后的中期行情。
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发表于 2015-12-3 09:11:03 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2015-12-3 09:15:44 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2015-12-3 09:22:13 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2015-12-30 21:27:08 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2015-12-30 23:23:24 | 显示全部楼层

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